Blog Posts by Elizabeth Trotta

Worrisome spending trends and the effects of the superstorm that has devastated the mid-Atlantic region are among the factors that are leading some economists, with only weeks remaining in 2012,  to downgrade their estimates for fourth-quarter U.S. growth.

Individually, the impact of Sandy, the election, the fiscal cliff, business spending and how consumers are approaching the holiday season is difficult to discern. But each new economic report is offering an additional pixel to the big picture.

The U.S. government reported last week that the nation's economy grew at an annualized rate of 2.7% in the third quarter, up from a previously reported 2%. However, a buildup in inventories and a notable downward revision to consumer spending kept the excitement in check.

[Read More: GDP Improves for All the Wrong Reasons]

JPMorgan chief U.S. economist Michael Feroli revised lower his expectation for fourth-quarter growth by half a percentage point -- to 1.5% annualized growth, from 2% -- late

Months of record low rates have lured buyers, and even more so, refinancers, to apply for new loans. But the Mortgage Bankers' Association expects the tide in refinancing applications to turn dramatically.

As the year wraps up, rates continue to dwell in enticing territory. The 30-year fixed rate averaged 3.32% last week, barely up from 3.31% the week prior, according to data released by mortgage giant Freddie Mac on Thursday. For perspective, it averaged 4% a year ago.

[Click here to see mortgage rates in your area]

As you might expect, many who were able to have already taken advantage. Changes in refinance applications have been positive year over year for the past 11 months, coinciding with the HARP 2.0 (Home Affordable Refinance Program) date and a 12-month period in which mortgage rates were averaging just under 4%, according to MBA. But MBA economists expect refinancing applications will peak in the final quarter of 2012, and will fall 76% from Q4 2012 to Q4 2013.

"Interest

It won't necessarily be a smooth or even recovery (if such thing exists) but industry watchers say the long-awaited housing recovery may finally be underway. Rick Sharga, executive vice president at Carrington Mortgage Holdings, tells The Daily Ticker that he believes the housing recovery is sustainable.

[Click here to see mortgage rates in your area]

The data Thursday showed improvement in the housing market. The National Association of Realtors' pending home sales index jumped 5.2% to 104.8 in October, a four year high. It's the 18th straight monthly increase for the forward-looking indicator.

The trends varied by region with the Northeast seeing some impact from Superstorm Sandy.

"Contract activity surged in the Midwest and is showing very healthy gains in the South, but was down slightly in both the Northeast and West," said NAR chief economist Lawrence Yun in a press release. Still, all regions were up from a year earlier. All regions posted double-digit returns except for the

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One of the issues most central to the downturn will continue to sit squarely on the Obama administration's plate for the next four years -- housing. While many have heralded the bottoming of the market and the start of a recovery with recent data, the pace and reach of the recovery remains largely in question.

Neither candidate really indulged us with in-depth details on how they plan to assure the budding housing recovery takes hold (and another crisis doesn't). But Trulia's Chief Economist Jed Kolko has some thoughts on what "four more years" means for housing.

Related: Housing On the Mend But "Stunning" Lack of Talk on the Campaign Trail: Zillow's Humphries

According to a recent post by Kolko, in President Obama's second term, we can expect to see the following:

• A continued push for refinancing availability
• A new set of mortgage standards by January 2013
• A possible cut to the mortgage interest tax deduction for (only) the wealthy

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More tempered pending home sales on Thursday dampened excitement generated by bullish data earlier in the week, while mortgage rates provided little new fodder for what have been increasingly optimistic takes on the housing industry.

[Click here for mortgage rates in your area]

Data earlier this week showed new home sales rose 5.7% in September to 389,000, and the FHFA home price index ticked up 0.7% -- better than expected on both counts. They followed even rosier data on housing starts and building permits -- up 15% and 12%, respectively, the week prior.

On Thursday the National Association of Realtors reported that pending home sales rose for the 17th straight month on a year over year basis -- with all regions but the West showing double-digit growth over the same time last year. But anemic growth of 0.3% month over month, in September from August, underwhelmed expectations. It followed an even more underwhelming decline of 2.6% in August over July.

"Pending" sales are a

JPMorgan economist Michael Feroli said Thursday he no longer believes that the U.S. payroll tax holiday will be extended -- a change he estimates will ultimately reduce GDP growth in 2013 by just more than half a percentage point, adding to the impact of fiscal-cliff related issues.

"... the change in our view wasn't because of something that happened, but rather what didn't happen: few in the political establishment came forward to push an extension of this tax break," according to a research note that dealt specifically with fiscal cliff related issues.

The expiration of the payroll tax cut would increase payroll taxes and reduce household disposable income by around $125 billion next year, according to Feroli. That could translate to a reduction in consumer spending of as much as $100 billion in 2013, according to his projections.

He mentions, however, there is debate about the exact effect of different sorts of tax breaks (and their removal) based on timing, economic conditions and

Mysteriously missing from the second presidential debate, housing is nonetheless among the issues most central to economy -- the downturn and the recovery. This week saw yet more more positive housing data, fresh off a report that foreclosures had hit a five-year low and positive remarks from the Federal Reserve's regional look at the economy last week. But our readers -- at least those who responded to our poll -- seem to be keeping their glee in check.

The Data

The reports continue to paint a rosier picture of housing. Housing starts jumped 15% and building permits increased by 12% in September, according to data from the Census Bureau released on Wednesday. And the National Association of Home Builders housing market index ticked one point higher to 41.

[Click here for mortgage rates in your area]

"We're seeing a more robust housing sector than many other parts of the economy," said NAHB Chief Economist David Crowe in a release. "One of the reasons is we have finally begun to see on

The housing data keep flowing and this week there are more signs yet that a recovery for housing is in play, but not all of the news is good for prospective home buyers.

After months of debate about the elusive housing bottom, here comes one promising piece of the housing puzzle -- foreclosures have fallen to a five-year low, according to data from RealtyTrac on Thursday. There were 531,576 foreclosure filings in the third quarter, down 5% from the second quarter and 13% year-over-year, the ninth-straight quarter with an annual decrease, according to the real estate information company.

[Click here for mortgage rates in your area]

That news followed the Federal Reserve's regional economic overview that found broad-based improvements in residential real estate. Most areas reported stronger housing markets helped boost economic growth.

Meanwhile, real estate marketplace Zillow.com reported Thursday that inventory rates have dropped by 19.4% nationally, with inventory declining the most