Marc Faber, managing director of Marc Faber Limited and the author of the widely read monthly investment newsletter “Gloom, Boom & Doom” report, said weakness in China’s economy could spell big trouble global markets.
Faber said that if the Chinese economy grows at 3 or 4 percent—or even not at all, which he sees as a possibility—it will have a huge, negative affect on industrial commodities and the incomes of countries that produce them. In turn, he said, if countries such as Russia, Brazil or nations in Africa, Central Asia or the Middle East have less income, they’ll buy less from China, Western Europe and America, leading to very little earnings growth or an earnings contraction for those more prosperous economies.
China preferably would show trend line growth of 10 percent, as it has done for the past 20 years, Faber said.
Faber said it’s a good idea to take money out of the stock market.
“I don’t think there is a lot of upside potential, but I think there is considerable downside,” he said.
However, he said that markets are now seeing emerging markets and their currencies go lower, and “It could be that all the money in the world flows in to U.S. stocks and avoids emerging markets.”
Gold can eventually be a source of profit, according to Faber. He said it’s possible the price of gold can go somewhat lower, even though he thinks it’s now at a reasonable level. “I keep on buying gold and I have faith that gold prices will eventually be higher,” Faber said.
Faber said that, in general, corporate earnings will disappoint.
“They may not collapse, but I don’t think they will be as a good as expected,” Faber said. He said cyclical stocks, such as semiconductors and materials companies, will have tough time matching earnings expectations.
U.S. aluminum giant Alcoa kicks off the unofficial start to quarterly earnings season after the closing bell on Monday.
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