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    • It's been so long since the stock market has done anything except inch higher, making it easy to lose sight of the big picture for stocks. The reality is, the S&P 500 is less than 3% off it's all time highs. Regardless of whether you think this is a buying opportunity or the beginning of the end of the rally, there's still time for traders to adjust their portfolios.

      Count Charles Nenner, founder of the Charles Nenner Research Center, as someone who thinks the sell-off has only just begun. In the attached video, Nenner explains that those buying now in anticipation of an improving economy have missed the bus by four years. Good news gets bought once by the smart money, he says. Expectations that the macro picture will improve were a bullish catalyst in 2009. Now it's time to sell the news.

      Nenner says his firm took off all of its equity exposure when the S&P was at 1,510 specifically so they "wouldn't have to deal with all this mess." He bases his work on cycles of time and price. From that perspective he says stocks are going to be forming a top in late April. Any market close more than a couple points below 1,544 on the S&P 500 would be an indication to him the market is ready to roll over in a big way. As of mid-day Friday, stocks are bouncing between 1,540 and 1,550; perilously close to what Nenner would consider a technical breakdown.

      What happens then?

      Read More »from Stocks Set to ‘Get Scary’ in May, Says Nenner
    • For a brief period this month an electronic form of currency called bitcoins were all the rage. Promoted as an alternative to paper or "fiat" currency, bitcoin caught a popular wave with the public and became the it investment of the moment. With high profile investors like the Winklevoss twins, it seemed like nothing could stop the momentum.

      Then as quickly as it inflated, the bitcoin bubble burst. After rising from $20 in February to $266 on April 10th, bitcoin crashed on April 11th, dropping more than $100 before trading was halted. The crash took the price of a bitcoin down more than 75% from its highs to the lows. As usual, it's the latecomers who are getting hit with the biggest losses.

      Bitcoin will make a nice cautionary tale someday, but so do stories of the housing bubble, the Internet bubble, and every collapse since Dutch Tulips in the 17th century. Some even say the decline of Apple (AAPL) shares and gold's recent price slide are indicative of modern-day bubbles.

      If the masses could really learn anything from these disasters then bubbles would be a thing of the past, rather than regular occurrences. Most people just can't help themselves when tempted with the prospect of easy money.

      That doesn't mean you have to be the next victim of a bubble mania. In this edition of Investing 101, Robert Luna of SureVest walks us through 5 signs of an investment bubble.

      1) Valuations deviate significantly from a long-term historical average

      Read More »from The Bitcoin Implosion: 5 Signs of an Investing Bubble
    • Facebook (FB) is still the most important social network for U.S. teens, but watch out, Twitter is quickly gaining share according to Piper Jaffray’s semi-annual teen survey. Among U.S. teens, 33% rank Facebook number one, with Twitter coming in a close second place with 30%. Most notable is the change from the previous Fall 2012 survey showing Facebook at 42% and Twitter at 27%. Instagram rounded out the top three with 17%, compared to 12% in the Fall.

      “It is ultimately a long-term problem for Facebook,” says Gene Munster, senior analyst at Piper Jaffray, before reminding us that Facebook owns Instagram, so the two can be viewed collectively. It was last April that Facebook announced its $1 billion acquisition of the photo-sharing app company.

      From that perspective, Facebook & Instagram combined lost 4% share to Twitter from the Fall 2012 to Spring 2013 (see chart below).

      “Ultimately, near term there is still a big opportunity for Facebook to continue to add new ways to monetize the existing base; they’re under-monetized today,” says Munster. “This isn’t something you’re going to see in the numbers in the next couple quarters, but I’m sure if you’re Facebook and you’re looking at these trends, you’re probably taking notice and trying to figure out how you can navigate this brand amongst teens.”

      Read More »from Facebook Is Still #1 for Teens, But Watch Out for Twitter! Says Munster
    • Retail Investors Are Being Fooled by Bernanke: Biderman

      Philosopher George Satayana once said, “Those who cannot remember the past are condemned to repeat it.” When it comes to the market, retail investors have been guilty of this transgression time and time again by getting into the market at precisely the wrong time.

      According to Charles Biderman, chairman of TrimTabs Investment Research, “mom and pop” retail investors could be at it again. His firm, among other things, tracks inflows and outflows of cash in the market. As the market pushed to new highs in the first quarter, it appears individuals investors that were trying to ignore the market that once burned them, came back because of the allure of higher returns.

      “Individuals put money into the market the first 4 months of the year, as they usually do, and not in the last 8 months,” Biderman says, though most of this money flow is for tax-oriented reasons. Using TrimTabs flow data, Biderman claims the inflow into equities this year hasn't been “money leaving bonds, but it was money leaving checking accounts; instead of putting money into the banks, using that money to buy stocks.”

      TrimTabs research shows that as $51.9 billion flowed into U.S. mutual and ETF funds in Q1 (the highest since Q1 2004), savings deposits slid 66% from previous quarter, and were down 51% compared to Q1 2012.

      The markets cooled off after a blistering Q1, with this week alone revealing a desire on the part of traders and investors to seek safety and cash out. In fact, CBOE Volatility Index (^VIX), aka the “fear gauge," has jumped nearly 20% so far this week, indicating bearish bets are gaining traction.

      Read More »from Retail Investors Are Being Fooled by Bernanke: Biderman

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