Updated 2:45pm est
Apple (AAPL) shares recovered this afternoon after trading as low as $623.55 earlier today; briefly dipping into correction territory from its intraday high of $705.07 on September 21—the day the iPhone 5 went on sale. The largest stock in the world is roughly 3% below its 50-day moving average of $658, despite more leaks about an iPad mini. Investors are backing off, but according to Bespoke Investment Group, there could be opportunity to get in right here.
Apple hasn't traded below its 50-day M/A in 49 trading days. B.I.G. went back ten years, since the launch of the iPod, to look at how the stock reacts after breaking below the 50-day when it was above it for at least one month. Here's the typical recovery:
Apple Share Performance After Breaking Below 50-Day
Next Week: +1.92%
Next Month: +1.84%
Next 3 Months: +9.29%
Among potential catalysts for AAPL are rumored plans to announce an iPad mini, although Apple still hasn't confirmed whether an event invitation is coming. The Wall Street Journal reports Asian component suppliers have received orders to make as many as 10 million units in Q4.
"I'm a lousy guy to tell you to back off Apple because I love what they do and because I think this iPad mini is a killer," says Jon Najarian, co-founder of OptionMonster.com. "It's really tough for Apple to keep things secret because, number one, they make most of the stuff over in China and soon in Brazil as well, and there can be leaks, significant leaks."
Note, Breakout co-host Jeff Macke and Jon Najarian both have long positions in Apple. As a shareholder, Macke questions whether there's space in the tablet marketplace for a smaller 7 to 8-inch device.
"You bet!" is Najarian's answer to that concern. "If you're somebody who's used to holding a book, or a Nook, or a Kindle Fire, this is going to be much more like that. I think you're also going to see a retina display; I think they'll spend the money on it so that it's going to be a little more amazing."
Not everyone is as exuberant at these levels. Analysts at Nomura initiated coverage of Apple today with a "neutral" rating and $710 price target. Najarian's price target for the end of 2013 is $800.
The jury is out for Apple's next act. Are you buying or selling on this pullback? Let us know in the comment section below or visit us on Facebook!
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