The flow of market forecasting is at its peak as we close out 2011 and look at the year ahead. Generally speaking, most outlooks fall safely within the bounds of existing consensus or conventional wisdom.
Reuters recently reported 2012 expectations showed an average anticipated return for the S&P 500 next year as a gain of about 7.5%, right smack in the middle of what you might call the cautiously optimistic camp.
It's rare to come across professionals who are willing to risk their reputation and make bold forecasts in public, which is why Todd Schoenberger of LandColt Trading caught our attention.
"We're predicting the S&P 500 will be down 20% by mid-year, and by the end of the year, we'll be down 35%," Schoenberger says in the attached video. "Buyer beware."
While many point to the upcoming election year and the typical bounce that comes with it, Schoenberger reminds us of 2008 and the 37% decline on the Dow Jones Industrial Average. So just as investors are beginning to see what might be light at the end of the tunnel, and consumer confidence has rebounded to a 6 month high, Schoenberger's bearishness seems out of sync.Read More »from Crappy New Year! Stocks Will Fall 35% in 2012 Says Schoenberger