• You can be forgiven for confusing the ongoing debt ceiling debate with the 2011 debacle. Then as now, the debate points of contention were serious issues but the dialogue quickly descended into self-destructive inanity on both sides of the aisle.

    In August of '11 America gridlock led to the U.S. credit rating was downgraded and markets were plunged into temporary chaos. It proved to be a buying opportunity but in reality this time might be worse.

    According to Peter Schiff, CEO of Euro Pacific Capital and author of the book The Real Crash: America's Coming Bankruptcy, the best that can be said about our current situation is that we don't have to worry about another downgrade. The government made sure of that. "They already sued S&P (MHFI) for downgrading the U.S. last time," Schiff says, referring to a government lawsuit that Standard & Poor's claims is indirect punishment for taking down U.S. credit. "Nobody is going to downgrade the U.S. Treasury, no matter what."

    Not that it matters to Schiff. The foreign nations buying US debt recognize a bad deal when they see it. Once those customers realize that Treasury paper is the equivalent of junk regardless of the official rating the buying will dry up and disastrous endgame will begin.

    Count Schiff among those firmly believe the debt ceiling shouldn't be raised at any cost, even it means shutting down the government. Constantly raising the debt ceiling to, in effect, live beyond our means is the root of America's credit problem. Kicking the can down the road only makes the day of reckoning worse.

    Read More »from U.S. Is Broke, Can’t Afford to Raise the Debt Ceiling says Peter Schiff
  • Regardless of the puny sell-off taking place over the last few days the S&P500 (^GSPC) has gained 2.5% over the last month. At the same time the yield on the U.S. 10-year treasury (^TNX) moved from 2.8% to 2.65%. By the immutable laws of supply and demand that means investors in aggregate have been simultaneously lusting after equities and bonds.

    Pretending for a moment that the Federal Reserve isn't the incremental buyer of debt forcing yields artificially lower, investors should either have a preference for safety (driving yields lower) or risk (moving stocks higher). With bond traders caught flat-footed by the FOMC's decision not to taper last week, the question for investors is whether or not the move in bond yields is sustainable or just a blip.

    Count EagleBay Capital CEO J.C. Parets as one of the few traders who thinks yields are headed lower to stay. What Parets loves most about being a bond bull is that so many Wall Street traders are betting in the other direction. In the attached clip, Parets says bonds haven't been this loathed since 2011. Then, as now, the U.S. was facing a debt ceiling debate. When Standard & Poors had the audacity to downgrade America's credit it was supposed to increase borrowing costs. That's the whole point of credit ratings.

    Related: America's Downgrade: Two Years Later

    Instead bonds rallied 40% sending yields below 1.5%. Parets is looking for more of the same from bonds and a lot of pain for stocks. Noting that equities have taken back most of the post-FOMC pop, Parets says the top is in for now.

    Read More »from Bond Market Rally Is Just Getting Started
  • It's been a week since the Federal Reserve shocked the world by not moving to rein in (or taper) its bond buying program, but a growing number of people are refusing to let it go and move on. While stocks have reversed after a brief euphoric jump to record highs, the aggrieved parties now are largely regulators and advocates who argue the timing of this latest release and others wasn't fair.

    Specifically, reports that certain high-speed traders had access to the FOMC's market moving statement a millisecond (that's one 1/1000th of a second) early, has New York Attorney General Eric Schneiderman fuming, to the point where he's just launched a new whistleblower hotline to field anonymous tips in order to crack down on what he's dubbed "insider trading 2.0".

    This is not the first probe into the timing of sensitive data releases, but it is the latest, and perhaps the biggest, as some estimates show nearly a half-billion dollars of the very fastest money was able to get a jump on the merely fast. For what it's worth, it takes about 300 to 400 milliseconds to blink your eye.

    "To have that (information) even a millisecond ahead of others is, I think, totally unfair," says Mark Luschini, chief investment officer at Janney Capital Management, in the attached video. "It's not so much that the information is reaching some pocket of the world (eg trading desks in New York or Chicago) slower or quicker than another, it's the fact that somebody was able to trade in advance of others."

    There's a catch to all of this that no one really wants to talk about and that is, as often as not, the so-called "first trade" is wrong.

    Read More »from ‘Insider Trading 2.0′: The Battle Over Milliseconds
  • After several months of acrimonious debate Larry Summers removed his name as a potential replacement for Federal Reserve chairman Ben Bernanke earlier this month. With Summers stepping aside, Fed vice chair Janet Yellen regains her spot as the odds-on favorite to replace Bernanke should he step down early next year as is widely expected.

    Stocks initially responded positively the news, ostensibly because it is assumed Yellen will keep in place Bernanke's market-friendly quantitative easing program. Not everyone is as enthusiastic at the prospect of another inflation dove filling Bernanke's shoes.

    Peter Schiff, CEO of Euro Pacific Capital and author of The Real Crash: America's Coming Bankruptcy, thinks a Yellen appointment will spell disaster. He says Bernanke did Alan Greenspan the favor of replacing him as the worst Fed chair in history and Yellen is about to return the favor.

    Related: Bernanke's Policy Is 'Deliberately Deceptive,' Says Peter Schiff

    For savers, low interest rates mean less spending power because of inflation. Schiff worries that Yellen would push for negative interest rates; actively confiscating money out of savings accounts. Though the scenario seems farfetched the implications are mind bending.

    Read More »from Yellen Will Take the Fed in ‘Dangerous Direction,’ Says Schiff

Pagination

(2,719 Stories)

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