Now that we're at the tail-end of one of the more volatile, terrifying, and just plain weird years in financial markets (other than 2009), you'd be forgiven for slapping a stamp on 2011 and mailing it in until January. For those of you professionally required or obsessed with sticking around through the holidays, the objective is simple: Sift through the deafening racket and make some money.
On that note, my co-host Matt Nesto and I have run through what's working now and our market "tells" into the New Year. From my side the next move will be determined by the U.S. dollar's relationship to the Euro. I'd love to ignore the entire Eurozone folly, but it's simply unavoidable.
The fact is, U.S. economic data has been a tick better than expectations. This morning the National Retail Federation upped its holiday sales estimates by 1%. Supporting that, FedEx (FDX) reported fiscal Q2 earnings that beat estimates and said business is good.
Much more importantly to Americans, jobless claims for the week came in at 366,000, much better than the prior week, and better than expectations. You can argue the validity of the data, but the fact remains it's incrementally positive.
Sadly, none of it matters to traders. The latest news from Europe trumps the data, and the easiest way to "see" developments from across the pond is by looking at how many bucks it takes to buy a euro. When the euro is weak it's generally a sign that Europe has managed to screw something up again, exacerbating U.S. woes. Right now it costs $1.30 to buy a single euro. If that number drops into the $1.20's before year-end, U.S. stocks simply will not rally.Read More »from Waiting for a Year-End Rally? Watch the Dollar to Survive the Holidays