Wed, May 23, 2012, 12:38 AM EDT - U.S. Markets open in 8 hrs 52 mins

Apple Has 6 to 12 Months Before Investor Sentiment Sours Says Analyst

Apple (AAPL) events hold a special place in the hearts' of both investors and consumers. The simple fact that outsiders care about such events tells you just how unique Apple is. Unique, and very large, as the company briefly crossed a $400 billion market valuation.

With the specter of Steve Jobs still looming over the company, they held a special event today in the New York City's Guggenheim Museum and announced… wait for it...

A deal to sell textbooks.

There was no sizzle, no surprise, no revelations of the next super-product; just a simple, relatively prosaic agreement to help sell more iPads and iPad-specific textbooks to schools.

Apple has dominated the educational system for literally decades. It's one of their core strategies and always has been. The question isn't whether or not today's announcement is a lucrative extension of an existing strategy. It is. Much more important is if this is the best Apple has got, and if so, what it means to an investor-base accustomed to "sizzle."

According to David Garrity, tech analyst at GVA Research, the move keeps Amazon (AMZN) from striking a similar deal for its Kindle. Textbooks were "the final vestige of the analog world to fall pretty to digital transformation," says Garrity.

The issue still comes down to vision, or perhaps lack thereof, coming out of Cupertino. "Clearly we do have a vacuum, from a marketing standpoint," says Garrity. "From a presentation standpoint and, perhaps over time, we'll have a deficit from a vision standpoint."

In the absence of Steve Jobs' vision and showmanship, Apple risks becoming, gasp, just another company. Garrity says the biggest immediate threat is still coming from Amazon's Kindle.

"The competitive distance is closing," he says. "From that standpoint Apple has maybe 6 to 12 months before investor perception on the margin turns against it."

Company devotees may not like hearing it, and those who have bet against the company and the stock continue to get vaporized, but Apple needs to start dazzling the Street once more if they want to remain the unquestioned king of the technology world.

Garrity gives them until the beginning of 2013. Are Apple's days numbered? Let us know what you think in the comment space below.

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  • GV  •  Santa Clara, California  •  4 months ago
    This bald guys is an idiot!
    • Mark S 4 months ago
      This bald guys an idiot!
    • Patrick 4 months ago
      He may or may not be an idiot, but he's certainly obnoxious and arrogant. His snide, irritating delivery makes him sound like Veruca Salt.
    • harvey 4 months ago
      the next step for this guy to estimate the total sales for Kodak
  • Swerpo  •  4 months ago
    That's your take?

    "The question isn't whether or not today's announcement is a lucrative extension of an existing strategy. It is"

    I stopped reading after your last quote.... Sorry it didn't "sizzle" enough...

    Dreadful article.
  • Spankme  •  Santa Clara, California  •  4 months ago
    Are you kidding me right now? This guy should have his ability to publish future articles denied. Sounds like another article with little to no data to back up the theory. This is all speculation. Apple will dazzle, just wait and see
  • Mimi  •  San Antonio, Texas  •  4 months ago
    What a fool this "analyst" is. Apple has more money and intelligence in their corporation than 10 other major companies combined. Must be writing one of those headlines that manipulate the stupid investors. Anyone with a kid is tired of paying for new textbooks every year from overseas publishers. Anyone who remembers their history, remembers that Apple gave school kidskids computers 30 years ago. This guy owns Amazon stock.
  • Paul  •  New York, New York  •  4 months ago
    another pithy load of #$%$ from another dimwitted analyst who is trying to either make a dent in the universe or manipulate Apple's stock. so tired of these fools.
  • Peanut Gallery  •  Indianapolis, Indiana  •  4 months ago
    APPL to $1000. My bald guy call. I am long and in big. Up, up and up over the last few years. Cannot complain one iota.
    • Psychedelico 4 months ago
      If you were in big the last few years and up up up, wouldn't you have at least known the ticker symbol?
    • Wolfgangjr 4 months ago
      speed error!
    • A Yahoo! User 4 months ago
      That's such an easy typo to make! I know it's AAPL, but I type in APPL all the time when trying to get a quote.
  • Cornell  •  New York, New York  •  4 months ago
    Next time please,could you find another clown to express his ignorance ?
  • Markus Stefan  •  Zurich, Switzerland  •  4 months ago
    Unquestioned king of the technology world, at a forward P/E (cash deducted) of under 10? Is that how Wall Street values its heroes? AAPL is cheap even if it stops growing tonight. But two of its key markets, tablets and smart phones, are still at the beginning of a global growth cycle. Relax and invest in AAPL. There is no need for Apple to dazzle the Street. There is no need for Apple to invent any further. All they have to do is ride out the huge wave they sit on. And don't forget: Apple will soon start to pay a dividend.
  • john w  •  New York, New York  •  4 months ago
    I've been on a mac since 1999 and got my first iPhone in 2007 when it first came out.
    Every time I had to use my wife's or daughter's PC or Blackberry I'm amazed that anyone would use these products. They have all switched to mac now and will never go back.
    I have owned Apple stock since 1999 and have made about 1000 times my original investment. They will own the educational publishing field like they own the digital music field and will soon own the TV field. So if Apple's days are numbered, I think the numbers look pretty good.
  • Swerpo  •  4 months ago
    Apple's days are numbered? No! They own like 8-12% of the PC market and the only ones gaining marketshare quarter to quarter.
    • D. 4 months ago
      As long as their PCs are 2-3x the cost of a regular PC, they wont budge that market share. Besides, PC's are dying.
    • John 4 months ago
      Apple is done. They are just going to recycle Steve Job's ideas until people move on to something else.
  • Leowavekid  •  Ventura, California  •  4 months ago
    Idiots.. Confirmed!!!
  • Tim  •  Oakland, New Jersey  •  4 months ago
    This is called speculation, not valuation. Don't confuse the two.
  • rubic  •  Walnut Creek, California  •  4 months ago
    Fact is guys that apple lost the educational market sometime back and is actually winning it back - as us usual you guys .....speaking of vacuum
  • Snooooooof  •  Santa Barbara, California  •  4 months ago
    I think the lack of vision is with the author. Open your eyes, apple is a serial disruptor. Boom they just ensured dominance in another 8 billion a year business. Textbooks is just the tip of the iceberg. They just redefined PUBLISHING. All publishing. They released the free software to make publishing easy for anyone. Then you can sell on the Apple book store. No need for a publisher. Get iT?? Oh right you lack vision. Television will be next. Salacious articles might get a read but you will also get labeled a fool by those who can see.
  • Troy  •  Augusta, Georgia  •  4 months ago
    With the coming year of form factor changes and new speeds and devices and who knows what new technologies they will reveal sell your shares at your own considerable risk. long AAPL since 1998 at $26.38. Still holding. Also holding postion bought at $172.00.
    • Adele 4 months ago
      Buy more. Next stop - $550.00 :)
    • Tom 4 months ago
      Nice. I remember talking to a friend in 1997 about buying Apple stock, really wish I did. Glad to hear you held on, it's not stopping anytime soon.
  • Jeepdrivr  •  4 months ago
    Worst. Article. Ever.
  • israel  •  Los Angeles, California  •  4 months ago
    Without Jobs AAPL is just another company. They will start have politics and decisions by committees. So within 2 years stock will drop to $200-30. Look what happened to the stocks of INTC, MSFT, CSCO AMAT...they are all less than 25% from their highs.
  • beenthere  •  4 months ago
    Idiots....what else can you say about these two guys....
  • sharon  •  Daytona Beach, Florida  •  4 months ago
    No facts, just conversation. Poor job.
  • MATTHEW  •  Toledo, Ohio  •  4 months ago
    There is a definite group out there that wants to see apple fail. The media is running with this story and the so called "headphone deaths" a few days ago. Apple stock is STRONG and will continue to be the IBM of this century.

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