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    • Target (TGT) shares are getting smacked in early trading after reporting first-quarter earnings results that missed expectations and reduced guidance for the full year. America's second largest discount merchant reported earnings of 82-cents on revenues of $16.7 billion. Wall Street was looking for earnings of 85-cents on revenues $16.82 billion. For the full year Target also said it expects to report $4.70 - $4.90 a share compared to prior guidance of $4.85 to $5.05.

      Shares of Target were at all-time highs heading into the morning and are still up more than 15% for the year, even as estimates have come down. Wall Street seems willing to look past light numbers in the medium term and will apparently forgive fleeting hiccups on EPS. What hasn't been discussed much is growing evidence that it's not just Amazon (AMZN) eating into Target's market share.

      Related: Look Out Wal-Mart! Here Comes Amazon

      "In 2012 and 2011 the three major dollar stores out there actually increased their square footage by 5% whereas Target and Walmart (WMT) remained flat," claims Todd Schoenberger, managing partner at LandColt Capital. "The only hope for Target is that the economy is improving because that's going to give people a little bit of 'oomph' to go out and spend some of that discretionary income."

      Target was once impervious to share threats from the Dollar General's (DG) of the world. Dollar stores were rundown flea markets located largely in areas too small to support big box stores. Over the last few years the line between which socio-economic group shops at a particular retailer have been blurred. Walmarts and Targets can now be found right down the street from one another, usually with a small footprint discount store stuffed in between.

      Read More »from Move Over Target! Dollar Stores Are Taking Share: Schoenberger
    • It's the hottest stock that almost nobody loves. Hewlett-Packard's (HPQ) nearly 50% gain so far this year has left it in a league of its own atop the 30 companies that make up the Dow Jones Industrial Average (^DJI), and yet, its support on Wall Street is razor thin.

      Despite this stock's rebound, its forward PE ratio of 6, the fact that 25% of its market value is from cash, and it easily covers a 2.5% dividend yield, the pride of Palo Alto is still in need of some love.

      As my co-host Jeff Macke and I discuss in the attached video, with the stock surging and expectations weak, the company's 2nd quarter earnings results due out after the close of trading today, are taking on special interest.

      Analysts are expecting earnings per share to tumble to $0.81 from $0.98 a year ago. While the costs involved in restructuring a business with 335,000 employees are immense, interested investors would be wise to know that FactSet data shows H-P has not missed its bottom line consensus estimate in three years.

      Unfortunately, the same cannot be said about its shrinking sales results, which have left Wall Street wanting more in 3 of the past 5 quarters. This quarter, analysts have revenues pegged to slump about 9% to $28.0 billion, but don't hold your breath.

      While some would take weak results earlier this month from rival computer-maker Dell (DELL) as a warning, it's not necessarily clear that the Texas-based takeover target didn't poison its results in order to improve the odds that its founder will be able to take the company private.

      Read More »from Will Earnings Tonight Confirm H-P Is a Turnaround Story Worth Buying?
    • Marc Chandler, head of global currency strategy at Brown Brothers Harriman, has both good news and bad news for the legions of Ben Bernanke haters. The good news is that Chandler expects Bernanke to obey the "informal rule" of two term limits for FOMC chairman. The bad news, for the haters of current policy, is that nothing is going to change if and when Bernanke leaves at the end of his term next January.

      Conventional wisdom is that vice chair of the Board of Governors, Janet Yellen, will take the helm next, but that's of little consequence. What matters is policy and, more specifically, when the FOMC starts weaning the markets off years of Quantitative Easing (QE).

      With economic data coming in slightly better than expected and junk debt yields dropping below a somewhat preposterous 5%, the market is starting to toy with the notion that QE may be coming to a halt sooner than expected. Chandler says the Fed is going to see more than just another "phase" of stronger data before calling a halt to the most controversial economic stimulus program since FDR was in office.

      Related: Bernanke Must Come Clean on 'the Big Lie' Says Whalen

      No one uses the term anymore, but Chandler describes the Fed as being in a box. They want to stimulate to assist job creation but can't do so at the expense of savers or those currently being baited into high-risk investments by the Fed's perversely low interest rates. Pushing investors out on the risk curve and then burning the bridge behind them is bad form and bad policy. The Fed only has "blunt tools" with which to work, Chandler maintains. It doesn't matter whether QE ends abruptly or with tapering, it's going to hurt when it happens.

      Read More »from QE Tapering Won’t Start Until Q4: Chandler
    • Expectations are for courteous questions and familiar answers when Federal Reserve chairman Ben Bernanke sits before the Joint Economic Committee in Congress today. After all, it's not as if the two-term Fed chief doesn't have his story down by now. What that means is that he should be able to reiterate his outlook of cautious confidence and reassure the world that things are improving and that the Fed will be able to extract itself from its easy money stance when the time is right to do so.

      Related: QE Tapering Won't Start Until Q4 Says Chandler

      But for Fed watcher Chris Whalen, a managing director at Carrington Investment Services, the world would be well served if Bernanke came clean on the short-comings of his global inflation strategy.

      "The big lie among all the central bankers is that they can do something to help grow jobs and get the economy back to where it was," Whalen says in the attached video. "Despite everything they've done for the past five years, the pool of credit is shrinking," he says, and in many markets, is actually deflating.

      To be fair, Whalen says it's not just Bernanke who is blowing new asset bubbles, he thinks it's a global condition. And nowhere is it more conspicuous than in Japan where he likens the country's new inflation-creation policy by way of a weaker Yen to a ''deliberate act of economic war."

      Read More »from Bernanke Must Come Clean on ‘the Big Lie’ Says Whalen

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