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    • As is the case with grief, there are five stages of bull markets.

      Stage one is residual fear of the prior bear market.

      Stage two is denial that a bull market exists at all.

      Stage three is anger at having missed out on enormous profits. This has been the most hated rally in market history since at least October of 2009. That qualifies as anger.

      Stage 4 is when strangers ask me if it's too late to buy Tesla (TSLA). Last weekend the bull market entered Stage 4.

      If you're still deciding whether or not to buy stocks it's safe to say you missed the bottom. What matters is where we go from here and how investors can dip a toe into stocks without feeling like the unwitting sucker at a high-stakes poker game.

      In the attached video, Greg Troccoli, co-founder of ChartLabPro.com, suggests giving the market room to run but not without a backstop. Troccoli, who suggested stocks could be poised to rally when he joined Breakout in March, says the 1,700s aren't outside the realm of possibility now that resistance has been broken.

      Related: The Last Resistance Level Before a Major S&P 500 Breakout

      Troccoli is a technician; he takes the stages of bull markets and all other emotion out of the equation and lets the charts guide him. Right now he's dispassionately rolling up his stops to avoid giving back his gains. At the moment Troccoli's sell signal is a close below support on the S&P 500.

      Read More »from Take Profits on an S&P 500 Close Below 1,643: Troccoli
    • $615 million doesn't go as far as it used to. That is how much SAC Capital Advisors paid to settle a civil case with the SEC in March. As part of the settlement, SAC neither admitted nor denied wrongdoing. Apparently that wasn't good enough. Over the weekend SAC founder and billionaire Steven A. Cohen received a subpoena to testify before a grand jury as part of a different investigation into insider trading.

      The fact that the government has been trying to build a case against Cohen is hardly news. Cohen has been playing Moby Dick to a series of would-be Ahabs in the government. The chase has been well documented, most recently in an exhaustive Vanity Fair piece, which cast U.S. Attorney Preet Bharara as the current harpoon thrower.

      If Cohen is charged and convicted it would be the most significant blow against the Wall Street Insider Club since the 80s, when Rudy Giuliani took down Michael Milken. There have been high-profile cases since, but none of the targets were as central to the day-to-day business of trading as in the case against Cohen. Bernie Madoff was a one-off Ponzi scheme, massive in scale but relatively obscure. After Madoff's fraud was exposed, the collapse was swift and conviction was a foregone conclusion.

      SAC is different because it is of the Wall Street system. The firm reportedly pays more total brokerage commissions every year than any other group on earth. Cohen isn't just a Moby Dick to ambitious politicians like Bharara; he's also a whale to every firm on Wall Street. Instead of spears, brokerages and analysts bombard SAC with ideas, edges, speedy fills and every other micro-advantage that comes with being a target customer.

      "His advantage over those many years has been some kind of trading savvy but also just minute advantages of information," says Yahoo! senior columnist Michael Santoli. "It seems as if that's been exactly the ethos of the firm, to stretch for the last piece of information."

      Read More »from Should SAC Capital’s Steve Cohen Face Criminal Charges?
    • Gold and silver prices are down big, hitting new multi-year lows to start off the week. Retail investors still clinging to the idea that the decline in precious metals was transitory have been getting battered in 2013 with the SPDR Gold Trust (GLD) and iShares Silver Trust (SLV) ETFs falling 19% and 27% respectively.

      Louise Yamada, head of LY Technical Research Advisors, says the glitter twins of trading need to rebuild from the ground up, a process that will take years. "It's like a steel ball wrecking crane coming through your house; it's going to take time for the mason, the carpenter and electrician to put it all back together."

      Yamada gently suggests it might be time to consider the possibility that the enormous bull run might not be resting. It could be dead. "The chart is still broken," Yamada insists. Whether you're a chartist or think of technical analysis to be voodoo, breakdowns are easy to understand in human terms. As an asset recovers disappointed buyers come in and sell every move higher, thankful just to get out alive.

      The best case scenario for gold bulls is that the recent lows hold, allowing some sort of consolidation in the charts. $1,539 is where gold broke down and $1,321 is the trading low made in April. The latter mark is under fire today. Should gold close under that support expect another round of panic selling.

      Read More »from Time for Gold Bulls to Abandon Hope: Yamada
    • There's a flippant retort used in investment circles in which mistaken fund managers proclaim: "I wasn't wrong, I was just early." It's used to vindicate a miscalculation as being the result of bad timing rather than bad judgment. Despite its rather corny and cliched premise, it is used more often than you would think.

      In fact, Don Hays, the founder of Hays Advisory Group, points out that the excuse is being widely used right now by red-faced investors who are reacting too early to fears about the Federal Reserve tapering its bond buying program.

      "After being in this business 42 years, how many times have I heard that?" Hays asks in the attached video of current concerns about teh Fed unwinding its $85 billion monthly quantitative easing program. "We have a long way to go before you have to worry about that."

      In a recent not to client, Hays argues it will take years for the current monetary policy environment to deteriorate from near perfect conditions today to a point where it could threaten the bull market. And even when the Fed inevitably does begin to taper, Hays says it won't be as if the accommodative spigot just gets turned off completely.

      Read More »from Fear of Fed Tapering is Overblown, Years Too Early: Hays

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