Bull Market or Bust?

As the saying goes, 95% of traders don't know which direction the market will go, the other 5% don't know that they don't know.

I���ve been losing money these past weeks��� but I���m buying more the more they fall. I think financials for instance, are greatly undervalued at this point. I���m not a trader and I���m horrible at timing the market, but I seem to be good at picking undervalued companies that move on my direction after a few months. USB, WFC, STI, BAC, C��� they are all cheap. Even if basel 3 is applied to them, they are oversold.

Tech sector seems to be in a similar situation, NVDA, APPL, GOOG, ARMH, AKAM, INTC, MSFT��� it���s just wonderful time to pick them up. Apple might surprise to the down side which would push all of them down but the truth is that mobile devices are selling like ice cream on summer and people don���t realize that not only Apple manufactures those devices. If and when iphone5 is announced, wait for an Apple bounce. Also any mobile device selling means ARMH should get income. Any new tegra2 or tegra3 chip selling means NVDA. Increase on mobile is always good for GOOG, and any news on Intel and its new mobile chip will push its stock up. Akamai should move higher, last time I���ve checked we are not reducing our internet usage. And Microsoft is the king of undervalued, even with no growth, they just need to release anything that produces a bit of income to move that stock up. Windows for ARM chips could be a catalyst.

And then don��t get me started on BRK. It has never been this undervalued as long as I can remember.

So sleep tight and buy cheap while you can. Just don���t put money you are going to need in the short term into this. I leave the market timing to brighter minds.

(and I wish yahoo stopped giving me Internal Server Errors 10 times on a roll for every comment I post! :/

If all the so-called "experts" would shut up and quit spewing their "Negative Jargon" we might just see a little more confidence in our system and an improvement in the economy. It would also help if our "Know It All" government would get out of the way.

I've been taking money off the table since February and accelerated that as the April high hit. I don't know where this market is going but I don't being in a complete yo-yo as I don't day trade. These markets are so manipulated by the politicians. The FED is nothing more than a political machine. I'm 54 and retired. I have a third of money in the market, a third in precious metals, mainly gold. and the rest in cash. I don't trust anybody..... The FED, Congress and Obama, are all puppets on a string of the Big Boyz.

I think that the rest of that "STIMULUS" money is being used to keep this Market pumped up.
That's what I think.

Although I've read a lot of negative comments lately which admittedly are depressing, I believe most of these comments are either coming from traders who have left the market so can have no further influence on it or are from short-sellers trying to make a buck from the slide. The rest of us still in there may have doubts but we are still in there and it may take a lot more to shift us than what we have heard so far. Maybe a major earthquake in San Francisco would do it, who knows. Now there's a cheerful thought!

Bring back the Uptick Rule, period.

As always, where the market will go is a tantalizing topic debated by most so-called "experts". Yet, when you look into the "experts" accuracy in predicting the market you find out that "experts" most often get it wrong. The rate of error is even bigger when it comes to predicting big events. This terrible observation is however completely normal. Not that markets are efficient or any @#$% like that but the human ability to predict the future is extremely limited. So if you want to make money in the market, you better be prepared to have some hard times. If you want to time the market, whether you're an expert or not, you will end up losing more than you'll make. The pleasure of getting it right once will outweigh by far the pain of getting it wrong psychologically, but financially it will destroy you.

I don't get how the news being much worse then the market reaction is really a good sign.

When the earnings season starts in July, I think the market will go up.
When the Middle East turmoil calms down and the economy is obviously getting better as opposed to being debateable; I think gold will go down. If panic sets in it could crash and burn.

Who cares, collect my dividends and enjoy life!!!

The repubs will not lift the debt ceiling and that will be a disaster. Then Greece will default. These things are happening this summer.

I like to higlight MACAU IS IN HONG KONG AND SAND IS IIN SINGAPORE.Which direction is the stock goes every 5% up and there goes another 10% down.,with the US unemployment is high we are not going anywhere better. So hold and with for the burst.

Markets post great gains for the first two or so years after a bear bottom. After that - the gains are smaller and the risks greater. If you're nimble and willing to spend the time - I say go for it.... but be ready to sell. If you think buy and hold is the way to go... then this is as good as time as any to load up... but then, why do you have money on the sidelines? If you're really "buy and hold" then you're already fully loaded. What's that leave ? Traders. Jack be nimble, or get cut to the quick.

When do they start to talk about the bull market in the military-industrial complex. Aren't those businesses also in a bubble?

Agree....
Paul Schatz of Heritage Capital as an example. On the one hand he cites runaway pessimism as the core case of a bullish thesis that's calling for a near-term rally back to, or above, the previous high of May 2nd, followed by a bigger sell-off in the third quarter.

After 1220 S&P next month, mini bull phase 1430, and shortly after a complete collapse to 770 by mid December.

I'm convinced that what analysts actually do, is look for data to support their preconceptions. Trying to predict what the market will do in 3 months is silly. It *is* possible to determine whether particular investments are offering good risk adjusted returns, and if you stick to that approach, you're more likely to make money than lose it on average, but that's about the best you can do.

I would like to see these analysts identify particular investments with good risk adjusted returns rather than casting chicken bones to try discern the future.

Me, I'm buying right now LVS - Las Vegas (as we know it...gone bust), BUT MACAU in Singapore is going full blast w/high rollers LVS is low now, I expect it to triple as people w/money realize no kids, no drinking,no partying, jus plain good odds, safe, beautiful...been there going back. I again think this is a great buy!