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Falling gas prices this Fall

Big Data Download

Tensions from the Mideast continue to weigh on Wall Street and oil prices, but not enough to cause oil price shocks in the country, according to Tom Kloza, chief oil analyst at GasBuddy.

Kloza said U.S. dependency on Middle East oil is not very large. According to Kloza, Syria has only been producing about 50,000 barrels per day recently, and even before the chaos, four-fifths of its oil was exported to Europe, not the U.S. The U.S. imports about 1.1 million barrels per day of Saudi crude, and about 750,000 from Iraq and Kuwait, he said.

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Kloza told Big Data Download, “If one looks at U.S. and Canadian production, we can get 10 million barrels per day of oil from those two sources. Throw in Mexico and other ‘friendlies’ and we are nowhere near as vulnerable as we were in 2003 or 1990.”

As for gasoline, Kloza said demand will fall and supplies will increase after Labor Day.

Kloza said gas demand will slide about 300 to 400 barrels per day after the holiday. Also, he said, gas production can rise since refiners can “bake” cheaper hydrocarbons into the fuel because you don’t have to worry about ozone standards as much after the summer season.

In California, fuel may be 75 cents to $1 cheaper than last autumn, when prices soared to $5 per gallon in some counties, according to GasBuddy. And GasBuddy predicts the rest of the country might see $3.25 to $3.75 per gallon.

“The outlook for gasoline still suggests temperate prices through the end of the year, despite the very high crude numbers,” Kloza said.

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