Blog Posts by Henry Blodget

  • Bracing for Disaster: How Bad Will Apple’s Earnings Be?

    Over the past six months, Wall Street has gone from thinking that Apple can do no wrong to thinking that there's no way Apple will ever again do anything right.  And, that said, Tim Cook's role as CEO has been brought into question.

    As a result, the stock has collapsed from a high of $702 to a recent low of $390 last week.

    And Wall Street is now bracing for what most people expect will be a terrible quarterly earnings report and outlook on Tuesday.

    Apple's results in the December quarter disappointed many analysts, and the company's outlook for the first quarter was also meh. But now, after a steady flow of news reports suggesting that first-quarter sales have not gone well, as well as Apple's failure to release any new products so far this year, many on Wall Street think that Apple will miss even its low guidance for the quarter. Worse, many expect that Apple will provide an outlook for the June quarter that is far below what Wall Street is currently expecting.

    In other words,

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  • Americans Grow More Pessimistic on Economy

    The U.S. economy may be hitting another "spring swoon," the same way it has for the past several years.

    A slowdown from the economy's already slow rate of growth would not be surprising given the impact of the "sequester" and tax increases that went into effect earlier this year. These moves trimmed government spending across the board and increased taxes on most Americans

    Not surprisingly, the sluggish economy has led to increased pessimism among American consumers. According to a new Associated Press-GfK poll, only one in four Americans expects their financial situation to improve over the next year. And only 46% of Americans now approve of President Barack Obama's handling of the economy.

    The government certainly bears some responsibility for the state of the economy. The sequester, especially, was widely viewed as bad policy, and many economists thought it was not only unnecessary but would hurt the economy.

    But much of the blame for our weak economy also lies with the private

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  • As Gold Prices Collapse, Investors Seek Answers

    It's the oldest market pattern in the book.

    A long-ignored asset finally gets hot, and its price rises for a while. The rising price of the asset attracts new investors, which drives prices even higher. And as the price rises, investors develop compelling explanations for why that's happening, only some of which may have a solid basis in fact.

    The price continues to rise, more investors arrive, and their buying drives prices even higher. Soon, the stories that explained the early price increases get repeated so often that they start to be regarded as fact. The price rises even further. More investors hear the stories and believe them, and hurry to get in on the action. And so on.

    At some point, however, for any of a number of reasons the spell breaks. The "story" hasn't changed, but demand for the asset no longer outstrips supply, and the price drops.

    At first, investors brush off the price drop as a temporary fluctuation--a "buying opportunity." Then, when the price drops even

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  • A DISH/Sprint Partnership Could Change the Telecom Industry Forever

    In a surprise move, satellite-TV operator DISH Network (DISH) has made a $25.5 billion bid for Sprint, the U.S.'s third-largest wireless operator.

    Sprint (S) is already in the approval process to be sell a majority stake to Japanese telecommunications firm Softbank.

    DISH's bid is higher than Softbank's and may therefore trigger a bidding war between the two suitors.

    DISH has offered about $7 a share for Sprint, with a mix of cash ($4.74 per share) and $2.26-worth of DISH stock. DISH's stock fell about 5% on the news, and the total value of the offer will continue to fluctuate based on DISH's stock price. DISH estimated that the initial offer was worth about 13% more than Softbank's offer.

    The ultimate fate of Sprint, and the price of the winning deal, won't likely be known for months.

    But DISH's bid represents the next big move in a tectonic shift that is revolutionizing the media and communications business.

    Right now, the communications and media industries are dominated by 6 big

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  • President Obama published his proposed budget this week.

    The budget uses a combination of increased taxes and spending reductions to trim the deficit by about $1.8 trillion over the next 10 years.

    The budget was greeted by howls of outrage from both sides of the aisle because it contained some provisions that mortified extreme conservatives and infuriated extreme liberals.

    Related: Obama’s Budget Is a Ridiculous Charade: Doug Casey

    Liberals, for example, were outraged by Obama's proposal to tie Social Security benefit increases to the so-called "chained CPI." This inflation measure will produce lower annual benefit increases in benefits than the measure that is currently used. So liberals are howling.

    Conservatives, meanwhile, are annoyed about the budget's proposed tax increases--especially the tax increases that fall primarily on richer Americans.

    Related: Obama Finally Unites Washington…In Opposition to His Budget: Yahoo's Knox

    The most notable of these proposed tax increases is

    Read More »from Obama Budget Targets Fat Cats But ‘Buffett Rule’ More Symbolism vs. Substance, Zandi Says
  • Jack Lew, the new U.S. Treasury Secretary, is in Europe this week.

    He's lecturing European leaders about the lousy job they're doing fixing the overall European economy, which remains in a recession.

    Specifically, Lew is saying that Europe should ease the "austerity" policies that have helped destroy the economies of Greece, Portugal, the U.K., and many other European countries. These government spending cuts, which were designed to reduce budget deficits, are instead just hammering some of Europe's economies. Because economic contraction leads to less tax revenue, the policies are also failing to do what they were supposed to do -- cut budget deficits. The U.K.'s deficit, for example, is almost as big as it was during the worst of the financial crisis.

    So, yes, Europe should reduce or eliminate its misguided "austerity" push and pursue "pro-growth policies," as Lew is suggesting.

    Related: Cyprus Debacle Shows Not All Euros Are Equal

    But it's still odd that Lew is taking this message

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  • Here’s Why Stock Market Investors Should Be Nervous

    Now that the stock market is hitting new highs, everyone's suddenly excited about buying stocks again.

    Meanwhile, four years ago, when stocks were at a decade low, no one wanted to have anything to do with them.

    Warren Buffett is fond of observing that, when any other item in the economy goes on sale, folks get stoked about buying it. ("It's cheap! I'm getting a deal!") When stocks go on sale, meanwhile, folks are appalled by the idea of buying them. Instead, everyone wants to wait until stocks have gone up steadily for many years and, therefore, seem "safe."

    Related: 4 Reasons People Don’t Care About the Record Dow

    The good news about this bizarre and return-destroying attitude is that it creates an opportunity for investors who can manage their own emotions and buy when others are fearful, as they were four years ago, and sell (or at least get cautious) when others are greedy.

    And right now, after four years of amazing gains in stocks, investors are getting greedy.

    Does this mean

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  • Apple Gearing Up To Launch New iPhone (Yawn)

    Apple (AAPL) is going to start producing the next iPhone this quarter, The Wall Street Journal reports, with the goal of releasing it during the summer. And rumors are circulating around Facebook (FB) that it will unveil its version of an Android operating system later this week.

    The iPhone refresh is expected to be a boring internal upgrade.

    No big screen.

    No massive price chop.

    No amazing new features that will make people hyperventilate and then faint dead away.

    The new phone is expected to just be the same old iPhone 5 with a slightly speedier processor and maybe a new software widget or two.

    That's the pattern Apple established with its interim "S" upgrades a few years back.

    That's the pattern Apple is expected to follow this time around.

    Analysts also expect Apple to introduce a new cheaper iPhone later this year. The latter phone will be increasingly important to Apple's ability to compete with Samsung and other handset manufacturers in the fastest-growing segments of the

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  • Bitcoin Prices Blast Through $100, Driving Speculators Wild

    If you're like most people, you've probably been hearing a bit about "Bitcoin" recently.

    And, if you're like most people, you'll probably not know what it is or what to think about it--or what the fuss is all about.

    Here's a snapshot.

    Bitcoin is an electronic currency--a new form of money.

    Bitcoins take the form of strings of numbers that can be electronically owned by and transferred among individuals and organizations. For now, the currency is primarily used for payments by fringe retailers or illegal transactions, but it is being accepted at more and more places. And organizations that exchange Bitcoins for standard currency are now being approved to operate as banks.

    The premise and promise of Bitcoin--the part that appeals to folks who don't happen to be gold bugs or cryptography geeks--is that the current plan is for only a finite number of Bitcoins to be created. This is in direct contrast to standard government-issued currencies, which governments can always print more of. If

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  • Banks In Europe May Now Seize Deposits To Cover Their Gambling Losses

    Cyprus and the EU reached a new late-night bailout deal last night that will reduce the chance that Cyprus's financial system and economy will completely implode.

    The 10 billion euro deal requires Cyprus to drastically shrink its banking sector, which has grown to 8Xs the size of the country's economy, by unwinding Cyprus' second largest bank, Laiki. In doing so, bondholders and depositors with more than 100,000 euros will take a hair cut.

    The new deal is better than the last deal in one key respect -- deposits under 100,000 euros will be protected.

    That's very important. Those deposits were ostensibly "insured." To seize them, the way the last bailout deal would have, would have been grossly unfair and would have set a truly alarming precedent.

    Now, small depositors in European banks can breathe more easily. At least in this case of gross malpractice on the part of reckless bank managers, their life savings have been preserved by the EU.

    "Not hitting the insured deposits is a good

    Read More »from Banks In Europe May Now Seize Deposits To Cover Their Gambling Losses

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