It's the first three-day rally for stocks since July 1st. And it's the best three-day percentage gain since the S&P 500 popped 11% in a small stretch that brought the market off the March 2009 lows.

While it may feel nice to have a summer relief rally, you'd better love it while it lasts because traders like Peter Kenny of Knight Capital say this will be gone before you know it. "This is only a tradable bounce for those who have got a very strong stomach," Kenny says from his firm's trading floor across the Hudson River in Jersey City, NJ. What's worse is that he thinks we're at the top of the range (for this year at least), and that we could see another 15-20% downside from here.

In the short-term, Kenny says we've had a change of focus with the "reintroduction of the M&A theme" today, courtesy of Google's (GOOG) $12.5 billion deal for Motorola Mobility (MMI) which some say is designed to mimic Apple (AAPL). While the longevity of these bounces will be largely dependent on economic data this week, "you still have to trade these bottoms," says Kenny.

The M&A pop "has given the market the opportunity to shift that myopic focus away from the Eurozone, which may not last that long, and away from the US debt ceiling and government spending," Kenny says before returning to his overall bearish thesis. "This is the life support for a market that's in a downward trend."

"Don't do something, stand there!" said investing legend Jack Bogle in interviews last week. The founder of The Vanguard Group is advising something resembling catatonia as much as calm; the old buy & hold investing philosophy.

"Bogle should be in the Hall Fame, not still playing the game," says hedge fund manager Simon Baker, the CEO of Baker Ave and a Friend of Breakout. The two comments define both sides of the perennial investing debate: "Can you time the market?"

Baker says yes, arguing that buy & hold is a relic of a bygone era when the economy was stable and consistent growth was the norm. Make no mistake, Baker isn't telling investors to lunge in and out of the market at the slightest provocation, merely that avoiding "2008 type markets" is obviously high on the list of pathways to investment success. That's fine in retrospect, but who could have seen this summer meltdown coming and how would someone have any idea when or if to get back into stocks?

Well, plenty of folks on Breakout saw it coming, including Baker himself during his May appearance when he suggested viewers exit Chinese stocks ASAP, noting that the fundamental and momentum landscape was worsening. Since that call, the widely-followed iShares China FXI index (FXI) is down some 18%, badly lagging the S&P500 as well as the NASDAQ.

Ok, fine, Baker has been good in his Breakout appearances and has a great long-term results. So what's he saying about the here and now?