Posts by Lawrence Lewitinn

  • 3 charts that show why stocks, oil, & emerging markets could rally by year-end

    Lawrence Lewitinn at Yahoo Finance 1 day ago

    Stocks and crude oil are gearing up for a rally by the end of the year, according to one leading technical analyst.

    The S&P 500 (^GSPC) fell 7% in the third quarter of 2015, its worst quarter in four years. But Katie Stockton, chief technical strategist at BTIG, sees positive signs in the index’s charts.

    One reason Stockton is optimistic on the S&P 500 is that September’s dip to a low of 1,879 failed to break below August’s plunge to 1,876. She expects the index will ultimately form a bullish double-bottom pattern.

    “The swift nature of that correction that we saw in August is more characteristic of a bull market correction as opposed to the beginning of a bearish reversal,” said Stockton, who is also vice president of the Market Technicians Association.

    Other indices also showed a double bottom, she added. “That’s what we call a shakeout of the weak holders of the market.”

    A break above the 2,000 level – under 5 points from Wednesday’s close – would confirm that the S&P 500 the worst is behind it, Stockton predicts.

  • Paying CEOs fat bonuses for stock performance doesn't work — Cornell study

    Lawrence Lewitinn at Yahoo Finance 7 days ago

    It turns out offering CEOs huge bonuses to boost shareholder returns doesn’t actually work, according to a new study from Cornell University.

    The analysis, done in conjunction with consultants Pearl Meyer & Partners, examined a decade’s worth of data from every company in the S&P 500 (^GSPC). It compared companies that offer their top brass a total shareholder return (TSR) plan to those that don’t and found the increasingly popular pay plans haven't significantly boosted any of a number of key metrics. 

    Total shareholder return is how well an investment in a company has done over a given period. It's a combination of the stock's price change and dividends paid. With TSR plans, managers are rewarded with shares, options, or even cash to give them a stake in how well the stock does.

    For a growing number of corporate heads, big bonuses based on stock performance is a large part of their pay.

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  • Why the housing market could soon get positive news

    Lawrence Lewitinn at Yahoo Finance 9 days ago

    The housing market may be experiencing a slight bounce, according to data compiled by online real estate marketplace

    The website expects an uptick in September existing-home sales reported by the National Association of Realtors (NAR). After three straight months of gains, the NAR’s numbers on existing-home sales stumbled in August.

    “What we are seeing is a recovery in September from a really dismal August – but not a huge recovery,” said’s executive vice president Rick Sharga.

    If Sharga is correct, the NAR will show September existing-home sales somewhere in a range between 5.23 million and 5.57 million, with a midpoint at 5.4 million, on a seasonally adjusted annual basis.

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    Existing-home sales are still well below the September 2005 peak of 7.26 million seasonally-adjusted annual sales though leaps and bounds above the July 2010 lows of 3.45 million.


  • Why Jim Rogers isn't ready to give up on China, commodities or the U.S. dollar

    Lawrence Lewitinn at Yahoo Finance 22 days ago

    Concerns about China have shaken global markets and oil has been suffering, but one legendary investor is still bullish on both China and commodities.

    The Shanghai Composite index (000001.SS) is off by more than one-third over the past three months. Other markets also have slipped, with U.S. stocks dipping into correction territory and equities from Japan to Europe also stumbling.

    Despite the declines, Jim Rogers, founder of Rogers Holdings, remains optimistic. “The Chinese stock market has been the strongest stock market in the world in the last 12 months – much, much, much stronger than the U.S. stock market,” he said. “Yes, there are going to be problems in China and yes, we should all be worried. But there are going to be problems in a lot of places."

    Rogers, who cofounded the Quantum Group of Funds with George Soros in the 1970s, even sees a few bright spots in China’s economy. “If you’re in pollution cleanup, oh my gosh, you’re making so much money you can’t count it because there are a lot of problems that need to be fixed in China,” he said.

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  • Americans losing confidence in the economy: Fannie Mae

    Lawrence Lewitinn at Yahoo Finance 29 days ago

    A new index by one of the most influential institutions in the housing market suggests people are increasingly worried about the economy.

    The Fannie Mae (FNMA) Home Purchase Sentiment Index (HPSI) was formally launched earlier this week as an predictive indicator of the housing market’s next move. In the last couple of months, the index dropped to 80.8 from its record high of 84.7 set back in June. However, it remains higher than it was a year ago and has stayed within a five-point range since September 2014.

    The agency attributes the drop to concerns over the economy. “The folks thinking it’s on the wrong track have increased significantly,” said Fannie Mae chief economist Doug Duncan. “There’s something going on at the household level that’s reducing their confidence.”

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    Only 32% of those surveyed in August said the economy is headed on the right track, while 58% said it was going the wrong way. In June, those numbers were 39% and 51%, respectively.

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  • BlackBerry's Good buy, Ambarella and Joy Global bounce back

    Lawrence Lewitinn at Yahoo Finance 1 mth ago

    Your daily dose of trending tickers, the stocks we're following based on your Yahoo Finance ticker searches. 

    Joy Global (JOY) Joy Global rebounding from Thursday's sadness for its investors though shares of the mining equipment-maker initially suffered Friday morning. Jefferies cut its price target on Joy Global from $34 to $20. Yesterday, they company said it saw a 37% decline in profits for its most-recent quarter and it cut year-end forecasts. A big worry is the economic slowdown in China, which could reduce demand for raw materials such as copper. Coal mining in the U.S. is also down. In response, Joy Global is looking to cut $60 million in expenses this year.

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    Why back-to-school is different this year

    Analyst trolls Chanos, says he's lying about Elon Musk's SolarCity


  • More downside ahead for oil will make oil stocks a buy: Analyst

    Lawrence Lewitinn at Yahoo Finance 1 mth ago

    It's been a wild few days for crude but one energy analyst sees one of the biggest buying opportunities for oil and oil-related companies.

    After rallying some 25 percent from the middle of last week through Monday, the price of a barrel of oil (CLV15.NYM) dropped 8% on Tuesday. Manufacturing data from China added to worries about the country’s economic growth and demand for energy.

    The supply side also shows the potential for lower crude pries in the near term, according to Ted Izatt, chief strategy officer at SDKA International. He sees expected additional oil from Iran, Iraq, and not much decline from American producers are harkening back to another time in crude’s history – 1998, when barrels traded below $11.

    “I’m not saying they will go down that far,” Izatt said. “I’m just pointing out that the situation is such that they could go down. I think that when you get down to the low $40s, $30s, that’s a much more reasonable situation.”

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    Lower prices will have a stimulus effect on global growth, Izatt predicted.

  • Why back-to-school is different this year

    Lawrence Lewitinn at Yahoo Finance 1 mth ago

    The kids may dread it but for retailers, particularly teen apparel chains, back-to-school is one of the most important times of the year.

    For the three giants of teen retail Abercrombie & Fitch (ANF), American Eagle Outfitters (AEO), and Aeropostale (ARO) – and their investors – this season could be crucial. While American Eagle Outfitters is up 22% year-to-date, Abercrombie & Fitch and Aeropostale have suffered, dropping 30% and 54%, respectively.

    However, this year will be a little different. Not only is the 2015 school year starting later than usual but technology has also transformed the traditional back-to-school season, notes Stephens retail analyst Rick Patel.

    “What’s changed is that technology has really come to the forefront when it comes to the shopping experience,” he said. “We’ve seen the word ‘ominchannel’ being thrown around a lot by these retailers. What it basically means is that the teen is increasingly relying on shopping online for their back-to-school needs.”

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  • China's investors find safe haven in American real estate

    Lawrence Lewitinn at Yahoo Finance 1 mth ago

    The sudden collapse in the Shanghai Composite (000001.SS) and the devaluation of the yuan in the past month have led some to worry that it could cause trouble for the U.S. real estate. But those who follow the market closely see potential capital flows from the turmoil in China to the relative safety of American property.

    “There’s a fear that Chinese buyers, who have been such a market-maker in parts of the United States, may pull back,” said economist Jim Costello of Real Capital Analytics. “Those fears are a little unfounded.”

    Worldwide in the last 12 months, Chinese investors bought $21.1 billion in commercial real estate – income-producing properties priced above $2.5 million – according to data compiled by Real Capital Analytics. Nearly $5.9 billion was invested in the United States, with the lion’s share – $4.5 billion – going to Manhattan.

    High profile acquisitions by Chinese buyers of Manhattan landmark properties have been likened to that of another Asian powerhouse – Japan in the late 1980s.

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