Blog Posts by Aaron Task

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With the notable exception of housing, the U.S. economy has been on a fairly strong uptrend in recent months.

But this is "as good as it's going to get," says Srinivas Thiruvadanthai, director of research at the Jerome Levy Forecasting Center, predicting the economy will cool considerably this spring. The U.S. "is in all probability headed for a marked slowdown."

Thiruvadanthai's downbeat, but not dire, view is based primarily on a belief that an unseasonably warm winter, along with the Fed's uber-easy policy, has artificially inflated the economy by giving a boost to construction.

On Tuesday, the January durable goods report was markedly weaker than expected, which supports Thiruvadanthai's thesis. Still, he concedes the data series is famously "noisy" and likely hit in January by the expiration of the 100% depreciation expense tax benefit.

For the rest of 2012, Jerome Levy's official forecast is a 35% chance of recession if Europe

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That America faces a growing threat from China's rise is a story that's gotten a lot of attention in recent years and is garnering some heated rhetoric on the campaign trail this year. Former Wall Street executive Peter Kiernan takes it to another level in his new book, as the title suggests: Becoming China's Bitch.

"Paranoia is appropriate for us in relation to China," he writes. "What we are facing is nothing less than a test of American independence."

Unlike what you might have read by other pundits -- or heard during the GOP debates -- Kiernan does not necessarily believe the U.S. should take a hard line with China or that conflict is unavoidable. (See: Niall Ferguson: U.S. Empire in Decline, on Collision Course with China)

"Our fate is connected with China, no mater what," he says. "The only way to manage this process is much more fully embrace them." (See: Goldman's Jim O'Neill: "Our Future Prosperity Depends on China")

And by

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Oil and gas futures dipped Monday but the relentless surge in energy prices is very likely to continue in the days and weeks ahead, according to Fadel Gheit, senior energy analyst at Oppenheimer.

In fact, Gheit believes oil prices could go "much higher" — with Brent crude surging into the $160-$170 per barrel range vs. around $124 currently — in the not too distant future because of ongoing tensions with Iran. Such a surge would undoubtedly put further upward pressure on gasoline and other refined products. (See: The Looming Threat to Gas Prices: Strait of Hormuz Explained)

A supply disruption in the Strait of Hormuz is a "nightmare scenario" and the situation with Iran is "coming to a head," he tells Henry in the accompanying video. Tensions between Iran and the U.S. and its allies have been rising in recent weeks over concerns about Iran's nuclear capabilities. On Friday, the International Atomic Agency reported Iran has increased

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Bank of America this week announced it is severely cutting back sales of loans to Fannie Mae. The move is part of Bank of America's (BAC) ongoing efforts to undo the damage of its ill-fated acquisition of Countrywide Financial in 2008, but could have broader implications if other big banks follow suit.

To date, Bank of America has paid Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac $2.6 billion to settle demands from the GSEs that the bank buy back mortgages that have gone sour, or were wrongly underwritten. Bank of America cited "ongoing differences" with Fannie Mae over these repurchase claims as a rationale for severely curtailing its dealings with Fannie. In December, the bank underwrote just $3.5 billion of loans backed by Fannie, Freddie or Ginnie Mae vs. $21.9 billion in December 2010, The WSJ reports.

The practical implications of this decision is it will be harder for consumers to get a home loan from Bank of America, which has already stopped

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With its roaring engines and Red-state roots, NASCAR would seem the most unlikely place for a green energy push. But NASCAR has the largest recycling program in professional sports and CEO Brian France says the company is committed to reducing its carbon footprint and being more energy efficient.

"It's not just what fuels the cars, it's what powers the industry and powers the events," France says. "It may be relatively a small amount [of energy] but we can take a leadership role. Our fans really appreciate that, our partners do and it's working for us."

In addition to the recycling program, NASCAR has a solar farm at Pocono Raceway; it's the track's primary source of electricity and provides power to more than 250 homes in the local area, according to NASCAR.

After holding two "Green Energy" summits, NASCAR last year introduced an ethanol-based fuel, Sunoco's (SUN) Green E15, which grew (pun intended) out of its partnership with

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Retail shares were generally and in some case sharply higher Thursday following a string of fourth-quarter earnings that showed an all-too familiar pattern: The high-end is doing just fine while stores tailored to low- and middle-income Americans continue to struggle.

In sharp contrast to the uptrend in share prices Thursday, Howard Davidowitz of Davidowitz & Associates is extremely downbeat on a number of big box retailers, including:

• Sears (SHLD): "Terrible. An absolute train wreck." (And, yes, the stock is surging today on hopes Eddie Lampert's latest restructuring plan will turn the ship.)
• Target (TGT): "Better than expected but earnings are still down."
• Dillards (DDS): "Not doing so terrific."
• Kohl's (KSS): Ditto
• Bon-Ton (BONT): "On life support."
• J.C. Penney (JCP): "Reinventing themselves. I think it'll be another train wreck." (For the other side of the story, see: J.C. Penney CEO: We Can Become America's Favorite Store)

In

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Woody Brock is mad as hell and he's not going to take it anymore.

Brock, founder of Strategic Economic Decisions and author of American Gridlock: Why the Left and Right Are Both Wrong, hardly seems the Howard Beale type. He's an Ivy League-educated policy wonk with five degrees, including a Ph.D. from Princeton in mathematical economics and political philosophy. Yet he's pissed off just the same.

"We are mortgaging our children's future and I'm mad about it," he says. "I believe when this country takes lightly the concept of equality of opportunity, we're in real trouble. This is a country where anyone who works hard can own that Rolls Royce down the street, or at least has a shot at it."

By focusing attention on income inequality, Brock believes the Occupy Wall Street movement and its global progeny are on the right track, even if they're somewhat disorganized. "These guys are right," he says, referring to the Occupy crowd as idiot

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Global oil prices jumped to a nine-month high Tuesday to $106 a barrel after Iran announced it was stopping oil shipments to France and Britain. Iran is responding to heavy pressure from America, Europe and other allies, who want to stop the country's nuclear power program before the radical regime can build nuclear weapons.

This most recent move by Iran to ban oil exports to the two European countries comes as a direct preemptive response to the European Union's planned Iran oil embargo set for this summer. The EU has already frozen assets of Iran's central bank.

In recent weeks, you've also probably heard news stories about Iran threatening to shut down the Strait of Hormuz. It hasn't happened yet, but Iran has indicated it could close the Strait or take other measures should the country feel threatened enough by the Western allies.

But right now you might be wondering: What is the Strait of Hormuz and why does it matter TO YOU?