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    • Just as I was considering another attempt at hastening my journey to wealth via some form of speculation on stocks, a wise old sage came along and told me not to.

      "The game is rigged," says Jack Bogle, the octogenarian founder of The Vanguard Group. "It is too convoluted. It is too complex. You shouldn't be playing the game. You don't need to play the game."

      With his paternal loyalty intact, the man who created the first index fund 35 years ago is unbending in his belief that speculators lose, and owning the broader market for the long haul is the best path to wealth appreciation. Not surprisingly, the enormous popularity and diversity of offerings within the fast growing universe of exchange traded funds or ETFs, has failed to convert him.

      "The index investor doesn't need to be touched by any of the lunacy that is going on in the ETF market,"says Bogle. "The ETF industry, which has got to be the greatest marketing idea of this age, is not the greatest investment idea of this age, I can assure you."

      It's not so much products with triple leverage that irk him about ETFs, it's more the velocity that they represent. Bogle abhors the notion of trading and timing, and the long odds that go with it. He insists no one is smart enough to do that for the long haul.

      Read More »from The Game Is Rigged: Jack Bogle
    • Despite downward pressure today, stocks could still recoup last week's losses and post a 7th directional swing in the past 8 weeks. Since August 8th, every rally has been sold, every valley has been bought, and not many expect this to change. It's enough to drive you mad, and even exit the market, but legendary investor Jack Bogle, founder of the Vanguard Group says turning your back on stocks now would be a mistake.

      ''They're not cheap but they are still the place to invest,'' Bogle says. On a price-to-earnings ratio, the market is currently "a little above average," and on a dividend yield basis (currently about 2.5% for the S&P 500), Bogle says "they are way below average" of about 4.5%.

      However, when compared to bonds, stocks look cheap. Bogle believes stocks will outperform bonds over the next year, but with a lower rate of return than many investors have come to expect. With lower returns ahead of us and a "lost decade" behind us, the temptation to trade or time the market is great.

      "That's the silliest kind of thing to try to do," says the father of the index fund. "The odds are just terrible and the process is costly. You end up paying those croupiers on Wall Street money every time you turn around."

      Read More »from Stocks Are Still the Best Place to Invest: Jack Bogle
    • A funny thing happened to Gold on its way to $2,000 an ounce. Not so much funny "ha ha" as funny "Aaaaiiiieee!!!!!" as the ancient currency fell almost 20%, slipping all the way to the $1,500's. Did the plunge mark the end of the historic gold run or just a buying opportunity? To answer that question as well as give us a take on the buck and Treasuries Breakout welcomed Peter Lee, UBS' Chief Technical Strategist and all around good egg.

      By way of background, Peter came on Breakout and said all sorts of bullish things about gold on August 3rd. He was right about gold going parabolic. The Gold SPDR etf (GLD) made a 13% move in the ten trading days after his visit. Lee just over shot on his price target.

      In the big picture, however, nothing has changed. Gold remains the go-to "hedge against geopolitical turmoil as well as a currency hedge." He says gold will be marking some time in a range with "$1,535 to $1,550 on the downside and about $1,750 on the upside" before working its way higher.

      Obviously you can't talk about a currency hedge without addressing the currency itself, in this case the buck. The dollar has gained some strength recently, while the Euro is transmogrifying into a zombie currency, making traders seek out a save haven. Like it or not, the buck is still the safest choice of a sorry global lot.

      Read More »from Safe Haven Technicals: Gold, Bonds & the Buck
    • Investing isn't about sure things. It's supposed to be hard. The idea is to take a core of fundamentals, mix in some technical analysis, a heap of psychology, and a dash of luck. Like fishing, only with less tedium and none of the health benefits of getting fresh air.

      How then to explain the absurdly well-defined back and forth of the S&P 500 since the early August breakdown? You don't need a range finder to notice that since the Fed low of 1,100, the market has made no fewer than seven (7!) roundtrips between those lows and just over 1,200. You can use your own exact levels but the point is the same: there's an obvious trade worth 5-8%. Breakout welcomed UBS' chief technical strategist Peter Lee to tell me if I should just enter my buy and sell orders at either side of the range and spend the rest of my year doing something hard, like fishing.

      Lee says to hold on to my bait, "it's not that easy...something is going to give very soon." He says retail investors aren't playing my little range trading game. It's a bunch of hedgies and institutions pushing stocks around into the end of the quarter. "We don't think the buying is real," Lee says, suggesting fund managers are doing what's called "painting the tape" through Friday, which marks the end of Q3. And after that?

      Read More »from Next S&P 500 Trading Range to Watch (Out) For

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