"It's almost impossible to imagine that you were wrong but you might be this time."
So says tradeMONSTER.com Co-Founder Jon Najarian, gently dismissing my oft-stated opinion that last quarter would mark the start of a US recession. Najarian's view is supported by the government's latest report on retail sales, which came in at 1.1% for September, significantly higher than estimates.
The number was the latest a list of slightly-less-than-horrible economic data coming across the wires recently, nearly putting to rest the idea that a recession is going to be 2011's business.
I've got good company in my seemingly too pessimistic forecast; consumer sentiment readings fell to the lowest levels seen in 30 years. It would seem someone's data collection process is flawed, but Najarian is betting it's the opinion polls.
"Whether it's a Michigan sentiment survey, consumer confidence or whatever, that's absolute garbage and worthless," he says.Read More »from Najarian: Consumer Spending Shows U.S. Is Not in Recession