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    • Apple (AAPL) devotees are generally quick to blame some combination of Wall Street and the press for the 30% decline in AAPL shares since September. The grim reality is that Apple burned the Street long before analysts started the downgrade parade and the press just reported the story.

      After not missing estimates a single time for more than five years, Apple, under current CEO Tim Cook, has missed analyst estimates 3 out of 5 quarters. Since the most recent miss last October, shares have lost more than 25%. If Apple wants to get its groove back the first step is going to be coming in somewhere north of $14.20 EPS on about $56 billion in revenues.

      But hitting estimates is less than half the story for Apple at this point. Far more concerning is the company's uninspired business model. Last year at this time rumors were everywhere that Apple was on the verge of "solving" television. According to Jeff Kilburg, founder & CEO at KKM Financial, rumors out of China this year involve seven or eight new products including low-end smartphones, a larger screen for the iPhone and, yes, Apple television.

      "A lot of folks have actually talked about how they're not innovating anywhere," Kilburg asserts in the attached video. "Seven products in 2013; it's going to be a big year for Apple."

      Read More »from Apple Earnings Need to Come in BIG
    • Google (GOOG) reports earnings for their fourth quarter after the market close today. Average estimates are for the company to earn $10.52 per share on $12.3 billion in revenue. After what happened after third quarter earnings when Google's stock plunged after the company released numbers four hours early and 10% lower than analysts expected, anything on time and in-line with expectations would be a relief to existing investors.

      What spooked the Street most last October was the utter disaster in Google's Motorola Mobility division. According to Jeff Kilburg, founder & CEO KKM Financial, that troubled division is going to be front and center on tonight's call as well.

      "We're focused on where they're going to come in with that Motorola Mobility," Kilburg says. Last time around the group lost a jaw-dropping $527 million total and $151 million on an operating basis, on $2.6 billion in revenues. Now that the bloom is off the rose for the iPhone 5, the Street will give Google a pass on losing some money on smartphones, but only if the company can clearly explain why a search engine needs to make hardware.

      Speaking of hardware Google won't be making, the company sold its Motorola Home Business division for $2.35 billion in a deal announced last month. Jettisoning a unit that makes set-top cable boxes makes sense, but seems to be creating some accounting issues.

      Read More »from How to Play Google Into Earnings
    • "Pessimism never won any battle," President Dwight Eisenhower once said, summarizing an unflinching determination that carried him through the D-Day invasion of Normandy and two terms in the White House. Today, almost 60 years to the day since he took office, pessimism is again clouding our vision and undercutting our confidence, especially on Wall Street where pros and punters alike are gripped by the uncertainty that's emanating from Washington.

      And yet, there are a few contrarians out there who not only refute this pessimism but embrace it. They see the negativity and the unknown outcomes that might emerge from the fast-approaching debt-ceiling showdown as a buying opportunity.

      Related: Debt Ceiling Is the ‘Big Wildcard’ for Investors, Says UBS’ Lefkowitz

      "There are more positive bullet points on the negative sentimental front," says Ryan Detrick, senior technical strategist at Schaeffer's Investment Research, in the attached video. His seemingly inverted logic adds up all the areas of the investment universe that are signaling doubt and concern right now and acts on them.

      "One of our favorite things that shows a lot of negativity is short interest," he says. "If you look at overall short interest on the S&P 500, it's as high as it was last June," a time when stocks had slumped to their annual low amidst fears about Europe breaking up and about China triggering a global slowdown. "Those shorts very well could be a suggestion that, yes, we're overextended in the near term, but there's still a lot of potential buying power that could push this market that much further and that much faster."

      Read More »from All That Pessimism Is Actually Your Friend
    • Bonds are going down but not for the reasons you think. At least that's the view of Yves Lamoureux, president of Lamoureux & Co. He was early and right saying the 30-year bond would hit a 2.5% yield, so ignore him at your peril.

      Of course, bond bears have been getting smoked for the last 18 months trading on what should happen. Standard & Poor's downgrade of U.S. credit of 2011 should have taken down bonds and driven yields higher. That is specifically what a downgrade is supposed to do.

      But it never happened. Foreign and domestic money continued to pour into U.S. debt regardless of the downgrade and recent warnings from Moody's and Fitch. Lamoureux believes yields are finally, at last, moving higher.

      "In the case of the Treasury market it was a beneficiary of the European debt situation," he says in the attached clip, "so we had money moving into U.S. bonds."

      Related: Bond Market Entering Shift Not Seen Since 1946 Says Yamada

      This time is different in that he thinks the pressure is growing too strong for there to be any safe haven in debt.

      Read More »from Beware of Bonds: Long-Term Investors Will Get Crushed Says Lamoureux

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