Blog Posts by Peter Gorenstein

The Great Recession is officially over, but the good old days of conspicuous consumption -- maxing out credit cards and buying homes with no money down or proof of income -- are long gone. In fact, it seems that if there's any good to come of all the pain and suffering over these last few years, it is that Americans are now actually learning to live within their means.

The Daily Ticker's Aaron Task and Henry Blodget discuss in the accompanying clip, with unemployment above 9% and the economy in stall speed, consumers have learned their lesson. Frugality appears to be a lasting trend.

As highlighted in the Wall Street Journal, more consumers are buying generic brands and making their purchases at big box stores.

Here are more facts on these consumer trends based on two recent surveys:

• 75% of consumers shop with lists, compared with 45% in 2008.
• 20% of grocery sales are private brands, up 15% prior to the recession
• 44% of Americans are shopping more at bulk stores
• 72% of consumers say

Eastman Kodak says it has no intention of filing for bankruptcy. Shares of the money losing company are recovering Monday after plummeting 54% on Friday on news that it hired law firm Jones Day - known as bankruptcy and restructuring experts.

Whether or not they go under, Kodak is a long suffering American icon. The company has not made a profit since 2007 and revenues has dwindled for the last decade. In 2004, the company was removed from the Dow Jones Industrial Average after 74 years on the blue chip index. In 2010, it was removed from the S&P 500.

Kodak, the maker of photography film for well over a century, once enjoyed 80% market share for film. The firm first started its decline in the 1980's when Japanese competitors like Fuji film took business with lower prices. In fact, as Peter Cohan writes in a recent Forbes column, stiff competition caused Kodak to lay off 19,900 workers in 1999. Another, 4,500 workers were let go in January 2009.

More than cheap film, the emergence of

Since 2008, when the bottom fell out of the housing and stock market, pundits, analysts and economists have been calling for a major crash in the commercial real estate market. It's yet to happen. True, Blackstone's 2007 purchase of the Sam Zell's Equity Office Properties for $39 billion proved to be the market top, but the commercial real estate disaster that accompanied the recession of the early 90's has yet to be realized.

Today's guest on the Daily Ticker, Mort Zuckerman chairman of Boston Properties, one of the largest REITs in the country, doesn't think the other shoe is going to fall. That's not to say business is booming. As is always true in real estate, it's about three things: location, location, location.

Suburbs vs. Cities

Smaller town shopping centers are struggling. "They don't have the big tenants with the strong credits that can, in a sense, pay the rent through the difficult times," says Zuckerman. Meanwhile, "in the major cities, in particular it's been much less

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With his approval ratings slump in the polls, his lock on the base slipping and his economic policies having little effect, President Obama appears to be trying a new strategy on the campaign trail.

Since unveiling his jobs plan in front of Congress earlier this month and in barnstorming stops and fundraisers over the last few weeks, the President is showing a feistier side in an effort to turn the tide. Instead of shying away from claims his policies are fueling the fire of class warfare, the President has been embracing his position, referring to himself as a "warrior" at last week's stop in Cincinnati:

"The Republicans, when I talked about this earlier in the week, they said, well, this is class warfare. You know what, if asking a billionaire to pay their fair share of taxes, to pay the same tax rate as a plumber or a teacher is class warfare, then you know what, I'm a warrior for the middle class."

"He tried consolation, he tried 'the

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It's pretty obvious times are tough for America's working class. The combination of a prolonged period of stagnant wages, high unemployment and shaky economy - including a decade of little or no returns (if you're lucky) on assets like stocks and real estate - make it harder to pay the bills. (See: As America's Middle Class Shrinks, P&G Adopts "Hourglass" Strategy)

Meanwhile, New York Times columnist and economist Paul Krugman, noted in a piece last week titled "The Social Contract," that while the middle gets squeezed, the rich keep getting richer in both real and relative terms.

"...the Congressional Budget Office — which only go up to 2005, but the basic picture surely hasn't changed —show that between 1979 and 2005 the inflation-adjusted income of families in the middle of the income distribution rose 21 percent. That's growth, but it's slow, especially compared with the 100 percent rise in median income over a generation after World War

The economic data in the U.S. and abroad this week has not been encouraging, leading to serious concerns over another recession.

Here's some highlights:

• The International Monetary Fund lowered its forecast for U.S. growth this year and in 2012, to 1.5% down from 2.5%.
• September Manufacturing PMI (purchasing managers index) out of the Eurozone and China were lower than expected and indicating contraction in the respective areas.
• U.S. housing starts fell 5%
• The WTO cut 2011 world trade growth forecast to 5.8% from 6.5%

All the negative news is taking down stocks, adding another layer of negativity to the mix. Add it all together and NYU Professor Nouriel Roubini, a.k.a. Dr. Doom, says "we are entering a recession." The only question is: How deep?

In the accompanying clip the Daily Ticker's Aaron Task discusses the outlook for the economy with Michael Spence a Nobel Laureate and professor at the NYU Stern School of Business.

"You can easily make an argument that the short run and

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The dysfunction in Congress continues. Democrats and Republicans are embroiled in another budget face-off that may result in the first federal government shutdown since 1996. The latest potential crisis was triggered Wednesday after the House of Representatives voted down a temporary measure to fund the government into the next fiscal year.

Late this morning Speaker of the House John Boehner tried to quash the notion of another budget impasse. "There's no threat of a government shutdown," he said.

At the heart of the issue is funding for disaster relief. Democrats are calling for $6.9 billion for FEMA's relief fund, but the GOP is only willing to pay $3.65 billion and want the rest of the funding to be offset by spending cuts in other programs. Without more funding FEMA will run out of money as early as Monday.

As Aaron and Henry discuss in the accompanying clip, we're all for smarter spending in the halls of Congress, but shutting down the

Texas Governor Rick Perry is the front runner for the GOP presidential nomination, according to the latest USA Today/Gallup poll. Perry leads Mitt Romney 31% to 24%. But Perry trails President Obama head-to-head 50% to 45%.

The Daily Ticker's Aaron Task and Henry Blodget sat down with Steve Forbes, the one time presidential candidate and editor-in-chief of Forbes Media, to handicap the race. Though he has yet to officially endorse him, Forbes is betting on Perry.

"I think at the end of the day Perry will win the nomination, and I think he'll win the election."

Forbes thinks Perry has the right message on the economy that resonates with the electorate. "The criticism of the Federal Reserve is right on, he's for tax simplification, certainly no blow-out in spending," he says. "So in terms of issues that matter most to the people I think he's going to be a winner."

Perry has pledged to create jobs and get the country's fiscal house in order without raising taxes. Just how can he do that?