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    • Maybe Washington DC isn't as daft as is commonly assumed. For seemingly the first time in this already endless debate, House Speaker John Boehner and President Obama are actually talking numbers and compromise. As of this morning there's even a so-called "back-up plan" if a full deal does not happen.

      Granted, the two sides are still miles apart and the peanut gallery is still in full throat, but the mere hint of a budging from the leadership on both sides is a marked improvement over what has been seen thus far.

      Jeff Kilburg, founder & CEO of KKM Financial, is optimistic. "I think we have a deal," Kilburg says in the attached video. "We'll see if we can hash it out, but I'm really positive and I think the market reflects it."

      Kilburg cites the significant rally in the S&P 500 since the November lows as evidence of growing optimism. While words like "optimistic" and "confident" are relative, Kilburg's targets are not. He's looking for another 5% to 10% rally to drag stocks well past multi-year highs made in mid-September.

      Read More »from How to Trade a Fiscal Cliff Deal
    • Of all the year-end indicators out there, the Santa Claus rally is perhaps the most misunderstood, says Jeff Hirsch, editor in chief of the Stock Trader's Almanac. "People use the phrase sort of loosely for any sort of year end rally," he explains in the attached video, when in fact, its parameters and indicators are quite precise.

      "The Santa Claus rally, as defined by the Stock Trader's Almanac and Yale Hirsch who created it (in 1972), is the last five trading days of the year plus the first two of the New Year," Hirsch says, acknowledging that this particular indicator is often confused with the January Barometer.

      In addition, the Santa Claus rally has a dual mandate, so to speak, as it marks an above average chance that this period will be positive, and it is also an indicator for the year to come.

      As Hirsch conveys, since 1950, the S&P 500 has averaged 1.5% gains for that 7-day window. "Not a big gain, but a nice little positive," is how he describes it. "There's this general buying bias by the pros at the end of the year after tax-loss selling."

      Read More »from The Santa Claus Rally: It’s Not Make Believe
    • One of the traits that made Ron Popeil one of the greatest salesmen of all time was his ability to make a product seem better and better. Just when you thought the case for owning a particular gadget couldn't possibly get any better, Popeil would deliver his famous line, "but wait -- there's more," and further compel you to reach for your wallet.

      While speaking with Tom Lydon, editor of ETFtrends.com, I had a Ron Popeil moment. Lydon's latest investment strategy seemed to be bordering on too-good-to-be-true. Not only is he making the case for the outsized growth opportunity that is available from Emerging Markets in an otherwise lackluster world, but in the attached video he's also working in a way that let's you get paid while you wait.

      Emerging market countries and companies, Lydon points out, are often in much better shape than than their counterparts in the U.S. and Europe. "Oh and by the way, they're making a lot of money and kicking off some pretty good dividends too," he adds.

      Ten years ago, iShares MSCI Emerging Markets (EEM) used to be the place "for your speculative money," but Lydon says that has changed. In fact he says 55% of global market cap comes from outside the U.S., not to mention mention most of the world's GDP growth.

      "If you can get on average four, five, and in some cases, 6% dividend yield while you're waiting for global markets to get traction; not a bad yield."

      Read More »from Emerging Markets as a Dividend Play? You Bet, Says Lydon
    • Since Breakout started, Jim Paulsen of Wells Capital Management has come on the show regularly and expressed a bullish view. Despite weak earnings, fiscal cliffs, debt-ceiling debates and downgrades, he's been right. Now, he's doubling down on his bullish view for 2013.

      "Next year will probably be the fifth consecutive year of positive equity returns," Paulsen says in the attached video. He's looking for double-digit returns without the terrifying dips and rips we've seen since the bullish streak started in 2009. Ironically, he thinks gains in 2013 may be the hardest to justify from a fundamental perspective.

      It's not the earnings that are going to drive us, he says. Earnings growth and margins have been tailing off hard over the back half of 2012, and Paulsen is looking for more of the same in the months ahead. What will move the markets higher in Paulsen's estimation is a willingness of investors to pay up for each dollar of earnings in the S&P 500.

      That willingness to ascribe more value to earnings is what drove the bulk of the market's gains in 2012. By Paulsen's math, the S&P 500's price-to-earnings (P/E) multiple has gone from 13x to 14.5x over the course of the year. That works out to an 11.5% gain on what each dollar of EPS is worth, accounting for most of the year's appreciation.

      Read More »from In 2013, Stocks Set for Fifth Straight Year of Gains: Paulsen

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