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    • Two guys, two views, a few minutes...GO!

      Matt Nesto started the week noting that GDP estimates for Q2 are being dropped all over the Street, housing data remain tragic and unemployment is horrible. With the flood of data coming this week, most of it expected to be uninspiring at best, Nesto is worried about the reaction. He's not so much concerned in terms of stocks, which will move wherever the animal spirits shall take them. What concerns the big man is Washington's tendency to follow the policy of WWI General "Black Jack" Pershing, who famously said doing something was always superior to inaction.

      Black Jack's advice may be useful in a fist fight but it's lousy for an economy. In addressing the Great Recession thus far, DC has done everything except stand still and allow the correction to run its course. While Nesto is riding his "sell-in-May" theme to the bitter end of the month, the truth is all we've really done is shuffle some money from growth to defensive. The tape looks like it's going to finish down just a couple percent in May; a sector rotation does not a correction make.

      Read More »from Dos Hombres: A Focus on Dismal Data
    • The greatest investors are those who see something before others do. And just as many of us have dropped the emerging markets for opportunities on more familiar shores, Tactical Allocation Group's Paul Simon thinks he's having one of those visionary moments.

      "The other part of the (emerging markets) story that's not well known is that there's more trade with each other and amongst themselves than with the developed world," Simon says. "So their dependence on the U.S., Europe, Japan is not as great as a lot of investors think."

      Read More »from Emerging Markets Less Dependent on Us Than You Think: Strategist
    • Tuesday’s Stocks to Watch, Analyst Actions and Trading Topics

      The short trading week on Wall Street doesn't mean there's any shortage of news for traders and investors to get through, and we've got some familiar themes to cover.

      Let's start with Greece. New week, new story, new worries. Or hopes. In other words, the roller coaster continues. This time the news appears to be on the good side, with indications that a deal to help the country avoid default may be near. That was helping stocks out in the U.S. But there's still plenty of anxiety about the country and the rest of Europe, and that reality will no doubt continue to play out in the markets as long as there's any uncertainty.

      In the states, economic news was heavily influencing the conversation, and not necessarily in a good way. The S&P/Case-Shiller housing index was dreadful, meaning the home slump that became painfully obvious in the 2007-08 period continues to not only drag on, but show at least some signs of actually worsening. Speaking of worsening, Americans aren't feeling terribly optimistic aboout the overall economy these days, according to the latest survey of consumer attitudes.

      Maybe we should just go back to the start of that three-day weekend.

      ON THE BLOGS

      * The Risk of Political Unrest Increases in Europe - Pragmatic Capitalism

      * Greece Bailout Postpones the Inevitable - Glen Bradford, via Seeking Alpha

      * A New Latin American Powerhouse Region - The Reformed Broker, via StockTwits

      * It's Official: Housing Double Dip Is Here - The Big Picture

      * Another Hangover - Seabreeze Partners

      FROM TWITTER

      * LaMonicaBuzz by ritholtz - One of the euro stocks up big today is National Bank of Greece. $NBG surges 11% pre-market -- albeit from just $1.30 a share to $1.44. Opa?

      * optionmonster - Still can't believe Goldman Sachs lost nearly all Libya's $1.3 billion in 9 equity trades / 1 currency transaction. http://on.wsj.com/llL7qW

      * tradefast - DJ says china's yuan would rise ~60% without intervention (this would put an abrupt end to china's inflation problem)

      * BloombergFX by BloombergNews - Greek aid package in June? The euro seems to think so: http://bloom.bg/klEHIq

      IN THE HEADLINES

      * Yield Drop Finds Traders Scrambling to Reverse Bets - WSJ

      * Beware the Hype in China's Story - WSJ

      * Will the Egypt Stock Market Rally Continue? - CNBC

      Read More »from Tuesday’s Stocks to Watch, Analyst Actions and Trading Topics
    • Whether or not you caught the "Sell in May/Rotate to Defensives" trade this month, the good news is, you're not too late. With stocks paring losses these past three days, the long-awaited correction is looking a little thin now that we're down less than 3 percent for the month. And that's just fine with Paul Simon, chief investment officer of the Tactical Allocation Group, because he thinks there's more to come.

      "It's time to take some money off the table," he says. "You'd be wise to look for a better entry point."

      His concerns are not unique, but he says the cumulative weight of weaker economic data, sluggish housing, tepid auto sales and the overhang of QE2 ending creates "heightened uncertainty" and that justifies sticking with a now-crowded move towards defensive sectors such as health care/biotech (BBH), consumer staples (XLP), utilities (XLU), and food, beverage & tobacco (PBJ).

      "All of the structural problems are still in place," Simon warns. "Can the economy really stand on

      Read More »from Keep Raising Cash, Better Entry Points Ahead, Strategist Says

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