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    • While our clearly oversold markets are catching a bounce off the better-than-expected jobless claims, nothing material has changed to truly give us confidence that this crisis is contained or discounted, let alone over.

      We are at the two-week mark in the current stock slump and now more than ever, the leadership void is obvious. Earlier today, investor eyes turned to Europe, where there's now talk of a futile and misguided attempt to regain control by banning short sales. Not only would it not work, it suggests to me that panic has spread to European leaders.

      In Europe, fear and contagion are roiling their banks and markets, even as the European Central Bank or "ECB" spends billions of other people's dollars buying Italian and Spanish bonds in a bid to stabilize them. As Macke says, "banking contagion" may sound heady and wonkish, but it's not that complicated given how intermingled our global financial system is. The situation is in Europe is no less muted today with talks of short sales and French President Nicolas Sarkozy pausing his August vacation.

      Add in the reality of a U.S. recession, whether it is here already, on the way, or ends up being narrowly averted, the global economy will be weak for at least another two-years. In my view, this was confirmed by our Fed Chief Ben Bernanke on Tuesday.

      The leadership vacuum here and abroad is both absolute and astounding. "President Obama is fundraising in New York today as the rest of us are losing funds," Macke quips. This hobnobbing comes just a week ahead of the President's scheduled 10-day vacation on Martha's Vineyard.

      So what's the bottom line? Trust and confidence are still absent in today's financial markets.

      Read More »from Stocks Gain But Trust & Confidence Are Still Lost
    • "The decision to abandon ship is usually very difficult. In some instances, people have perished in their life raft while their abandoned vessel managed to stay afloat. Other cases indicate that people waited too long to successfully get clear of a floundering boat." - Procedure For Abandoning Ship from BoatSafe.com

      The quote above is about nautical safety, but the parallels with the present situation in the stock market are abundant and clear.

      While all stocks have been hammered by this current storm, no corner of the market has been slammed harder than the small caps. As of this morning, the Russell 2000 (^RUT) is down more than 20% in the past month versus about a 15% drop for the S&P 500.

      To most investors, the 20% drop on the Russell is enough to characterize the small cap crash as a "Bear Market." However, veteran investor Ford Draper of Kalmar Investments believes the current turmoil must be more prolonged and agonizing to earn that dubious distinction. Instead, he sees this as an opportunity to trade up into companies he thinks have been ''unfairly crushed", to increase holdings where they have "great conviction", and to sell positions where they don't.

      "What I would say is don't abandon small caps. There are too many good individual opportunities there," Kalmar says. "Just make sure you don't have a high-risk for high-reward manager, but rather a low-risk for high-reward."

      Of course that's easy to say when you have a long-term track record of outperformance, a 4-star rating and a zen-like turnover ratio of just 29%. It also allows him to keep a straight face when using terms like "low risk" and "conservative" to describe their style even as he holds numerous stocks that have 20% short-term losses.

      Here's how he justifies it:

      Read More »from Don’t Abandon Ship on Small Cap Stocks: Fund Manager
    • Another rough day for stocks as a feared escalation in Europe's debt crisis skipped the pond and hit the U.S. markets hard. The Dow Jones Industrial Average fell 4.6% closing at 10,719 and the S&P 500 sunk 4.4% to 1120.

      It would be nice to call the bottom of the Summer of 2011 market meltdown. But confidence is key and there's too much uncertainty out there, making this the key debate on Wall Street right now: Has the market hit bottom?

      I'm pulling for the Bullish camp - the side that will hopefully look back and declare yesterday, Tuesday August 9th at 2:42pm EDT, stocks made their lows for 2011. For those scoring at home, the levels were 10,674 on the DJIA and within spitting distance of 1,100 on the S&P.

      At that exact moment the fear was palpable, the Fed Statement with its negative implications for the economy through 2012 was digested, and stocks were some 7% off their opening levels of Monday. The market looked into the abyss and found it's soul. As it turns out, the market's soul was a buyer of stocks, in size. Starting at 2:43 EDT on Tuesday, stocks exploded higher putting more than 6% between the lows and the 4:00pm close.

      Of such moments and reversals are market bottoms made. To debate the point, Matt Nesto and Aaron Task of the Daily Ticker joined me for a Financial Summit. Their list of fears is as familiar as it is harrowing.

      Here's why the Bearish camp believes stocks will move lower:

      * The fear still isn't bad enough. The VIX (^VIX) topped 40 today. But for market vets such as Nesto, 40 is nothing. Volatility has plenty of room to run higher.

      * Traders are still being tactical; buying levels like S&P 500 1,100 and trying to get footholds for long strategies. Two previously critical support levels - 1,250 and 1,140 on the S&P - held for a blink and collapsed. And 1,100 is no different.

      Read More »from Wall Street Tumbles 4%: Has the Market Hit Bottom?
    • This is just crazy. Where is Johnny Nash when we need him most to belt out his classic hit I Can See Clearly Now? Because really, these markets are seeing nothing but obstacles right now and the thought of a bright sun shiny day for the markets seems like a distant memory.

      "We don't have clarity," says Chicago-based bond trader Jeff Kilburg, the Sr. Development Director of Treasurycurve.com. "The market wants clarity and they want it now."

      On the one hand, Kilburg says we have been given an unprecedented degree of clarity from the Fed in terms of its new low rate forecast for the next two years, but on the other hand is the harsh economic reality that outlook portends, as well as the Fed's inability to do anything about it. "It's not 2008. Ben Bernanke is not rolling down the street in that tactical hummer with every weapon in his aresenal. He's more or less rolling in a mini van right now," Kilburg quips.

      With nearly 15 years of experience trading Treasuries, Kilburg is now more than ever looking to the bond market for leadership and to relinquish all notions on falling yields. "We had this exact conversation when the 10-year treasury came down to 3%. Now we just went down to 2%. Rewind back to April and the 10-year was at 3.75%," he points out.

      So are Treasuries are telling us we're in a recession?

      "I think we are, no doubt about it," says this former Notre Dame football player. "You can call it whatever you want... but I think we are actually bottoming out in the Treasury market...but I think we are going to see continued chaos...and I'm just hoping we get through this quickly."

      Read More »from Bond Market Sees Recession and QE 2.5 Already Underway: Trader

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