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    • I've been talking about the relationship between the U.S. Dollar and the stock market, not to mention commodities, for months on Breakout. I mean a lot. Almost obsessively, really. The theme has been "Strong Dollar = Weak Stocks" and vice versa. It's been a point worth making, as evidenced by the price action again today with the dollar stronger against the Euro as stocks fall.

      According to Clark Yingst, chief market analyst at Joseph Gunnar, the relationship between the dollar and the euro is the market tell of 2011, dominating the tape to the point that other fundamentals are being all but ignored. Yingst says the ratio is getting whipsawed by "the latest reports and rumors emanating from Europe and that's the indicator of the direction U.S. stocks are going that day".

      Yingst says market reactions to earnings reports have been strictly company specific, with all other implications for the rest of the respective sectors. Pointing to IBM (IBM), Yingst says weakness in Big Blue's core businesses "should" have impacted competitors. When an industry leader like this sees weakness in core segments, the news typically puts a dent in related stocks. Instead companies such as Hewlett-Packard (HPQ) moved higher off IBM's results, carried along with the rest of the tape and, not at all coincidentally, a weak dollar.

      According to Yingst dollar strength is likely to persist. In September there "appeared to be a real breakout, technically speaking, in the dollar/euro." Pointing to a break of the dollar's 2-year downtrend as well as the 200-day moving average, Yingst forecasts near to intermediate term strength.

      Read More »from Dollar Strength Is Killing Stocks & Commodities
    • It's been a bumpy, generally negative, ride for commodities in 2011. This has been particularly true for crude oil and gold, both getting whipsawed by investor sentiment and wild shifts in mood regarding the global economy. Black gold is traditionally a proxy for global growth whereas gold is a place investors turn in times of economic strife.

      With both gold and crude well off their highs, the question facing investors is whether buyers are getting a value or catching a falling knife.

      WTI Crude peaked at about $114 in late April, before dropping to just over $75 earlier this month. Along the way black gold recorded its worst quarter in 3 years. What happened? Not shockingly, evidence points first to slowing growth, not just in the U.S. but China and emerging nations as well. Remember at the beginning of the year the pace of the economic recovery was in question. By summertime, the debate deepened into whether or not a global recession was unfolding. The price of crude oil behaved accordingly.

      The "big elephant in the room" is the European nightmare, according to Ed Meir, senior commodity analyst at MF Global. Meir is in the camp that a European recession will take the world down with it. He says crude prices have been reduced to moving "lockstep" with EU debt crisis developments.

      Of course, economic chaos is supposed to play into the hands of gold bugs who regard the barbaric metal as a safe harbor in crazy times. It's a thesis that has held strong when you look at the price of gold year-to-date, which has risen 16%. Latecomers to the gold party haven't been as lucky, at least since August. As equity prices crumbled in August gold ripped to $1,900 before dropping to current levels above $1,600 an ounce.

      Read More »from Commodity Chaos: How to Play Gold & Oil Now
    • After mushrooming from essentially zero to more than a trillion dollars in assets in the U.S., exchange traded funds, or ETFs, have gone from obscurity to being a household name in little over a decade. With over 1,000 different products to choose from, and new ones frequently hitting the marketplace, it comes as no surprise that these cheaper and tradeable alternatives to mutual and index funds now account for a third of daily U.S. trading volume.

      It's also not surprising that such a hot growth industry is undergoing unprecedented scrutiny from the Securities and Exchange Commission, Congress, the academic world, as well as from traders and the financial services sector itself. It's a polarizing debate that so far has not slowed the meteoric rise of ETFs, but testimony given Wednesday before a Senate subcommittee seems to have at least nudged the needle towards the side of the regulators.

      Even Blackrock (BLK), the world's biggest seller of ETFs, has called upon lawmakers to pursue a re-labeling rule that would redefine leveraged and inverse ETFs, likening them to derivatives for their ability to offer 2 to 3 times the move of a particular index on a given day, as well as the ability to move in the opposite direction.

      Testimony was given by Harold Bradley, the chief investment officer of the Kaufman Foundation, that linked leveraged ETFs to distorted market returns and suggested that this was also curtailing IPO activity, thus hampering economic growth. In the attached video clip, Bradley outlines some of the rules he believes must be implemented to ensure the stability of what insiders call market microstructure; but what you and I might call the "plumbing" that keeps our trading systems flowing.

      Read More »from ETFs Under Fire as Senate Probes the Need for More Regulation
    • After four years of fighting between government officials and commodity trading agencies of various stripes the Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) voted 3-2 to impose limits on the number of futures and swap contracts a trader can hold. The new restrictions are intended to reduce speculation and cap price spikes in oil, gold, and grain prices, among other commodities. But will this work as intended?

      It's mostly "brouhaha about getting speculation out of the markets," says Ed Meir, senior commodity analyst with MF Global. Leaving aside the fact that the only markets without speculation are grocery stores, the question is whether or not the CFTC's action is really a step towards eliminating spikes like we saw in 2008 when crude oil jumped to over $140 a barrel. The short answer is probably not.

      Meir says this compromised solution is going to make it more difficult for a market to find the natural, unregulated price of the commodities. The "bigger spreads and bigger price distortions" Meir describes are, of course, a field of trading dreams for exactly the type of reckless speculators the rule is intended to put out of business. For this and other reasons Meir characterizes the restrictions "more than a little baffling."

      Of course the CME has a long record of success in bursting what it views to be rampant speculation. When a commodity's price goes dangerously parabolic, the CME hikes margin requirements, forcing those who are potentially manipulating the price through leverage to come up with more cash immediately. The surprise margin hike is a brutally effective way to curb speculation, as those who were long silver in May of this year discovered the hard way.

      Read More »from Crackdown on Commodity Trading: A Good Idea Spoiled

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