Blog Posts by Bernice Napach

The countdown clocks are ticking (just look at any cable news outlet today to see the tick-tock).

Maya MacGuineas has been fighting for less debt and more fiscal responsibility in Washington for more than 10 years. So when MacGuineas, president of the Committee for a Responsible Federal Budget, says, "There's a very significant risk" that the government will shut down, there is a very good chance it will. "There is no plan for keeping [the government] funded," she tells The Daily Ticker. "'It's very likely that [Congress] falls into a shutdown even if they don't mean to..."

Related: The Upside to a Closed Government

The Senate is expected to reject the latest House bill that would defund Obamacare as a condition for keeping the government open for business. Unless the House backs down, various parts of the U.S. government will shut down at midnight. Former Republican Senator Alan Simpson told The Wall Street Journal this raises the risks around the debt ceiling fight too:

“It’s going

On Tuesday, October 1, Americans can sign up for health insurance under the Affordable Care Act (also known as Obamacare). You've probably heard repeatedly arguments for and against the new law, including bits and pieces from Republican Senator Ted Cruz's (R-TX) 21-hour talkathon quasi-filibuster on the Senate floor earlier this week.

Related: Gullible Americans Fuel Obamacare's Bad Rap

Aaron Smith is a fan of Obamacare. He's the co-founder and executive director of Young Invincibles, an organization dedicated to expanding economic opportunities for young people. Smith tells The Daily Ticker that about 90% of the 19 million uninsured young people in the U.S. will "qualify for tax credits that are going to make health insurance more affordable than ever before and [with] higher quality."

How much coverage they get and the price they pay will depend on what plan they choose, where they live and the tax credits--i.e., subsidies--they qualify for. Health care insurance exchanges are

More good news on the housing market, despite the rise in mortgage rates. The latest S&P/Case-Shiller home price index gained 12.4% in July vs. a year ago--its strongest showing since early 2006. But on a month-to-month-basis, prices rose at a slower pace--1.8% in the 20-city composite of the index compared to 2.2% in June.

Related: Big Drop in Housing Starts Suggests a More Shaky Recovery: BNP Economist

"Overall the housing market is steadily gaining but it does have several headwinds--higher mortgage rates and very tight inventory," says Diana Olick, real estate correspondent at CNBC. Thirty-year fixed mortgage rates are now at 4.5%, up from 3.7% a year ago.

Related: Housing Bubble Deflated by Rising Rates

While home prices are rising--along with the stock prices of homebuilders--Olick tells The Daily Ticker they haven't moved high enough for some sellers who are still underwater (homeowners who owe more on their mortgages than their houses are worth).

Related: Housing Market Won't

If not now, when? That's the question many economists and investors have been asking about Fed policy since the central bank decided Wednesday not to taper its $85 billion worth of monthly asset purchases.

In its statement, the Fed said that "tightening of financial conditions observed in recent months, if sustained, could slow the pace of improvement in the economy and labor market." So it decided to wait for "more evidence that progress will be sustained before adjusting the pace of its purchases."

Related: Will the Fed Fail Again? "Money for Nothing Filmmaker is Worried

Neil Irwin, columnist at the Washington Post and author of the book The Alchemists: Three Central Bankers and a World on Fire, says "the earliest" the Fed could taper would be in October, at its next meeting, but it could wait until its "December meeting or even after that."

"The Fed wants to make clear they're not on a preset time schedule," says Irwin. "They're looking at the data, at what's hanging over the U.S.

The Fed may just have delivered an early Christmas present to the financial markets. After the Fed announced it would not taper its asset purchases, as many investors had expected, financial markets rallied, from stocks to bonds and even gold. While the S&P 500 surged 1.2% to a record high yesterday, gold prices have soared 5% and are at $1,367 an ounce in early morning trading Thursday.

In a statement following its meeting the Fed said it "decided to await more evidence that [economic] progress will be sustained before adjusting the pace of purchases." Fed Chairman Ben Bernanke explained in a press conference, “Conditions in the job market today still are far from what all of us would like to see," and “the tightening of financial conditions observed in recent months, if sustained, could slow the pace of improvement in the economy and the labor market.”

In response to Bernanke's comments, gold – which had been retreating in part because of expectations of tapering – is on a tear this

Here we go again.

Another big budget battle is brewing on Capitol Hill and the possibility of another shutdown of the federal government becomes more real every day. Republicans are threatening to stop funding the government–by not raising the debt limit–if they can’t simultaneously defund Obamacare. Congressional Democrats and the White House are refusing to make that deal.

Treasury Secretary Jacob Lew said Tuesday, “There are not and will not be negotiations about the debt limit” and the White House budget office Wednesday directed federal agencies to prepare for a potential government shutdown. President Obama, speaking before the Business Roundtable on Wednesday, accused a “faction” of House Republicans of using the debt ceiling threat to “extort a president” and “governing party.”

Related: Congress Will Play a "Game of Political Chicken" Over Debt Ceiling & Budget: Knox

“There’s a real risk of a government shutdown,” Douglas Holtz-Eakin, president of American Action Forum, a

At last count, more than 350 economists, 38 female House Democrats and about 17 Senators have signed letters to President Obama urging him to nominate Fed Vice Chair Janet Yellen as the next Chairman of the Fed. She emerged as the frontrunner for the job now that Larry Summers, a former economic advisor to the president and Treasury Secretary under President Clinton, has withdrawn his name from consideration.

Related: Larry Summers Out; Obama "Mishandled“ the Fed Nominating Process, Says Economist

While Congressional members and economists push their pick for Fed chair, international investor Jim Rogers tells The Daily Ticker: it doesn’t matter who Obama picks because all Fed Chair candidates “are lapdogs for the establishment.” He expects any new Fed chair will continue current policy, which he says is “insane.”

"They should stop all of this, printing $1 trillion every year,” says Rogers, author of “Street Smarts: Adventures on the Road and in the Markets.” He explains: “The world

When the next financial crisis hits, don’t be surprised if investors choose the euro over the U.S. dollar as the safe haven of choice.

“When the Syrian crisis flared up [this week] the money went to the euro, not to the dollar,” says Axel Merk, president and chief investment officer of Merk Investments. “That doesn’t mean the dollar is not a safe haven anymore but they are competitors,” says Merk, referring to the euro and the dollar.

“The euro is cursed to go higher,” says Merk. “There’s value to be had where there was money in the streets.”

Related: Don't Want to Fight the Fed? Euro Architect Offers an Alternative

One reason for that value, says Merk, is the balance sheet of the European Central Bank which is shrinking as the ECB “mops up” liquidity. In contrast, the Fed hasn’t even begun to reduce its balance sheet which tops $3.6 trillion, though there is talk of “tapering” asset purchases to begin that process.

The euro has been gaining not only against the dollar but also