Posts by Jeff Macke

  • S&P 500 tests 2000 again, don't let emotions trade for you

    Jeff Macke at Yahoo Finance 2 hrs ago

    Futures are lower on news we will have completely forgotten by 10am. It's lousy early follow-through after a pretty constructive day yesterday. You can see in this 5-day chart that the S&P 500 (^GSPC) probed the same old boring support just under 2000. As usual, just when all seemed lost buyers came charging in and pushed stocks up by almost 1%.

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    Here is a 6 month chart of the S&P 500. I've drawn the trading range that has become the new "V Bottom" in terms of predictable patterns. 1. 2. 3. 4. 5 different times this month the market has reversed course within that space. If three makes a trend 5 makes a Trading Commandment.

    Everyone has their own special trading sauce when it comes to charts but when it comes to this channel, or really any pattern, I need to make sure we're clear on one thing: never anticipate a breakout or collapse. Trade the market you have, make plans for the one you think is coming.

  • Hershey's meaty deal, Coach could have been worse & Kate Spade closing stores

    Jeff Macke at Yahoo Finance 22 hrs ago

    Coach (COH) shares are climbing more than 5% on a case of it could have been worse. While profits of $0.66 per share and revenue of $1.2 billion were basically in-line with estimates, comp-store sales are still in free fall. In North America, sales fell 22% and Japan was down 18%. China managed to buck the downtrend with a 12% rise. Coach's CEO says the brand's improvement is ongoing and is counting on newly acquired shoe designer Stuart Weitzman to help salvage the rest of the year. On a technical basis there's a nice long support base there but greater minds than mine have been destroyed calling bottoms on fashion companies. There will be plenty of time to buy Coach shares if becoming a shoe store works for them.

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  • 3 ways McDonald's new CEO can turn things around

    Jeff Macke at Yahoo Finance 1 day ago

    White smoke is billowing from the grills at McDonald's (MCD) HQ in Oak Brook, Illinois. That can only mean one thing: a new Burger Pope has been elected by McDonald's. The new head of the world's largest fast food chain is 48-year-old Brit Steve Easterbrook. Easterbrook replaces Don Thompson who announced his *ahem* retirement after three semi-disastrous years at the helm.

    There's going to be a lot of talk today about whether or not McDonald's can be saved. That's just silly. This company isn't dying. If he keeps it simple Steve Easterbrook can have this company cranking again in 18 months and get paid tens of millions for doing very little. He's the luckiest Brit since Prince Harry went through puberty.

    You're done. That's it. Just three items. Know why the list is so short? Because the best menus always are, Steve Easterbrook. Somehow McDonald's forgot that basic fact. Now you get to remind them. Congrats, Lad. Go have a ball.

  • Boeing takes off, EA scores with profits and WWE smackdown

    Jeff Macke at Yahoo Finance 1 day ago

    Boeing (BA) is keeping te Dow Jones Industrial (^DJI) aloft and refreshingly smoke free. The maker of the formerly troubled Dreamliner reported a 23% increase in core fourth quarter profits. The big driver was defense where profit margins widened, presumably on secret drone stuff. The kicker was cashflow which Boeing said could reach $6.2 billion. That implies two things: 1) confidence in Dreamliner margins and 2) Buybacks and/or dividend hikes.

    Electronic Arts (EA) is scoring with its upcoming profit report share price which is rallying 10% today.  The game maker said titles like Madden NFL  and FIFA, soccer to Americans, helped propel record breaking preliminary quarterly results. EA earned $1.4 billion in revenue and profits of $1.22 a share. Both coming in above expectations. With Super Bowl XLIX on Sunday timing could not be better for EA.

  • Super Bowl, Valentine's Day spending point to a booming consumer

    Jeff Macke at Yahoo Finance 2 days ago

    U.S. stocks are flat in the early going after a pretty good smacking yesterday. The S&P 500 (^GSPC) fell 1.3% and the Dow Jones Industrials  (^DJI) did even worse after weak earnings from Caterpillar (CAT) and Microsoft (MSFT). So far corporate earnings have been a bit of a disaster with the exception of Apple (AAPL) which reported the single greatest quarter in the history of business last night.

    Alas, Apple is an outlier in every way. For companies that don't have $178 billion on the balance sheet the picture is much gloomier. Durable good orders missed estimates badly yesterday. More than 1/5th of the S&P 500 has reported and sales growth is all but non-existent for last quarter. CEOs are cutting cap-ex and talking layoffs.

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  • CAT, Microsoft decimate the Dow, Corning bucks downtrend

    Jeff Macke at Yahoo Finance 2 days ago

    Caterpillar (CAT) is today's Dog of the Dow (^DJI) dropping more than 7%. The company not only came up short on estimates but also warned that slowing global growth would lead to a weaker than hoped 2015. CAT’s a cyclical company and always has been. Nothing odd about fluctuations in demand. What is strange is management highlighted $4.2B in stock repurchases as a good thing for shareholders. Not only did earnings per share decline anyway but the average price of CAT shares over the last year was about $100. Today you can buy all the Caterpillar stock you want for less than $80. Repurchased shares are retired but if the company was a fund they would be down about $850 million on those repurchases. Might be best to stick to earth moving equipment, gang. It's a tough enough job already.

     

  • The blizzard trade: Making money in bad weather

    Jeff Macke at Yahoo Finance 3 days ago

    In case you missed it winter storm Juno has shutdown most of the Northeast this week. I'm kidding. Of course you've heard about it already. This is the media capital of the world and apparently the natives don't know how to shovel. When it snows schools, public services and just about everything else comes to a screeching halt. The only things that stay open are the retailers and media outlets reporting on the weather.

    Things may be sunny and cozy where you are right now but at some point you'll be hit by some sort of extreme climate hiccup that closes down your town. While most folks will take that as an excuse to slack off, I've got three tips for profiting from weather extremes:

    3. Go out and play. If you're stuck at home because your school district cancelled or your bus is in a ditch it's a hassle, but also an opportunity to get your mind right. Take a little vacation. Go sledding. Build a snowman. The world will still be here when the storm ends. As usual, the better rested you are the better able you'll be able to handle any real emergencies that might come your way.

  • Snow stocks rally, CEO Barbie booted and Avon's renewed takeover chatter

    Jeff Macke at Yahoo Finance 3 days ago

    Mattel (MAT) is down by 5% after the man behind CEO Barbie, Bryan Stockton resigned as Chairman and CEO today. Shares are tumbling less out of sadness than because the toy maker also told investors preliminary fourth quarter and full-year sales will likely drop by as much as 7%. Part of the problem is Barbie has not been pulling her weight, sales of the iconic doll have been in decline for a few years. Plus Disney's (DIS) Elsa is eating Barbie's lunch these days. The company's interim CEO Christopher Sinclair starts today.

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  • The Super Bowl ad line-up deflates bullish investor expectations

    Jeff Macke at Yahoo Finance 4 days ago

    Stocks are down slightly as U.S. traders try to get their minds around the implications of extreme leftists taking power in Greece. We've got a busy week so I'm going to go ahead and spoil the suspense: it doesn't matter what Greece does. Greece was scary in 2011 and 2012. Today problems at the Greek system at UVA matters more to your long-term investing health.

    To get the market's field position out of the way, the S&P 500 (^GSPC) dropped about half a percent Friday in relatively subdued trading. We're still in a trading range. That's not so bad considering almost 20% of the 500 biggest stocks in our world have now reported and the results have been fairly terrible.

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    That may not be an investment thesis but it is yet another reason to root against the Pats and consider hedging your portfolio by taking the Seahawks and the 2 points.

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  • Box IPO soars, Starbucks shares hit record while DreamWorks dwindles

    Jeff Macke at Yahoo Finance 6 days ago

    Box (BOX) is soaring to the clouds on its first day of trading. The cloud-based storage company’s initial public offering priced at $14 a share last night, above the $11 to $13 expected range, valuing the company just under $2 billion. That struck some investors as quite a bargain since it was 30% lower than where Box was valued in its latest round of private financing. Some investors seem to agree as the stock opened over $20 a share and hasn't looked back since. Does that make shares a buy now? I'm not claiming to be an expert on the company but I will say I don't know anyone who has gotten rich buying IPOs on the first day of trading.

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