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    • Wednesday afternoon the Federal Open Market Committee will release its latest monetary policy statement. For comparison, the March statement is posted on FederalReserve.gov. If you must engage in the act of combing through each word, it's always best to have the prior release in front of you when the new one hits the wires.

      Hugh Johnson, chairman and CIO at HJ Advisors, says investors are safe in assuming that there aren't going to be any seismic shifts in policy. "It's going to be pretty much the same statement," Johnson says in the attached video.

      Ticking through the old favorites, Johnson says he's looking for commentary on low rates, unemployment, slow growth, etc. "You can parse all you want but basically that's what it's going to tell you," he states.

      The exception is whether or not the list of dissenters to current policy expands beyond Esther George. It's the behind the scenes debate regarding the timing of tapering the quantitative easing programs that Johnson is paying

      Read More »from Fed Governor Speeches Are the New FOMC Statement: Johnson
    • Had you adhered to the old adage "sell in May and go away" for the past three years, you would have not only avoided a lot pain, but you would have likely outperformed the benchmarks, as well. This as the springs of 2010, 2011 and 2012 each marked the starting point for sell-offs that would shave anywhere from 9% to 19% off of the S&P 500 (^GSPC) in just a matter of months.

      In the case of Jeff Hirsch, the editor-in-chief at the Stock Trader's Almanac, it's not just about going away from the stock market, he says investors need to have a strategy that will carry them through until the fall.

      "When you come around to the end of the best six months, e.g. April, and the market is up as it is, we start to get defensive," Hirsch says in the attached video. By putting what he calls "the prevent-D on the field," he implements a host of portfolio changes, such as tightening up stop-loss levels to bring them closer to the appreciated value of assets; limiting the new purchase of positions; undergoing simple profit-taking in winners and culling losers; and looking for possible short ideas and some asset shifting into bonds.

      Historically, since the 1950s, Hirsch says the longer-term "sell in May" results are also compelling, but never more so than in the past three years. In 2010, for example, the high watermark set in late April did not get permanently eclipsed until December — and then, only by about 3%. In 2011, the high of the year was hit on May 2 after the S&P 500 had gained 9%. But over the next five months, stocks fell 20% and would ultimately finish the year flat, which was still 8% below where they were eight months before. And then again, in 2012, a searing hot first quarter saw a high set in April, followed by a sell-off and five unproductive months while the market got back to even.

      Read More »from Sell in May and Go Where? Preparing for the Market’s Slow Season
    • "Bull markets don't go wrinkle free," says Hugh Johnson, chairman & CIO of Hugh Johnson Advisors. "They get a bit overvalued and a little undervalued. Right now, if anything, we're a little overvalued."

      Not wanting his observation to be construed as a trading call, Johnson says no one has a timing edge, even if they claim otherwise. The prudent thing to do as he sees it isn't to jump in or out of stocks entirely, but simply to "drag your feet when it comes to making new commitments to the equity markets."

      While not a trader per se Johnson does have his timing "tells," one of which is to take money off the table when a stock or sector's price starts to lag that of the market as a whole. Trim a little to stay ahead of a real pull back that tends to shake investors out at the lows.

      On a 5 to 8% pullback, Johnson is a huge buyer. He sees no evidence whatsoever that the bull cycle is coming to an end (fits and starts on the economy aside).

      Johnson's biggest contrarian play is a whopper.

      Read More »from Market Is Overvalued, ‘Drag Your Feet’ on New Stock Buys, Says Johnson
    • The NY Post is reporting that "at least two major hedge funds" have amassed significant stakes in troubled, near dead, strategically challenged retailer JC Penney. The news comes on the heels of last week's SEC filing from George Soros revealing a 7.9% stake in JC Penney (JCP) stock.

      Adding to the JC Penney positive news from earlier this morning, the company confirms it secured a $1.75 billion financing package from Goldman Sachs (GS). The terms have been rumored to be a remarkably generous 7%.  [JC Penney has now confirmed the financing from Goldman; demand is rumored to be strong suggesting a yield between 5 and 6%]

      A whopping 36.8% of JC Penney's float was short as of April 15th. A big part of the short thesis had been the very real possibility that the company wouldn't have the liquidity to make it to the Christmas buying season.

      Between the Post's unnamed funds and Soros, the timing of the stock purchases are curious if not flat out suspicious. JC Penney had been known to be looking for loans for months, and Goldman no doubt shopped the deal around the Street to find indications of interest.

      JC Penney stock has been locked in the mid-teens for almost two months. So much smart money jumping in all at once is curious if not a smoking gun. Knowing the deal was likely to get done would have made the $15 area a low-risk entry point.

      The company still has a laundry list of problems, but at least for the moment liquidity isn't one of them. "This company obviously has a lifeline now," says Yahoo Senior Columnist Michael Santoli in the attached clip. "You can kind of make the case that if JCPenney can at all stop the bleeding, maybe there's value there." Nothing beats a couple billion dollars at favorable rates when it comes to stanching a cash bleed.

      Read More »from What Luck! Hedgies Load Up on JCP Ahead of Debt Lifeline

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