Blog Posts by Aaron Task

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    Lehman Brothers filed for bankruptcy four years ago this week, plunging the global economy into chaos and triggering massive bailouts of the financial sector. Few bailouts were as controversial or scary as the government's rescue of AIG, which ultimately totaled $182 billion in multiple installments.

    After selling 554 million shares of AIG on Monday -- the fifth such sale in the past 18 months — the U.S. Treasury Department has reduced its stake in the insurer to 22% from 92% in early 2011. More importantly, the Treasury says it has now turned a profit of $12.4 billion on the AIG bailout.

    The Treasury's claim is somewhat controversial: Neil Barofsky, former TARP Special Inspector General, says the Treasury's cost basis on AIG is $43.53 a share, not the $28.73 cited by Treasury. (Monday's sale was at $32.50 per share.)

    Barofsky is "technically correct that if you isolate the original cost to TARP for its investment in AIG," writes DealBook's Andrew

    Read More »from AIG Bailout Better Than Expected for Taxpayers, (Still) Even Better for Banks
  • Next Wednesday, Apple (AAPL) is slated to unveil the iPhone 5 -- the latest in a series of magical devices that have captured the world's imagination. Given its incredible success with consumers and phenomenal stock price gains, Apple has come to symbolize the best of American ingenuity, technology and innovation.

    But Apple actually represents the worst of American business, according to award-winning journalists Donald Barlett and James Steele.

    In their latest book, The Betrayal of the American Dream, Barlett and Steele cite Apple as a prime example of an American outsourcer.

    Apple products are still conceived and designed in the U.S. but the company "very quickly" made the decision to manufacture its goods in other countries, Steele observes. "That manufacturing base, the heart of so much American middle class is very quickly yanked out."

    In the 1990s, Apple products were produced at plants in Elk Grove, Calif. and Fountain, Colo. In the Colorado Springs area, Bartlett and Steele

    Read More »from Apple Represents the WORST of American Business, Not the Best: Barlett & Steele
  • The U.S. economy added 96,000 jobs in August, far below the consensus of 130,000 and miles off the "whisper" number of 200,000. In addition, July's tally was revised down to 141,000 from 163,000.

    The unemployment rate unexpectedly fell to 8.1% from 8.3% and the "real" unemployment rate (U6) fell to 14.7% from 15%, figures the White House will likely highlight as signs the president's policies are working.

    But the unemployment rate came down for the "wrong" reason -- a sharp drop in the size of the labor force. The labor participation rate fell to 65.3%, its lowest level since September 1981.

    Let's take a look at today's report from three different angles: political, economic and market.

    After the Dems Party, a Jobs 'Hangover'

    Friday's jobs report will give fodder to both sides of the political debate. As noted above, the White House is likely to tout the decline in the unemployment rate and the fact that August is the 30th month of consecutive private sector job gains.

    "While there is

    Read More »from Jobs Data Disconnect from Consumer Spending, Markets Disconnect from Reality
  • A week ahead of Apple's widely expected unveiling of the iPhone 5, Nokia (NOK) and Motorola are each launching their latest smartphones today.

    Nokia is expected to launch it latest Lumia phone running on the Windows 8 operating system while Motorola is expected to unveil a new Droid Razr M smartphone running on Android.

    At separate events in New York, both handset makers will try to make a splash and steal some thunder from Apple (AAPL) ahead of the iPhone 5. It's a bold strategy but one destined to fail, according to Brian White, managing director of tech research at Topeka Capital Markets.

    "I think it's a big mistake," White says of the strategy of trying to front-run the iPhone. "For a lot of these companies it's a Hail Mary [pass]. One last chance to put out a blockbuster and compete against the iPhone."

    The bottom line, White says, is the Nokia and Motorola brands have "deteriorated significantly" and it's going to be nearly impossible for them to steal mind share — much less

    Read More »from Nokia, Motorola Try to Front-Run Apple’s iPhone 5: “It’s a Hail Mary,” Analyst Says
  • There's been a lot of talk in recent years about the "hollowing out" of the American middle class. A new study by the National Employment Law Project (NELP) confirms the troubling trend.

    NELP broke down jobs into low/ middle/and high-wage groups based on median incomes. Looking at the period from early 2008 through the first quarter of 2012, the study found:

    • "High-wage" occupations accounted for 19% of the jobs lost during the Great Recession and 20% of the jobs gained during the recovery.
    • "Mid-wage" occupations suffered 60% of job losses during the recession but only 22% of the growth during the recovery.
    • "Low-wage" occupations accounted for 21% of the losses and a whopping 58% of the growth.

    In other words, NELP found what many Americans already know: The market for middle class jobs has shrunk and most of the jobs that have been created during the recession are in low-income areas like retail and food services.

    "In short, America's good jobs deficit continues," NELP said in a

    Read More »from Lost Middle-Class Jobs Being Replaced by Burger-Flipping and Retail Gigs: NELP Study
  • Oil Has Peaked But No Relief at Pump Likely Soon: Analyst

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    Crude futures hit a 2-week low Thursday as the damage wrought by Hurricane Isaac on oil and gas facilities in the Gulf was not as bad as feared.

    "We were lucky. I think we really dodged a bullet," says Andrew Lebow, senior VP of energy futures at Jefferies Bache.

    With crude stocks 30 million barrels above the average of the past four years, Lebow believes the recent run-up ahead of Isaac could mark a near-term peak for West Texas Intermediate (. The U.S. benchmark will likely settle into a $90 to $100 range "with a bias to the downside," he says.

    [Related: Gas Prices Will Continue to Rise Until U.S. Builds More Refineries: GasBuddy Analyst]

    While that will result in some relief at the pump — between 5 and 10 cents per gallon — Lebow notes gasoline supplies are "on the low end." Given planned downtime, i.e. "turnarounds" — at refineries both here and in Europe, "I'm not sure we'll see all that much relief [at the pump] so quickly," he says.

    There's

    Read More »from Oil Has Peaked But No Relief at Pump Likely Soon: Analyst
  • How the GOP Keeps Distracting Voters from Obama’s Biggest Weakness

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    The latest WSJ/NBC poll shows President Obama leading Mitt Romney 48 percent to 44 percent and is outpacing his rival on issues such as likability.

    But President Obama is clearly vulnerable on a number of levels as 54 percent of those polled disapprove of his handling of the economy and 61 percent believe the country is heading in the wrong direction.

    These findings are generally consistent with other national polls and show the opportunity Mitt Romney has to defeat the President.

    But Romney and the Republicans are hurting themselves by focusing on issues other than Obama's primary area of weakness, says Greg Valliere, chief political strategist at The Potomac Research Group in Washington, D.C.

    "You'd think the GOP would hammer away, 24-7 on jobs and the economy," Valliere says. "That's the great albatross for Obama, yet the Republicans keep getting sidetracked."

    Romney's choice of Paul Ryan as his running mate clearly elevated the importance of

    Read More »from How the GOP Keeps Distracting Voters from Obama’s Biggest Weakness
  • Jon Corzine: Taken to Task for Excessive Chutzpah

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    Russell Wasendorf of Peregrine Financial was indicted last week on 31 counts of lying to regulators and robbing his firm's clients of about $200 million.

    Wasendorf, who plead "not guilty" to the charges, faces up to 155 years in jail.

    Meanwhile, The New York Times reports, NO charges are likely against Jon Corzine or other senior execs of MF Global -- where $1.6 billion of customer funds remain missing nearly a year after the futures brokers filed for bankruptcy.

    Which brings us back to a segment we call Taken to Task.

    Look, I get that proving a crime is tough, but when the guy accused of stealing $200 million goes to jail and the guy who can't account for $1.6 billion is likely to get off scott free, something is very wrong.

    In case you didn't know, Jon Corzine is a former CEO of Goldman Sachs, a former senator and governor of New Jersey and a former major fundraiser for President Obama. It's really hard to be more "high-powered" and "connected"

    Read More »from Jon Corzine: Taken to Task for Excessive Chutzpah
  • J.C. Penney (JCP) is not a specialty retailer in the classic definition of the term, but it's clearly become a very "special" situation.

    Second-quarter results, released a week ago, show the retailer's continued struggles after CEO Ron Johnson instituted a series of new initiatives that alienated and confused its core consumer base. J.C. Penney posted a wider-than-expected loss of 37 cents per share as total sales fell nearly 23% and same-store sales were down 21.7%.

    Despite the grim results, Liz Dunn, senior analyst at Macquarie, is bullish on J.C. Penney; she has an "outperform" rating on the stock and raised her price target to $37 from $35 after the earnings call.

    Dunn gives J.C. Penney management credit for attempting a "dramatic transformation of the business," featuring new brands, new pricing strategy and major cost cutting.

    Most dramatically of all, Penney is "kinda firing their customer base a little bit," Dunn says. "They're not saying they want to fire their customers, but

    Read More »from J.C. Penney Is “Firing Its Customer Base,” But Analyst Sees Reason for Optimism
  • Facebook Bull: Stock Going Lower Before It Goes Higher

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    Tuesday was a big day for Facebook (FB) as 13F filings showed hedge fund heavyweights Moore Capital, George Soros, Steven A. Cohen's SAC
    Capital and Tiger Management took positions ranging from 15,000 shares to 2 million shares.

    Apparently, none of these presumably savvy investors were dissuaded by the coming lockup expiration that ultimately could bring nearly 2 billion additional shares onto the market between now and next May. Given Facebook issued 'just' 421 million shares at its ill-fated IPO in May, the potential for that huge new supply of stock is reason for caution, says one of the more bullish sell-side analysts who follow the stock.

    Ken Sena, managing director at Evercore Partners, has a $34 price target on Facebook, citing its long-term potential to unlock the trove of data it has on its roughly 1 billion users. At about $4 per user, advertisers are currently paying Facebook a much lower rate than the $30 per user Google (GOOG)

    Read More »from Facebook Bull: Stock Going Lower Before It Goes Higher

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