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    • Unless the debt ceiling is raised the U.S. will run out of cash sometime between February 15th and the middle of March. If that fuzzy deadline doesn't make you tremble, you're not alone. The stock market doesn't seem to care much either. Less than three weeks into the year stocks are up more than 3% on the heels of a very strong 2012.

      If the fiscal cliff didn't matter to stocks and the August 2011 debt ceiling debacle was just a buying opportunity, the question for investors is whether or not the Next Big Government Crisis is a reason to adjust their portfolios.

      Hugh Johnson of Johnson Advisors says the debate itself, along with the potential for spending cuts deep enough to cut economic growth, are reasons for concern. In the context of what he thinks will be 1 - 2% growth, we could easily edge into a recession in Q1 and the back half of the year. The start of a recession is typically not a good environment for stocks.

      Johnson says the smart play for traders going into the heart of the debate next month is to be on the short side of the market. For those less inclined to jump in and out of the tape, Johnson suggests dragging their feet on buying stocks unless or until stocks pullback around 10%.

      Read More »from Debt Ceiling Theatrics Could Spark 10% Sell-Off
    • There's no doubt about it, the Financials (XLF) are the darlings of the market, having easily outpaced all nine other sectors on a 1, 3, 6, and 12 month basis. For some, that might be a warning sign that this 80-stock basket of lenders, insurers, REITs, asset managers and investment banks could be getting a little ahead of itself. If you add in today's mixed earnings results which saw Goldman Sachs (GS) nearly tripling profits and easily topping expectations but JPMorgan Chase (JPM) clearing the bar thanks in part to a $900 million reduction in loss reserves, and the outlook for the group as a whole starts to get a little muddled. And then there's the fast-approaching debt ceiling showdown, and the dilemma starts to look worse given the sector's unique vulnerabilities.

      "Financials are the most levered to the economy and anything that threatens the economy is certainly going to effect these stocks in the short-term," says bank analyst Anton Schutz, president and CIO of Mendon Capital. Even so, he plans to ''take advantage of the choppiness" in the coming weeks and look past the short-term turbulence.

      In the attached video Schutz explains that, for a number of reasons, he is much more confident in long term outlook, pointing out that the sector is valued at "absurdly low multiples."

      Still, there are concerns and risks surrounding interest rates, housing, and regulation, the latter of which Schutz describes as still being "incredibly heavy and very costly." But when you eliminate or simply ease that regulatory burden, he and many other bank investors see great opportunity.

      Read More »from A Choppy Opportunity to Buy Banks
    • Remember green shoots? Those optimistic anecdotes that were flooding the market in 2008 and 2009 concerning every glimmer of hope that the worst recession in 75 years was ending, or at the very least stabilizing?

      While those little sprouts ended up getting strangled by relentlessly high unemployment and stubbornly slow growth, the stock market has never really looked back and is set to mark its fourth anniversary, albeit at a time of heightened worry ahead of the fiscal cliff follow up fights I like to call the February follies.

      And yet, through this fog of fear, Ryan Detrick, sr. technical strategist at Schaeffer's Investment Research is looking for another 15% this year and is taking comfort in the strength of small caps.

      "The small cap leadership is a good sign," Detrick says of their new high and 10-year outperformance. "That's an indicator that potentially sometime later this year, blue chips and the Dow Jones very well might also breakout to new highs."

      Read More »from Talking Technicals: The Path to 1,650 for S&P 500
    • Taking a cue from vintage Apple (AAPL), Facebook (FB) held a hyped up event today, though the results may not have been as exciting as many expected. The social media king pins announced a new navigation feature called "Graph Search" - a product that allows users to enter queries on Facebook and get answers in real time.

      Co-founder and CEO Mark Zuckerberg says Graph Search is the third pillar of Facebook, complementing News Feed and Timeline. Graph Search will allow users to ask real time questions to find friends and information within the Facebook universe.

      As an example, the search "find friends of friends who live in New York and went to Stanford" would come back with anyone who fit the bill, provided that information had been cleared to share by the user.

      "It's a way to dive into the vast Facebook database with all the personal information of the billion people who use it and find answers to your questions about people," says Steven Levy, senior writer at WIRED responsible for comprehensive coverage of Graph Search.

      All of which sounds cool at first blush. After the initial glow fades Graph Search also seems like exactly the type of intrusion that Facebook critics abhor. The company says users can opt out of the search results, but to what extent and precisely how that works remains to be seen.

      Read More »from Facebook Flop: Big Reveal Falls Flat

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