Blog Posts by Jennifer Carinci

Gold is cooling off after a 5-week central bank-driven rally sending prices up over 10% in the short term. Dollar strength is pressuring commodities across the board today, with gold down nearly 1% in early trading.

Last Thursday the precious metal's move formed the Golden Cross — widely regarded as a bullish technical indicator formed when an asset priceline's 50-day moving average breaks above its 200-day moving average. The last significant golden cross on the gold chart was February 6, 2009; from which gold prices rallied 11% in the following eleven trading sessions.

"The golden cross is a technical term a lot of people use and I think it's very much overcompensated with enthusiasm," says Don Hays, founder of Hays Advisory, in the attached video. "The golden cross works sometimes and it doesn't work other times."

He questions the indicator's reliability because it's so heavily watched by traders that dump out the moment it shows signs of breaking down. Instead, Hays views gold as a "fear index" and attributes its 11-year bull run to the attacks on 9/11.

It's been a September to remember for Facebook (FB), with shares up 25% so far this month. The social media kingpin is hoping the worst is behind them after going down as the worst U.S. IPO in history. Keep in mind that despite the September bounce, shares are down 40% from the May 18 IPO where they debuted at $38 apiece.

"I think we're heading into a period where these guys are going to pump this thing up ahead of the lockup expirations in October and November," says Eric Jackson, founder of Ironfire Capital. "There's a big flood of stock coming on the market."

Think "tsunami." That's how many FB shares will hit the market by year-end.

The first lockup period, open to some insiders, expired on August 16, bringing 271 million shares to market. Nearly two billion more shares could hit the market in a series of lockups expiring over the next eight months, with none more significant than the two this Fall. Here's a schedule recently published by TheStreet:

October 29 — 243 million shares; employees

November 14 — 1.3 billion shares; ventures capitalists, insiders including Zuckerberg

December 14 —149 million shares; VCs

May 18, 2013 (final lockup expiration) — 47 million shares

Ahead of the expiration dates, Jackson says to expect a string of positive news generated about the company. He says little details about user experience and effective ads could "leak" out, and large shareholders and managers could become a little more visible. "I think they got some religion," he says. "When you get your stock chainsawed in half, it starts to shake the chairs up there."

Trulia Inc. (TRLA), the first initial public offering in over a month, is making quite a debut after opening higher by 30% on the New York Stock Exchange this morning. Shares of the online real estate listing company opened at $22.10 after pricing at $17 a piece last night; above the targeted range of $14 - $16. In IPO filings the company reported a loss of $7.6 million on revenue of $29 million in the first half of the year.

Though they're not turning a profit yet, user growth and the number of visitors and subscribers remain promising and today's over 40% rise underscores that sentiment. Not only is this an upbeat sign for the IPO market, it could mark improved confidence in the real estate market.

"I think a lot of it is Bernanke pushing out rates all the way to 2015," says Jon Najarian, co-founder of TradeMonster.com, in the attached video. But, he adds, there is real demand for housing for those who can secure mortgages.

That demand has been showing up in the Homebuilders ETF (XHB), which is up 50% this year, and 79% from one year ago. And Trulia's main competitor, Zillow (Z), carried out a successful IPO in July 2011 and has seen shares more than double this year alone, currently up 104%.

The Federal gas tax is currently $0.18 per gallon and has been since 1993. Factoring in varying state government taxes, the national average for gas taxes and fees is $0.49 a gallon, making the U.S. the lowest gas taxpaying industrial nation.

With soaring debt, rising government spending and the Fiscal Cliff looming at the end of this year, there's growing speculation that State governments could target the gas pumps to gain some revenue to go towards infrastructure funding. It's a battle that no politician wants to take on directly because even the smallest increase tends to ignite the driving public.

"We're not paying a little extra, we're paying a lot extra," says Patrick DeHaan, sr. petroleum analyst at Gasbuddy.com about the current gasoline tax levels. "As CAFE standards are increasing fuel efficiency, we're having to find tax revenue from additional sources. Raising the gas tax may be something the politicians look at doing here."

The more Americans opt for fuel-efficient cars like the Toyota (TM) Prius, Nissan (NSANY) Leaf, Chevy Volt, and new Ford (F) Fusion, the less they're spending on gasoline. Consequently the revenue hit the government is taking is two-fold. Not only are the taxes generating less revenue, the production of fuel-efficient cars is subsidized and incentivized by the government.

"Not only are governments hurting for revenue, but they may be divvying up the portion that is for roads and putting it in a general fund," he explains. "We've seen [State] governments now interested in looking at different avenues for gas tax."

The market just can't shrug off another dose of negative news from shipping giant FedEx (FDX), trading down over 2% after reporting fiscal first-quarter results this morning. EPS and revenues beat estimates, but the company slashed its 2013 full-year outlook to $6.20 - $6.60 from $6.90 - $7.40. FedEx, widely viewed as an economic bellwether, is expecting a global manufacturing slowdown deep enough to drag on the economy and its earnings over the next year. This is the company's second warning citing the economy this month.

"I think FedEx is really a reflection more of the summer soft patch and the fact that Europe is in a recession, but I think it's still risk-on because forward-looking you have QE-forever, you have the ECB moving from rhetoric to action with a bond-buying program, and you have China stepping in with some infrastructure stimulus spending," says Hank Smith, chief investment officer at Haverford Investments. "I don't see this one report turning the risk-on trade off."

Smith is sticking with his bullish thesis, despite the other half of it hinging on political resolution in Washington to lift the economy. While it sounds unrealistic to rely on D.C. these days, he reminds of us of what Bob Woodward covered in his new book --that House Speaker John Boehner and President Obama were closer than you think to striking an impactful debt deal last year.

If the fiscal cliff is averted and a new Congress --working with either President Obama or Republican nominee Mitt Romney-- can implement pro-growth tax reform, Smith says GDP and earnings estimates will be revised dramatically higher and take the stock market along for the ride.

Shares of Apple (AAPL) hit another all-time high of $699.54 earlier and are closely flirting with the $700 price level on word from the company that iPhone 5 pre-orders topped two million units in just the first 24-hours.

"It's not too late to buy Apple," says Brian Sozzi, chief equities analyst at NBG Productions. "It creates euphoria, and I'm looking at 2013 for massive dividend increases."

In a bid to return some of its cash to shareholders, earlier this year new CEO Tim Cook announced Apple's first dividend in 17 years. The dividend was initiated at $2.65 a share, currently yielding 1.52%.

"I think it's going to be a one-two punch here. You're going to have a higher stock price, because next year you're going to have rumors about the Apple set top box, [and] iPad mini looks realistic to me. Dividend increase, share price up, win!" says Sozzi.

Along with the iPhone 5 came news that Apple is updating its 30-pin connector used for all iPhones, iPads and iPods since 2003. The new smartphone will connect through a digital eight-prong "Lightening" connector. The move has created uproar among consumers who will now have to buy an extra adapter priced at $29 or $39 to connect to old docks on chargers, alarm clocks and speaker systems.

For Sozzi, this opens up a whole new batch of derivative plays on Apple.

Shares of Apple (AAPL) hit a record intraday high of $683.29 on Monday morning, before bouncing off that peak to trade in the high $660s leading up to today's highly anticipated event in San Francisco.

Technical analyst Tom Kee of Stock Traders Daily puts fundamentals like product launches aside, and follows what the charts show him. Earlier this year he had a bold short position in Apple; making the short call at $611 in late April before shares dipped to $523. Unfortunately he didn't cover his bid and two months later Apple recovered and set a new year-to-date high of $644 in mid-August.

"That short is now off the table and the chart pattern is telling me that we might see $775 out of Apple," says Kee. "Unless it breaks down below what is now a converted support level, we're looking at higher levels."

Kee's converted support level is in the $640s. This was the original stop on his short position, and is now a targeted entry point. He explains the up channel and how he's connecting the dots of the chart below in the attached video.

Leading online photo company Shutterfly (SFLY) had a strong bounce on Thursday rising 8% to $30.98 a share after Barclays Capital reiterated its "overweight" rating on the stock. This after Jefferies Group downgraded SFLY to "hold" and cut its price target to $29.00 a share at the start of the week. So why the disparity, and does Shutterfly deserve another look as a long-term investment?

"We do all of it," the company's CEO Jeff Housenbold tells Breakout. "We're the only site that offers free, unlimited, non-compressed, non-down sampled storage, 100% satisfaction and happiness guarantee, we allow you to edit your pictures, create share sites, but we also allow you to create products from that. And we make all of our revenue today from selling products, approaching $600 million [this year]."

Housenbold says versatility, vertical integration and acquisitions, has enabled the company to grow to 50% market share since its inception in 1999. In addition to direct competitors like Hewlett-Packard's (HPQ) Snapfish, Shutterfly also goes up against the photo divisions within Wal-Mart (WMT) and Walgreen (WAG), and even views Apple (AAPL) as a competitor. He explains they're competing with these giants from a design forward and quality standpoint.

Perhaps the largest splash in the company's 13-year existence came earlier this year when they emerged as the sole bidder for Eastman Kodak's online component, Kodak Gallery. Kodak, which filed for bankruptcy in January, sold the unit for $23.8 million.