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    • It's only the third time in the past twenty quarters that GDP has come in above 3%. You'd think the "hallelujahs" would be heard far and wide on hopes that maybe we're finally turning the corner on a half-decade that's been plagued by sub-par growth and recession.

      Unfortunately, that's not the case though, as markets and economists alike knew immediately that there was more to the story than a positive 3.1% headline number suggests.

      "It's an encouraging sign, but I wouldn't get too excited about it," says Kevins Cummins, senior U.S. economist at UBS, in the attached video. "It is a bit backward looking and a bit dated," he says of the report on growth from July, August and September.

      Officially, the third and final report on Q3 GDP from the Commerce Department shows that 0.7% of the gain came from inventories, and that without it "real final sales of domestic product -- GDP less change in private inventories -- increased 2.4%," as the press release from the Bureau of Economic Analysis states. Add in a 9.5% increase in federal government expenditures, and you hit your headline number.

      Read More »from Federal Spending, Rising Inventories Mask Much Weaker Economy
    • NYSE Euronext (NYX) is ripping higher by more than 30% today on news that it will be purchased by IntercontinentalExchange (ICE) for a stock and cash deal worth $8.2 billion. The deal will give ICE, an operator of global futures exchanges and other OTC functions, control of one of the most venerable names in finance in the form of the New York Stock Exchange.

      In a sign of the times, the NYSE is actually a relatively small portion of the deal for ICE. Physical exchanges are anachronisms, as much television studios as trading floors. This deal is about ICE getting NYSE Euronext's Liffe division, which is a leading market for derivative products.

      The deal won't have an impact on the average equity investor. As my Breakout partner Matt Nesto says in the attached video, "most investors are exchange agnostic; they put in an order and in this day and age you don't know where it's going."

      Reassuringly, the NYSE will remain a physical symbol and heart of American capitalism. As for where the

      Read More »from NYSE Euronext Deal Won’t Change the Way You Trade
    • For Apple (AAPL) shareholders waiting for their beloved stock to recover, there's good news and bad news. First the bad news: Unless or until Apple comes up with another hot product, the stock has likely put in its all time highs. The iPhone and iPad remain the leaders in their categories but the gap is closing and margins eventually will do the same.

      Eric Jackson, founder of IronFire Capital says not to worry, help is on the way in the form of the long-awaited Apple Television. Citing the work of Morgan Stanley analyst Katy Huberty, Jackson says Apple's earnings could double just off iTV in the next two years.

      Based on extensive consumer surveys Huberty estimates that Apple could sell 13 million TV sets at over $1,000 a piece within 12 months of introduction. That alone would add $14 billion to revenues and $4.50 to earnings. Therefore revenue and earnings estimates of $220 billion and $57 respectively, will have to be moved higher on a base case.

      Jackson takes it another step further, noting that Huberty's data was only based on U.S. consumers calling themselves "very interested" in buying an iTV unit. Expanding that to include those who are "somewhat interested" brings in an additional 43 million units. Assuming Apple continues to do 2/3 of its sales overseas bumps the total potential target market for iTV to as much as $168 billion in revenues and $54 dollars in earnings.

      Read More »from iTV Could Double Apple’s Earnings Next Year Says Eric Jackson
    • By all accounts and barring an 11th hour implosion, 2012 looks set to go down in the win column for stocks, with the Dow (^DJI), S&P 500 (^GSPC) and Nasdaq (^IXIC) all putting up fairly impressive numbers for the year. And yet, getting to those gains has been anything but easy and left many investors in the dust along the way.

      Take the Dow for example. To capture its 9% year-to-date gain, investors had to blindly hang on through a 2,000 point price range. Similar swings, on a percentage basis, were also seen for the other equity benchmarks in the course of the year, although the prize at the end of the ride for them has been gains in the mid-teens.

      The problem with benchmark and performance chasing is that it often doesn't work. Which is why John Hailer, president and CEO of Natixis Global Asset Management, thinks investors need to get real about risk and focus on creating what he calls "durable portfolios."

      "We've seen individual and institutional investors pull away from the market place because of the volatility and the risk," Hailer says in the attached video, explaining the need to build a portfolio that helps you ride through the cycles and sleep better at night.

      Read More »from Is Your Portfolio Durable Enough for 2013?

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