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    • It wasn't that long ago that Fed watching was such an important skill and lucrative occupation that investors used to actually try to game the system based on the girth of former Fed chief Alan Greenspan's briefcase as he walked into policy meetings.

      Today, the Fed is not only more transparent and available, its meetings for the next year are set to be "the most boring thing to cover on the planet," says Jeff Kleintop, chief market strategist at LPL Financial. "There is no way they're going to be doing anything over the course of the next year."

      This was clear Wednesday in the aftermath of the central bank's staggered decisions and commentary throughout the afternoon. The more Bernanke spoke, the more tweaks and thresholds he laid down, the less the markets liked it.

      "I think the market got quickly disillusioned that the Fed was communicating some new extended amount of stimulus," Kleintop says, when in fact, it wasn't.

      Welcome to the new club Fed, where everything is just like you remember it. Same management. Same design. Fresh coat of paint.

      As Kleintop and many other market watchers are quick to point out, the normal inclination to embrace risk and not fight the Fed and its stimulative ways has been dwarfed by the fiscal cliff. Even Bernanke himself is talking up his mortality and limitations, Kleintop says, arguing that with all the intervention in the world "it's not nearly enough to offset the impact of the drag and tax increases and spending cuts associated with the fiscal cliff."

      Read More »from A Dovish Fed = Risk On, Right? Not So Much
    • The Federal Reserve accomplished two things yesterday, one expected and another that changed their entire decision-making process. The expected part was replacing the balance sheet neutral Operation Twist with a plan to purchase an additional $45 billion in long-term treasury securities while ceasing to sell short-term notes to fund the purchases.

      In other words, the Fed is going to keep buying things as before but will now be using borrowed money. The program will add $1 trillion to the Fed's balance sheet in 12 months.

      The stunner was Bernanke putting an explicit goal on unemployment of 6.5%. While the Fed has always given numerical inflation targets, employment goals were left fuzzy. Not anymore. As long as unemployment is greater than 6.5%, Wall Street can assume stimulus will stay in place or pick up steam.

      "Previously they were giving us a date, they said they anticipated rates would stay low through mid-2015. What they wanted to do now was to frame it not so much as a specific date, but to put it in terms of economic indicators," explains Michelle Girard, senior economist at RBS, in the attached clip. As a result the market gets more information as to what the Fed is looking at and what they want to achieve.

      Read More »from New Fed Metrics, QE4 Won’t Cure What Ails the U.S. Economy: Girard
    • Since Warren Buffett has once again entered the current debate over tax increases by calling for the federal estate tax to go up, it only seems fair to see how his latest round of proposed changes would actually impact him. Buffett is among America's super rich, and his fortune, at $46 billion, is second only to Microsoft founder Bill Gates'.

      Prior to his latest call for the upward revision of the estate tax, the Berkshire Hathaway Chairman has also recently called for income, capital gains and dividend taxes to go up too, explaining in a widely discussed op-ed in The New York Times ("A Minimum Tax For The Wealthy") that higher tax rates over the years have had no bearing on investors like him.

      As much as this may sound like selfless advice from a renowned financier who simply wants what's best for America, in reality he's immune from almost all of it. As I discuss with Aaron Brown, Risk Manager at AQR, in the attached video, Buffett's do-as-I-say, not-as-I-do proposals seem to fit the criteria needed to be a patriotic millionaire.

      "I just got fed up. It wasn't just Warren Buffett. There's been a half dozen of these things lately, and what I noticed is everyone is asking for taxes to be raised except the taxes they actually pay," Brown told me on the sidelines of the Minyanville Festivus event.

      So in that light, let's look at the gap that exists between proposed tax hikes and actual impact.

      Read More »from Buffett, Soros Join List of Billionaires Calling for Tax Hikes They Won’t Pay
    • "I think the Japanese equity market is probably the strongest of the equity markets, perhaps around the world," says Paul Desmond, president of Lowry Research.

      It's a comment deserving of its own paragraph primarily because Japan last made money for long-side investors before most of us were born, professionally speaking. Since peaking at 38,957 at the end of 1989, the Nikkei 225 (^N225) benchmark index has dropped 75%, currently residing at a mere 9,581.

      From a fundamental perspective, Japan is in a recession and has no apparent prospects for growth of anything above 2% under the best case scenarios. None of which matters much to Desmond as a pure chart player.

      Desmond says the Nikkei made a significant bottom in July from which its risen to what is now an 8 month high. The rally is broad based across market caps with the number of companies making new 52-week highs expanding. Both bullish signs in the chart world.

      Read More »from Japan: The Strongest Equity Market in the World Says Desmond

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