As Ronald Reagan said decades ago, “The nine scariest words in the English language are 'I’m from the Government and I’m here to help.'” David Lutz, managing director & head of ETF trading at Stifel Nicolaus, says the gang in DC is on the verge of helping U.S. markets crumble for the second time in three years.

It may not come as a complete shock to investors. Lutz sees evidence that money professionals are starting to buy options protection against the possibility of market declines in October and November. The major culprit sounds familiar: the debt ceiling.

The same fight that took stocks down nearly 17% in less than a month in 2011 is bubbling up again and it doesn't look like there's an easy solution.

Related: Shots Fired in Debt Ceiling Debate: Here We Go Again!

On the one side Lutz says the GOP is “fragmented” in terms of what they want to ask for in negotiations. The same division between the centrist and extreme conservatives is creating a lack of focus that's deadly in negotiations. Democrats don’t seem inclined to care because they aren’t prepared to give an inch on entitlement reform.

Basically if the GOP doesn’t roll over completely it looks like we’ve got another mess on our hands. Here’s a spoiler alert: the GOP isn’t going to roll over completely if any of the members want to get reelected.

The markets were poised to head higher Friday after two days of bruising losses, with the Dow (^DJI) dropping a cringe-worthy 225 points Thursday. The losses were pegged to jobless claims and inflation data, stoking fears that the Fed will start to taper its monthly $85 billion bond-buying program this fall.

Related: The $4 Trillion Choice: Why the Stakes Are So High for Next Fed Chair

To get a more complete picture of what’s driving equity markets right now, we talked to Jeremy Hill, managing partner at TF Market Advisors, at a New York-based research, consulting, and asset management firm.

The market is “a little like a badger,” Hill tells The Daily Ticker, invoking his Wisconsin days growing up. “It’s a cute, fluffy animal. My kids want to play with it, but it’s tenacious; it’s got nails. It’s an aggressive market right now.”

Hill names a few factors in the recent sell-off that have brought the badger claws out. He says volumes are light and people are away. Right now, “when you