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    • Microsoft's stock puts the "trap" in "value-trap." The company still has a virtual monopoly with Office and a complete monopoly on the slow-growth PC OS (operating system) space. The two businesses are incredibly high-margin, bringing home some 60% gross margins. OS and Office are why Microsoft is sitting on nearly $50 billion in cash despite the company's horrifying history of terrible and expensive acquisitions and product initiatives. Zune anyone?

      What makes Mr. Softie a value trap is the way the stock looks cheap on paper. Microsoft (MSFT) trades at 10x trailing earnings and is laden with that aforementioned cash which it should seemingly be able to put to work in some shareholder friendly way. MSFT stock is also hated by guys like me, always a contrarian signal to buy a stock for some people.

      Folks buy stocks like Microsoft almost to spite traders. When I gently, or bombastically, try to guide people away from the stock, I invariably get a response to the effect of "I'm a long term investor, not a 'trader' like you." It's not uncommon for folks to cite Warren Buffett as a role model for their investment style. Of course this ignores the fact that Buffett and Bill Gates are long time friends, yet Buffett has never owned a share of Bill's company, but my saying so would be mean-spirited.

      Because I can do little more than scoff at MSFT stock, Breakout welcomed Eugene Profit, the founder of Profit Investment Management and a Microsoft shareholder. While conceding that a company trading at both 10x trailing and forward earnings may be something less than a growth business, Mr. Profit was kind enough to run through some possible catalysts which could potentially, and at long last, break Microsoft out of its decade-plus trading range. Here's what to watch for:

      Read More »from Microsoft Earnings: What to Watch
    • As the dust settles on Apple's (AAPL) bombshell of a quarter the question must be asked: Why bother with a technology investment strategy other than "Buy Apple on Dips"?

      To help find an answer Breakout welcomed David Garrity, Principal of GVA Research. Even while enjoying the afterglow of Apple, Garrity had other tech ideas on his mind. Here they are, submitted for your approval:

      Microsoft (MSFT): Mom always said "if you can't say something nice about someone don't say anything at all." Or at least someone's mom supposedly said it, but it wasn't mine. Garrity likes Microsoft, offering that the company's alliance with Nokia (NOK) and the Facebook/ Skype relationship show a company "fighting to maintain its relevance." Microsoft has lost that fight.

      EBay (EBAY): On the upside eBay convinced Microsoft to overpay for Skype. This would be an investment thesis were eBay a corporate leper or, even better, a starfish capable of getting Microsoft to overpay for its detachable parts until eBay was nothing but the torso of an online auction site. Alas, this is not the case.

      Intel (INTC): See "Microsoft"

      Read More »from 4 Tech Stocks to Watch that Aren’t Apple
    • As a realist Steve Wood has a hard time getting giddy about the near term prospects for global stock markets. The Chief Market Strategist for Russell Investments strikes a balance somewhere between "extremely guarded optimism" and "damning with faint praise" when telling me that he "likes equities versus fixed income... kind of a no-brainer in terms of valuation."

      It's not that Wood sees an equity tragedy on the horizon. "A worst-case global growth recession is off the table," as far as he's concerned. What keeps him less than sanguine is the absence of any particularly exciting recovery taking place. Blaming the Japanese tsunami for the Q2 soft-patch doesn't mean the economy is a coiled spring of growth. Wood is looking for a final growth figure of 2011 of around 2.5%, then expanding to 3.3% or a tick higher next year.

      Despite year-end targets for the major indexes of right around exactly where we are now, Wood says investors can find value if they're willing to "get into the weeds" and do a little research of their own. In a burst of relative optimism he notes that 91% of Americans are employed and their balance sheets stabilized after the crisis. He quite correctly observes that the U.S. consumer will simply not be denied and an improved balance sheet means the ability to increase spending again.

      Read More »from Bet on the American Consumer: Russell Strategist
    • If Hewlett Packard (HPQ) or Dell (DELL) dreamed of reporting a quarter as good as the one Apple (AAPL) posted last night, they would wake up and apologize to Steve Jobs.

      Here's what stood out:

      • Apple's Cash on Hand grew by 16% to $76.2 billion. The number works out to roughly $81 per share. Were they so inclined, Apple could write checks for Netflix (NFLX) and Ebay (EBAY) combined and still remain liquid.
      • Apple's revenue growth is actually accelerating.
      • The company beat EPS estimates by over 30% and revenue forecasts by 15%. These numbers speak ill of the people analyzing Apple but are jaw-dropping nonetheless.
      • The stock continues to perform yet somehow gets cheaper; trading at over 18x earnings yesterday and in the vicinity of a 15 P/E today.

      Apple had a good quarter and is a pretty impressive company is what I'm saying. Of course, as I noted 3 months ago, Apple always beats expectations. It's what the company does. That being the case Breakout welcomed David Garrity, a Principal with GVA Research to lay out what Apple has to do in order to continue its torrid pace.

      The Red Elephant in the room of Apple's growth plan is obviously China. To that end Apple has announced plans to pair with China Mobile (CHL) and their over 600mm customers to extend the reach of the iPhone. Asia Pacific is already 22% of Apple's revenues (up from 12% in 2010 Q2), so they aren't starting from scratch but obviously success in China is going to be critical. Said another way, Apple can only steal so much American business from PC makers and Research in Motion (RIMM), they need to blast off in China to keep posting the numbers to which Apple bulls have become accustomed.

      Read More »from Apple Destroys Estimates AND the Stock Is Still Cheap!

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