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    • The collapse of the European Union as we know it is picking up steam and the impact is destroying US stocks.

      The problem stems from the unpleasant fact that Greek government debt is worthless, and no turnaround is in sight. No one, not even the European banks themselves, know just how much of this Greek government scrip is in the EU banking system. Greece is merely Patient Zero in a European, if not global financial Black Plague. Speculation is now focusing on a Greek default as soon as this weekend.

      This crisis has been staring the world in the face for months, if not years. Breakout hasn't been alone in trying to bring this to investors' attention, particularly as the situation began escalating earlier this week. Everyone knew the day of reckoning for the EU would come; the question was simply when the uncertainty would really start hitting the global equity markets.

      The new information exacerbating today's European and U.S. market sell-offs is the resignation of European Central Bank official Jeurgen Stark for "personal reasons," widely believed to be Mr. Stark's personal objection to an ECB balance sheet expansion through a bond purchase program.

      For its part, Greece announced this afternoon that it "rejects the talk of default." In a different context, Greece's announcement is adorable; akin to your kids rejecting the idea of bedtime. Given what's stake, it seems Greece remains in tragic denial.

      Now that the process of pricing in of Europe's economic reality is now in full swing, it's simply a matter of figuring out the size of this thing. In an effort to get a sense of the magnitude, I asked Rob Arnott, founder and CEO of Research Affiliates, if the toxic debt crisis in the EU could rival that of the 2008 U.S. financial meltdown.

      "This is bigger than Lehman in terms of scale," Arnott told me. "You're looking at most of the largest banks in Europe, which on a mark-to-market basis, are insolvent."

      Read More »from European Crisis Slams Stocks as Investors Fear Greek Default
    • No sooner do Fed Chief Ben Bernanke and President Obama deliver their over-hyped but underwhelming speeches and the market immediately moves on, relegating their words to the scrap heap that is yesterday's news, while re-focusing on renewed turmoil in Europe, including rumors that Greece may default on its debt as soon as this weekend, and the sudden resignation of the European Central Bank's Chief Economist.

      Sonny and Cher nailed it when they sang The Beat Goes On, because this market clearly knows what it wants and if it doesn't get it, seeks out something else to worry about.

      As a result, fund managers like Mike Mullaney of Fiduciary Trust in Boston continue to "err on the side of caution" by taking off risk and staying defensive. "Right now we are in a precarious situation" Mullaney says, "the level of GDP growth now is so slow and so low, that any exogenous factor could push us over the edge."

      Any hopes that the leader of the free world or the most important banker on earth were going to be able to talk us into a better place have proven futile, as Mullaney calls the President's speech "somewhat of a sleeper" and views Bernanke to be out of ammunition. That is not a new stance, but rather one that has been validated again over the past 24 hours.

      Before a year-end rally, Mullaney expects stocks to live down to expectations this month, saying "September is generally the dregs of the market place." Interestingly, he sees a retest of the lows in October, followed by a rally into the new year fueled by good old fashioned profit growth, which is estimated to be about 17%, but a market that is still posting at least a 5% loss so far this year.

      Read More »from As Euro Crisis Deepens & U.S. Policy Plans Disappoint, “Stay Defensive” says Fund Manager
    • The President's long-awaited address to Congress and the voting public wasn't a matter of a "style over substance." Obama delivered on the former, but there was little, if any, substance to chew on. The headlines were "$450 billion" and the phrase "pass this bill." The dollar figure was largely meaningless and as Matt Nesto noted, the President's call to pass the bill sounded more like the request of a salesman, not the mandate of a strong President.

      Every aspect of the vague program was short-term in nature. The much reviled Wall Street is constantly criticized for focusing on the short-term, yet the same President, placing himself on the frontline of class warfare, offered tax cuts running only through 2013. If you're currently planning or expanding a business you most likely are doing so with more than the next 5 quarters in mind. A major plant started today would be completed roughly at the same time as the proposed tax cuts expire. These tax breaks will do nothing to create jobs today.

      The bill is "$450 billion on the ask" as Nesto put it. For those unfamiliar with trading parlance, the ask is what the seller wants, the bid is what the buyers offer. In this case the would-be buyers are ultimately the voters. It seems unlikely Americans are going to surrender the nearly half a trillion without some evidence that the money will be better spent than what was dumped into stimulus efforts undertaken in 2009.

      Estimates on what the "American Jobs Act" would do for the economy range from our rather conservative figure of "nothing" to Mark Zandi's view that passage of the still-nonexistent bill would add 2 points to GDP and hack 1% off the 9.1% unemployment rate. Mr. Zandi is employed by Moody's, a ratings agency. It's worth noting that it's in Moody's best interest to curry favor with the White House in light of the abuse being heaped upon fellow ratings agency Standard & Poors for having the audacity to express a negative view of the government. Not to suggest that Mr. Zandi is in any way conflicted in his opinion; it's simply something to consider as the Administration rapturously embraces Moody's view.

      Read More »from Why the Obama Jobs Plan Is a Loser
    • By now you have likely heard the market described as "range bound" so many times that you're actually starting to believe it. And depending on the mood of the moment, the same could probably be said about "overbought" and "oversold" too. It is almost as if the benchmark indexes are held in some magical container, the ranges and rotation are so well defined.

      So if, like most investors, you subscribe to these boundaries, playing the game and winning it become that much more difficult.

      Take for example UBS Strategist Jeremy Zirin, who sees limited returns between now and the new year. "I don't see a lot of downside given the very strong valuation support but I don't see a lot of upside given the stagnation we are seeing in economic growth."

      It sounds like we are basically stuck here for a while until something breaks us out, so we might as well get comfortable. To do so, Zirin says you would be wise to focus on companies that have better secular growth prospect rather then cyclical growth prospects.

      "What I mean is, companies that can grow their earnings in both strong and tepid environments and aren't overly dependent on the business cycle for their earnings growth," he says, adding that "the best places to find that is in Tech and Consumer Staples."

      Drilling deeper, Zirin has a bias for businesses that are tapped into emerging markets, because "they will do better then domestically focused cyclical companies."

      Read More »from Sector Survival Guide for a Sideways Market & Flat Economy

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