Blog Posts by Matt Nesto

Well, that was fun. I'm talking about the 63 minute pre-market rally in stocks today that followed a solid jobs report that boasted a 7.7% unemployment rate, the lowest in four years. By the time the market got around to opening at 9:30, an hour after the report was released, the bounce was all but dead. Except for a brief courtesy pop, jittery investors were already over it.

"Hedge your risk now," is how Bill Baruch, market strategist at iiTrader reacted to the early movement. "You've gotta prepare for the worst and hope for the best," he says in the attached video, urging investors to protect themselves and their year-to-date gains by using futures or ETFs so they can "look for the downside potential while still enjoying the upside."

Like many of us, Baruch feels a sell-off is overdue but he also thinks there's a good chance that stocks continue to go higher, partly because he says investors have been wanting to get off the sidelines all year.

"I think the reality is people are afraid of missing the bus right now," yet at the same time, he concedes that he has all his clients "on their toes" just in case his fears come true.

"Economic data has just killed it so far" this year he surmises, "but if we start missing data, and the debt ceiling starts overhanging as well, you're going to start seeing pressure on this market and there's going to be people, very quickly, wanting the sidelines."

The all-important February jobs report is due out this Friday morning and my favorite - and most bullish - prognosticator is expecting big things.

Officially, consensus is for 165,000 new jobs being added for February, but Andrew Wilkinson, chief economic strategist at Miller, Tabak & Co. thinks it will be much higher, and that an uptrend that began late last fall looks set to continue.

"The [ADP] revision to 215,000 (for January) means the government data stands a good chance of upward revision too," he says in the attached video. That said, he's keeping his guard up as worries about the weather, the impacts of higher payroll taxes and the uncertainty in Washington all should be factored in when assessing the number that will be released Friday by the Labor Department at 8:30a Washington time.

Another reason for Wilkinson's relative bullishness versus that of his peers, is the modest but steady decrease in the weekly initial claims data. "It is key when initial claims fall below 350,000. That's when job creation really begins," Wilkinson says, noting that the number has steadily fallen over the past few months and is now at 355,000, with continuing claims at levels not seen in five years.

His broader belief is that this will be a year of improving jobs data that tops overly pessimistic estimates. While that predicted string of positive surprises is fueling the stock markets already, there is some risk if expectations were to suddenly firm up.

Even if you had an extra $1500 laying around to burn on a cool new gadget, you still probably couldn't get your hands on Google Glass. The soon-to-be test marketed eye-wear has already taken on legend-like status due to this amazing pre-launch promotional video and the almost instantaneous closing of the company's "Glass Explorer" offer to test drive them. While the high tech world's most innovative new product may not be atop everyone's must-have list, high tech analyst Walter Piecyk of BTIG Research admits he threw his name in the hat.

"It could be a very interesting product," Piecyk says in the attached video, acknowledging that the initial $1500 price-point is not exactly the sweet-spot for "a broad based product." However, he says, "as it drops in price, being able to use and access Google's (GOOG) information services by just wearing glasses would be phenomenal."

Of course, all of this Glass hype comes exactly as Google's cross county rival Apple (AAPL) is reported to be close to bringing its own offering to the soon to be over-crowded wearable tech segment. Multiple reports have suggested that the "iWatch" could be on shelves - and wrists - in the next few months at a fraction of the cost of the Glass.

"A $150 or $200 watch is probably not enough to generate earnings growth," Piecyk says of the iWatch. "The mobile phone business has always been the biggest consumer electronic opportunity," he adds, implying that that is where the humbled heads in Cupertino ought to be applying their energy. "Apple needs to focus on how to get involved in the pre-paid business," he says, and begin to tap into the market for people who can't afford a six or seven hundred dollar phone.

Four years and 7,800 points ago, the Dow Jones Industrials were on the run and looking for cover. An 18-month pummeling had just cut the index in half, returning prices to where they were in 1997 — a 12-year low. Fast forward to the present, and we are wiping the champagne from our eyes and toasting an all-time high for the very same index.

It would be understandable to look at the quadrennial doubling that has just occurred for this 30-stock benchmark and express a little concern. After all, according the Stock Traders Almanac, this bull market is already twice as long (1,457 days old vs. 755) as the average bull market of the past century and has delivered about 50% more upside punch (+120% vs. +86% avg.) than usual.

What troubles me, however, is the more recent history and the fact that the Dow has popped 15% since mid-November at a time of slumping profits, lackluster growth, global strife and political ineptitude.

As my co-host Jeff Macke and colleague Mike Santoli discuss in the attached video, calls for a pullback and an actual pullback are distinctly different things.

In the face of great skepticism and a laundry list of reasons why it shouldn't be happening, the Dow Jones Industrial Average (^DJI) burst higher in early trading today, eclipsing the previous closing high of 14,164 set on October 9, 2007. As it stands, the DJIA is also trading above the record intraday high of 14,198.

While the Dow's move into all-time high territory was not entirely unexpected, it is nonetheless a momentous achievement. Of particular note is the fact that today's record comes just four days shy of what will be the index's 4th anniversary of its low, which was set almost 4,000 points ago on March 9, 2009.

As my co-host Jeff Macke and I discuss, the final leg of the blue chip benchmark's journey was a drive of almost unstoppable determination, that was able to overcome obstacle after obstacle that many feared would see it stumble before reaching the goal.

The unparalleled surge in the Industrials not only follows a similar high attained by the Dow Transports (^DJT), but confirms the "Dow Theory" -a widely followed bullish indicator dependent on both indexes setting new highs together.

What's worse than suddenly realizing that your favorite old jacket or well-worn pair of pants has simply fallen out of style? Even though your treasured garments may still be perfectly functional and comfortable, and the stench of moth balls does fade over time, it's a feeling that forces you to essentially part ways with an old friend.

It's also a feeling that investors, such as Kim Forrest, senior analyst at Fort Pitt Capital Group, want to avoid and is part of the reason why she recommends owning the uber fashionable industrial sector.

"They [industrials] are cyclical, and I think investors have to be extremely wary of that," Forrest says in the attached video. "But in the long term, industrials... especially companies that make very large machines that make people and industries very productive, that's the key."

More specifically, Forrest says what "really makes me want to own them in my portfolios" is the newfound productivity that these companies inject into an otherwise cold economy.

Pretty much everyone who even remotely follows the markets seems to have seen ''the list" or is at least aware of its contents. I'm talking about the inventory of items that investors routinely cite as reasons why the market may finally acquiesce in the face of widespread disbelief and skepticism.

After circumventing the sequester and easing around Italy and European uncertainty, today's timidity is being fueled by worries out of China. This as the Chinese government has moved to cool down the property market, the economic data du jour was weak, and 60 Minutes took America on a tour of a real Chinese ghost town that showed "miles and miles and miles AND MILES of empty apartments," as host Leslie Stahl told it.

"Anything could happen, but at this moment it looks like China is to blame for today's market," says Kim Forrest, senior analyst with Fort Pitt Capital Group, in the attached video. As she sees it, the Chinese economy has gotten so large over recent years that efforts to "step

The on again, off again saga that is the Keystone pipeline expansion plan has turned the logical into the divisive, and also made the project a lightening rod for critics and supporters alike. While the tide appears to be turning in favor of building it, with the President, the state of Nebraska and business leaders all easing their opposition, the long-fought deal might finally get done. Even the U.S. State Department has gotten in on the $7 billion project, by issuing a revised environmental impact statement that could provide cover should the White House choose to okay the plan later this year.

But even if it does get built and Canada's oil sands gain renewed access to the U.S., Patrick DeHaan, senior petroleum analyst at GasBuddy.com says there's no guarantee that it will ease recent pricing pressure.

"A lot of Americans, perhaps wrongly, believe that the addition of the (Keystone) pipeline will bring down gas prices," DeHaan says in the attached video. "The truth may run counter to that."

DeHaan explains that because of their ''land-locked" status, Canadian oil prices are not only lower than pretty much everywhere else, that supply is destined to end up in U.S. refineries "the moment it is pumped."

Clearly, Canada would like to see that price go up and will sell its oil to whomever offers the best price. The catch with Keystone, DeHaan says, is one of proximity. "The biggest concern being if the Keystone is approved, it could bring that Canadian oil closer to a port that could export it, thus driving up the price."