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    • Question: How are Eurobonds like having your leg amputated?

      Answer: It's the last thing you want, but it could save your life.

      At least that's (sort of) how Jeff Kleintop, Chief Market Strategist at LPL Financial sees it. Kleintop, like the rest of us, knows full well that a European debt fix is needed before our own markets can meaningfully move forward.

      "Markets want a policy response but not from the Fed," Kleintop says. "They'd like to see it from Europe where our real debt problems lie. That's what has been swinging our markets around... and the markets are demanding some kind of response."

      With Jackson Hole and then Hurricane Irene overtaking our uninterrupted attention, it feels like a weird sort of reunion to suddenly be talking about the euro debt crisis again. And Kleintop says September could be a key month for European resolution.

      Not only is the European Financial Stability Facility (EFSF) gaining traction, but so is support for Eurobonds. Even facti0ns within Germany, whom he describes as the Tea Party of Europe, are warming to the idea.

      "You're talking about a $7 trillion government bond market that would be a highly rated alternative to U.S. Treasuries," Kleintop says. "The longer term solution is inevitably going to be the idea of Eurobonds."

      Read More »from Eurobonds Are the Inevitable Fix for Europe’s Debt Crisis: Kleintop
    • When we last spoke with Jeff Kleintop in late May, I characterized the optimistic Chief Market Strategist at LPL Financial as being "a zig in a world of zags" as he talked about upside in a market that was consumed with pessimism. Today, his counter-trend style splits the economy and the recovery in two.

      "Economic data is not actually pointing to recession," Kleintop says. "But if you look at sentiment indicators, they are weak; consumer and business sentiment is soft."

      On this front, Kleintop has a point.

      "The actual data -- things we count, actually produce - we're still seeing some pretty solid numbers there," he says, using July Durable Goods and Industrial Production reports as examples.

      On the flip side, he says a sharp market sell-off following the much weaker then expected report from the Philadelphia Fed Survey released on August 18th, is a good example of the rift. Kleintop says investors mistakenly viewed the regional data as a measure of actual manufacturing production, when in fact it is about manufacturing sentiment.

      Ultimately, Kleintop thinks the problem will solve itself. "Confidence will come around and connect to that data," which he says are coming in a lot better and aren't "even near recession territory."

      Read More »from America Is in a Recession of Confidence: Kleintop
    • A week ago I wrote a column entitled "Sell Today and Go Away". In it I described my reasoning for taking off my trading positions ahead of a vacation I took at the end of last week. For those keeping score at home, the S&P500 is now roughly 5% higher than it was before I made my unforced trading error. Selling off my trading longs (I didn't and don't have any shorts), became what's called a lost opportunity. My desire to chug a bottle of Hemlock is what's called trader's remorse.

      Which brings us today's Purple Crayon Segment: How to Handle a Lost Trading Opportunity. There are three very basic steps:

      Step 1: Kick yourself. Seriously. Here's an example straight from my internal monologue: "You are an idiot. You had money in your hand and you cast it into the wind so you could tan your bald head on some beach. Well done, meathead."

      Step 2: Get over it. Or drink the Hemlock. Living in regret is for chumps.

      Step 3: Get back to work with a clear mind.

      That's pretty much it. I'm over the

      Read More »from Purple Crayon: How to Handle a Lost Trading Opportunity
    • With the dollar debunked and Treasuries troubled, the world's other safe haven had no choice but to absorb transient demand and the price of gold reflected that, soaring $300 in the final month of its record run to $1900 an ounce.

      The irony is that those who did migrate to metals saw their new hideout become a bailout, while many assets they had fled weathered the storm and went higher.

      "Gold was and still is overbought" says Paul Hickey, co-founder of Bespoke Investment Group. "It has only been that overbought a few times in the past...and even after the decline, is still about 8% above its 50-day moving average."

      It's not like there weren't warning signs everywhere. Hickey says prior to last week's pop, the current gold bull market ran "a bit over 1,000 days, or more than twice as long as the average bull market in terms of duration, and 2 1/2 times the average in percentage change."

      The question now is whether gold is cheap or will it get even cheaper? Is it a safe haven or a risky bet right now?

      Read More »from Is Gold a Safe Haven or Risky Asset?

    Pagination

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