Blog Posts by Henry Blodget

  • China’s Credit Bubble About to Implode: Fitch Analyst

    One prediction made more than any other over the past couple of decades is that China's miraculous economy is headed for a fall.

    China bears have pointed to a long list of disasters-in-the-making: questionable economic statistics, skyrocketing real-estate prices, ghost cities, corruption, pollution, civil unrest and growing debt.

    Yet, despite all of these concerns, China's economic machine just keeps chugging along.

    But this time it's going to be different!, says an analyst from Fitch. This time, China really is screwed.

    According to Ambrose Evans-Pritchard of the Telegraph, Fitch analyst Charlene Chu has concluded that China's growth is fueled by a credit bubble that is unlike anything the modern world has ever seen. This debt bubble is leading to massive overbuilding, Chu says. And when it finally bursts, as debt bubbles always do, China will be looking at a Japan-style depression and deflation.

    Related: China Has Been and Will COntinue to Be a Bad Place to Invest: Jim Chanos

    Given

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  • Is NSA Leaker Edward Snowden a Hero or a Traitor?

    Early opinions vary on Edward Snowden, the former CIA employee who leaked confidential national security documents and has accused the U.S. of building an intelligence machine that records nearly all human communications.

    Some people think Snowden is a traitor.

    Some people think he's a hero.

    Some people, like me, are reserving judgment until they learn more.

    Related: U.S. Relies on Spies for Hire to Sift Deluge of Intelligence

    So what do you think?

    And what do you think about the law that gives the U.S. government almost unlimited spying rights on "foreigners," but seeks to reassure Americans that, as U.S. citizens, we don't have to worry about privacy violations?

    Sen. Rand Paul (R-Ky) has been quick to jump on the White House over this issue. In an op-ed in the Wall Street Journal he wrote: "If this is the new normal in America, then Big Brother certainly is watching and it's not hyperbolic or extreme to say so. Nor is it unreasonable to fear which parts of the Constitution this

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  • Americans Freak Out As They Realize How Much Data The Government Collects

    News stories published over the past couple of days have revealed just how much information the U.S. National Security Agency collects about the communications of hundreds of millions of people around the world.

    The Guardian, for example, reported that Verizon has been sending the U.S. government "metadata" about all of its telephone records so the government can analyze who is talking to who, when, and where.

    The Washington Post followed up with an even more shocking story, which said that the government "directly [taps] into the central servers" of Google (GOOG), Yahoo (YHOO), Microsoft (MSFT), Facebook (FB), and other leading tech companies and monitors communications in real time." One of the Post's sources on that story, described as a "career intelligence officer," was said to be so horrified by the power of this surveillance program that the officer voluntarily exposed it.

    Other news organizations have since confirmed the existence of this surveillance program, called PRISM,

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  • Tesla Is A Technology Company That Wraps Batteries In Cars

    Yahoo Autoblog editor Justin Hyde has an interesting take on Tesla (TSLA), the American electric car that just startled Wall Street by reporting an unexpected profit in the first quarter.

    Tesla's core competency, Hyde argues, is batteries. Tesla makes amazing battery and battery-charging technology, and then wraps the batteries in cars. Because Tesla is better at doing this than any other company, it has been successful in an arena in which everyone else has failed.

    Related: Tesla Pays Back Washington: Do You Know Anyone Who Drives One?

    Tesla also succeeded by targeting the perfect segment of the market in which to sell all-electric cars. The big weakness of electric cars, Hyde points out, is their limited range and the time required to charge time. Compared to gas-powered or hybrid engines, these limitations restrict the freedom of drivers. And they have prevented all-electric cars from going mainstream.

    But Tesla built its first cars for affluent buyers in areas in which

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  • 5 Reasons Not to “Like” Facebook

    When Facebook (FB) went public a year ago, it was billed as "the next Google."

    Excitement around the IPO was so intense that amateurs who knew little about the company and less about investing were elbowing each other out of the way to get stock.

    And then the company finally went public... and the stock flopped.

    A year later, Facebook's stock is down 40% from its IPO price, and few people seem excited about the company anymore.

    So, what gives?

    What happened?

    From a broad perspective, Facebook is going through the same maturation process that many rapidly growing tech companies have gone through. It is transitioning from hyper-growth to steadier growth, and the stock "multiple"--the price that investors are willing to pay for the shares relative to the company's earnings--is dropping accordingly.

    Importantly, this is nothing new: Google (GOOG) went through the same process from 2007 to 2012. Amazon (AMZN) went through the same process from 1999 to 2005 or so. As the growth of these

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  • Sorry, Americans — Chinese Tourists Are Now More Important Than You Are

    The French resort operator Club Med has received a buyout offer from, among others, the Chinese conglomerate Fosun International. Fosun wants to help expand Club Med to China, where the company already operates two resorts.

    This news highlights the growing importance of Chinese tourists in the global economy.

    Only a short while ago, American tourists were the world's most important tourists. They were also among the world's most reviled tourists, with the stereotype of the loud, obnoxious, ostentatious, and rude "ugly American" becoming known throughout the world.

    But now it's Chinese tourists who are spending big, appalling locals, and embarrassing their country.

    Last week, a 15-year old tourist from Nanjing scrawled his name on a 3,500 year-old carving in Egypt's Luxor Temple. Another Chinese tourist took a picture of the graffiti and posted it to a Chinese social media site, triggering a massive backlash and parental apology.

    This was not the only Chinese tourism incident that has

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  • Top CEOs Ranked By Their (Lousy) Stock Performance

    Corporate America is in the midst of an obsession with "shareholder value."

    This narrow measure of company performance holds that what's good for a company's stock price is also what's good for the company and its customers and employees. So, for better and worse, many of today's CEOs are judged primarily by their stock prices.

    Capitalizing on this theme, Bloomberg has put together a list of CEO "underachievers"--big company CEOs whose stocks have done the worst relative to the broader market since the beginning of each CEO's tenure.

    Meg Whitman of Hewlett-Packard (HPQ) sits atop the list, with HP's stock having underperformed by a startling 30 percentage points since she took the job.

    James Gorman of Morgan Stanley (MS) and Brian Moynihan of Bank of America (BAC) hold the 5th and 6th slots, with both banks having struggled in the past couple of years.

    And, not surprisingly, the staggeringly well-compensated CEO of Occidental Petroleum (OXY), Stephen Chazen, owns a place in the top

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  • Apple (AAPL) CEO Tim Cook is going to get raked over the coals by Congress for the company's spectacular tax-dodging techniques.

    No one is suggesting that any of these techniques are illegal.

    No one is suggesting that Apple is doing anything that any number of other massive multi-national companies aren't doing.

    And no one is suggesting that companies should voluntarily pay more taxes than they absolutely have to pay. According to tax expert David Cay Johnston, the Supreme Court "says a company or an individual has an absolute right to pay the minimum in tax the law requires." (But just because you can doesn't mean that it's proper, he adds).

    But boy are Apple's tax-dodging techniques effective.

    And, boy, do they make clear that the United States (and, ideally, other world governments) have to get together to simplify corporate tax policies. Or else this highly sophisticated tax-dodging will continue to become a bigger and bigger source of corporate profitability.

    In preparation for

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  • Yahoo CEO Marissa Mayer Buys Tumblr–Her Boldest Move Yet

    Yahoo! (YHOO) announced this morning that it is buying social blogging company Tumblr for $1.1 billion in cash.

    Tumblr is a six-year old company based in New York. It is run by a charismatic 26 year-old entrepreneur named David Karp, who will pocket hundreds of millions of dollars on the deal and has therefore become an object of fascination for the New York tabloids.

    Related: High School Dropout to Tech Titan

    Tumblr allows users to create simple blogs and share words, pictures, and video. It is one of a handful of massive social publishing platforms created in the past decade, a group that also includes companies like Facebook (FB), Twitter, Instagram, and Pinterest.

    Tumblr's audience is massive. The company's blogs receive 300 million unique visitors per month, and a staggering 120,000 new blogs are created every day (not blog posts--blogs). This mind-blowing traffic has made Tumblr one of the largest digital media companies in the world.

    The Tumblr deal will vastly increase

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  • Scandals Have Derailed Obama’s Second Term–But Are They Really Scandals?

    President Obama's second term has suddenly become embroiled in three scandals that have put the Administration on the defensive:

    • Questions about the White House's role in communications about the Benghazi embassy attack,
    • The IRS's unfair targeting of conservative groups for tax harassment, and
    • The Justice Department's decision to sub-poena phone records from AP reporters in an investigation of a national security leak.

    These scandals have eclipsed whatever policy agenda the Administration might otherwise have been pursuing. And they have prompted some to suggest that the Republicans will clean up in the midterm elections and that President Obama's second term is already effectively over.

    The Administration's political opponents are obviously doing everything they can to make the scandals sound positively outrageous and to hold the White House directly responsible for them.

    And each of these events certainly deserves to be investigated.

    As yet, however, despite the decibel level of the

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Pagination

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