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    • If you wanted to pick a fight, or vigorous debate among stock players this summer tell them stock prices already reflect the horrific global headlines.

      Which is exactly what Bob Pavlik, Chief Market Strategist of Banyan Partners perhaps unwittingly did when he sat down with Breakout. "Bad news is already priced into the market," Bob fearlessly offered just prior to Tuesday's explosive rally.

      "People say 'what about Europe? What about Greece? What about Italy?" the strategist said, ticking a few items off the grizzly laundry list of headwinds. These may be unfolding global calamities but to market purists like Pavlik stocks have already looked past every one of them. The same goes for the ongoing debt-ceiling debate and just about any other known factor.

      If Pavlik's theme sounds familiar it should; this is more or less what Laszlo Birinyi said in a piece we published earlier this week. Even the bears will have to concede, or at least should concede, that stocks have handled seemingly horrible, negative news with relative aplomb. The fact of the matter is stocks are barely buckling, let alone breaking, despite the fusillade of negatives. You can attribute this to what you will, "government manipulation" being perhaps the most popular and difficult to refute theory. Alas, if you're short you continue to be wrong. Besides, the market has been brazenly propped up by the government since at least 2009 and shooting against it has been a lousy bet to date.

      Read More »from Mega-Cap Stock Picks for a Resilient Market
    • Seated before a panel of Parliamentary inquisitors looking for answers on how one of the United Kingdom's most popular tabloid newspapers conceived, created, and condoned an alleged decade-long campaign of hacking into people's cell phones to 'uncover news, billionaire News Corp (NWS) CEO Rupert Murdoch said it was "the most humbling day of his career."

      Minutes later, thanks to a security breach wider than the English Channel, the public's outrage over its privacy being invaded fomented itself in the form of a foamy cream pie, carried in the hands of a protester and presumably intended for the face of the humbled but high-value target.

      Perhaps metaphorically for the empire he built via brazen acquisitions, the 81-year-old media mogul didn't even flinch - though his young wife Wendi did - her sweeping overhand slap looking all the more out of place coming from a small pink jacket.

      Pure tabloid magic. Let the headline contest begin.

      Setting aside the seriousness of the inquiry for a moment, that brief Bart Simpson-esque prank has sadly had the inverse effect that it was intended to. Rather then denigrate, it has seemingly diluted and distracted us. A week, a month, a year from now I am certain only one sliver of Murdoch's historic testimony will be remembered.

      Regardless of the outcome of the current UK probe, and whether or not similar inquiries evolve in the U.S., a hefty toll has already been inflicted on the man and the company he loves and built. My colleague Dan Gross cites analysis leading him to believe there's a Murdoch discount and a Murdoch premium. News Corp is now worth only half what it would be if its various parts were tallied separately, and that the stock is trading essentially where it was 13 years ago.

      Read More »from Murdoch Saved by Bart Simpson Moment
    • From Goldman Sach's (GS) surprise earnings miss to Bank of America (BAC) posting a $9.1 billion quarterly loss, it has been a negative news cycle surrounding the Financial sector. But for Bob Pavlik, Chief Market Strategist at Banyan Partners, the case for owning the big money center banks follows the simple logic that it's not a question of if, but when, they will recover. "I am not smart enough to say when the beginning of the end is going to start, but I know it's going to come," he says.

      And when it does, he says, watch out.

      Right now, to most investors it feels like little more than headline risk, settlements, and set-asides from the beleaguered banks and it is reflected in the market with the Banks and Diversified Financial industry groups tied for last place so far this year with double-digit declines. "The news has been already priced into these things. The catalyst is going to be when we really start to see some improvement in the mortgage-related area, the housing stuff. Once we start to see the beginning of the end of this, then the stocks are going to start rising," says Pavlik.

      According to Pavlik, maybe another 6 months, maybe longer, and he even concedes that "the shorts" could make more money for a while. But what makes him feel secure is that "the Citigroups, the JPMorgans, the Bank of Americas, these are the leaders in their industry despite what is going on with the stock prices. The government has essentially told you these companies are not going to go out of business."

      Read More »from Buy the Big Banks Despite Weak Q2 Earnings: Pavlik
    • If you've heard of Laszlo Birinyi and like his work (as we do) but never actually paid to become a client, here's your chance to test drive the Westport, CT legend's stock picking prowess. Before the unveiling, you should know that Birinyi purposely tries not to change his picks every week based on the prevailing sentiment and says he's been advocating the five stocks all year. He says they were chosen to give investors some diversification, some play on energy and the economy, and some exposure to consumers. And now, the envelope please, I present to you, the Birinyi Basket.

      1) BP Prudhoe Bay Royalty Trust (BPT): Birinyi's rationale for owning this trust is as simple as "the 8% dividend, you get energy and you get 8%." Even though BPT is down 10% this year at a time when the Energy sector (XLE) is up by at least 10%, Birinyi is sticking with it. "The stock may not do a whole lot," he says, adding that he is "very comfortable clipping coupons, if you will, and not worrying about the underlying price."

      2) Ralph Lauren (RL): This play on high-end retail is in the basket in a Peter Lynch, buy-what-you -know sort of way. Birinyi says, "if you go in to a Ralph Lauren store in Manhattan you'll find out why they're doing well." He doesn't spend a lot of time trying to factor in "what the price of gas is going to do to retail sales." If Birinyi likes what he sees, he buys. And it's working, with shares of RL within a few dollars of an all-time high have gone from $40 to $140 in the past 2 years.

      Read More »from 5 Stock Picks From the Birinyi Basket

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