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    • Marc Chandler, head of global currency strategy at Brown Brothers Harriman, has both good news and bad news for the legions of Ben Bernanke haters. The good news is that Chandler expects Bernanke to obey the "informal rule" of two term limits for FOMC chairman. The bad news, for the haters of current policy, is that nothing is going to change if and when Bernanke leaves at the end of his term next January.

      Conventional wisdom is that vice chair of the Board of Governors, Janet Yellen, will take the helm next, but that's of little consequence. What matters is policy and, more specifically, when the FOMC starts weaning the markets off years of Quantitative Easing (QE).

      With economic data coming in slightly better than expected and junk debt yields dropping below a somewhat preposterous 5%, the market is starting to toy with the notion that QE may be coming to a halt sooner than expected. Chandler says the Fed is going to see more than just another "phase" of stronger data before calling a halt to the most controversial economic stimulus program since FDR was in office.

      Related: Bernanke Must Come Clean on 'the Big Lie' Says Whalen

      No one uses the term anymore, but Chandler describes the Fed as being in a box. They want to stimulate to assist job creation but can't do so at the expense of savers or those currently being baited into high-risk investments by the Fed's perversely low interest rates. Pushing investors out on the risk curve and then burning the bridge behind them is bad form and bad policy. The Fed only has "blunt tools" with which to work, Chandler maintains. It doesn't matter whether QE ends abruptly or with tapering, it's going to hurt when it happens.

      Read More »from QE Tapering Won’t Start Until Q4: Chandler
    • Expectations are for courteous questions and familiar answers when Federal Reserve chairman Ben Bernanke sits before the Joint Economic Committee in Congress today. After all, it's not as if the two-term Fed chief doesn't have his story down by now. What that means is that he should be able to reiterate his outlook of cautious confidence and reassure the world that things are improving and that the Fed will be able to extract itself from its easy money stance when the time is right to do so.

      Related: QE Tapering Won't Start Until Q4 Says Chandler

      But for Fed watcher Chris Whalen, a managing director at Carrington Investment Services, the world would be well served if Bernanke came clean on the short-comings of his global inflation strategy.

      "The big lie among all the central bankers is that they can do something to help grow jobs and get the economy back to where it was," Whalen says in the attached video. "Despite everything they've done for the past five years, the pool of credit is shrinking," he says, and in many markets, is actually deflating.

      To be fair, Whalen says it's not just Bernanke who is blowing new asset bubbles, he thinks it's a global condition. And nowhere is it more conspicuous than in Japan where he likens the country's new inflation-creation policy by way of a weaker Yen to a ''deliberate act of economic war."

      Read More »from Bernanke Must Come Clean on ‘the Big Lie’ Says Whalen
    • He's been called the golden boy, the best banker in America, the person singly responsible for JP Morgan's (JPM) success, and someone too important to be messed with. But if you ask Chris Whalen if Jamie Dimon, or any bank CEO, should hold both the chairman and CEO titles he'll tell you straight up that it's a terrible mistake.

      "The division of jobs is not about efficiency or stock performance. It's about accountability," says Whalen, the managing director at Carrington Investment Services. "There's really no protection for the small shareholder, so you need accountability. You need to have the operator running the business and the board essentially oversees their activities."

      While many have argued that the 60% surge in shares of JP Morgan over the past year outweighs the black eye the bank and its leader suffered as a result of $6 billion so-called London Whale trading losses, Whalen is unmoved by that argument.

      "Everybody keeps going, 'oh the stock is up, Chris.' It's at book value, guys, and it's probably fairly valued," he says, characterizing Dimon's performance as a having done "a good job but not tremendous."

      And even if this vote had passed and the investors decided they wanted to split the two roles, Whalen points out, "the board has no duty to follow the wishes of shareholders" since it is a non-binding referendum. Even so, he predicts there will be change at JP Morgan.

      Read More »from JP Morgan’s Dimon Should Not Hold CEO and Chairman Titles: Whalen
    • Best Buy (BBY) reported earnings with a little something for everyone. For the bears there were shrinking revenues, declining margins and diminishing sales on a comparable store basis and just about every other numerical measure of results. The company pronounced the reported 32-cents non-GAAP and 29-cents GAAP profits to be "better-than-expected" but said more about expectations than Best Buy's quarter.

      Noting that the stock is up 125% in 2013, my Breakout co-host Matt Nesto is unimpressed. "Now the question is, do you believe these guys?" Nesto grumbles in the attached clip. "Why would you get on board the ship at these levels?"

      The answer depends on where you look. Last March BBY CEO Hubert Joly laid out the six focus areas of his Renew Blue turnaround plan. As discussed on Breakout at the time, those measures would be the appropriate way to gauge Best Buy's progress, particularly since the company itself suspended financial guidance. Applying these metrics to the results released this morning shows BBY making some degree of progress.

      Best Buy grew online sales 16%, struck a deal to establish Samsung Experience Shops, "negotiated overall rent reductions at a number of stores," ripped another $175 million of annualized SG&A expenses out of the supply chain and sold off its European operations. While the turnaround remains very much a work in progress, the company has a plan and is sticking to it — even if they aren't absolutely certain what the end result will be.

      Read More »from Best Buy’s Survival Story Taking Shape

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