Wed, May 23, 2012, 1:10 AM EDT - U.S. Markets open in 8 hrs 20 mins

Economic Rebound “Not Happening” in 2011: Achuthan

As the financial world emitted a collective groan when the June jobs data crossed the wires this morning, Lakshman Achuthan was calm, unmoved and not surprised. In fact, the co-founder of the Economic Cycle Research Institute says he's seen it coming for months.

"The economy is down-shifting...you can see in the jobs number that the sand is shifting," he says.

As a self-described business cycle expert, Achutan's analysis of data and leading indicators "is able to see through the noise" and allows him to make macro calls on the growth cycle. In fact just two months ago on our sister program The Daily Ticker he said "clearly, unambiguously we will see a global industrial slowdown this summer."

With so much riding on - and priced into - an economic and earnings rebound in the second-half of the year, Achutan not only pours water on that, but ups the ante by saying he cannot rule out slumping into another recession in 2012. "You have a 4/10ths rise in the unemployment rate over the last 3 months. That doesn't happen in an economy that is reviving or firming or gaining steam," he explains.

Further, Achutan says "It's a growth rate slowdown and that's what the market really cares about. Recessions and recoveries, that's old news."

So assume for a minute that Achutan is right (again) and that the growth rate just stumbles along at 1-2%, jobs growth doesn't materialize and the various Purchasing Managers Indexes stall. Achutan says that will have a devastating effect on earnings and stocks. "Profit growth is pro-cyclical, meaning it can't disconnect from the economy" he explains, adding that "you'll have profits. But if you're interested in if they're getting better or worse, it's going to be really tough for them to get better on a sustained basis in a growth rate cycle slowdown."

"I'd be surprised if the market really took off on a sustained basis against what the growth rate of the economy is," he says. "It's not transitory."

What do you think? Is this still just a "soft patch" or something more sinister?

Give us your feedback and comments below.

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106 comments

  • gary wickmiller  •  10 months ago
    Brazo...what he is saying the free ride is over for a while. no 25% ...50% up in the next year
    this guy has it right. wait till the soldiers come home to no jobs. invest in basic food stuffs.
    • maicaray 10 months ago
      nO PROBLEM The gubmit will take care of them like everything else. On the backs of the Middle Class.
    • So True 10 months ago
      Middle class backs are tired and in debt so it will be funny money from the Fed and China.
    • 4gotten 10 months ago
      The middle class is disappearing at an alarming rate. We've lost jobs and are trying to find work with hundreds of people in line for 10 job openings. And, who knows how long those jobs will last before being cut. It's getting very scary, almost like one of those Hollywood disaster movies.
  • Howard  •  10 months ago
    This guy is absolutely correct. Why do so many agree? Because we see it too, but nobody has the guts to admit it in the general media. I think the mantra is, just keep telling people things are good so they will keep spending. If they keep spending, then things will surely end up good. We live in an economic time where bad is spun as good, good is spun as great! The economy can't be fixed with a marketing campaign on CNBC. This economy is stalled and failing.
  • Jeff  •  10 months ago
    There's much talk about national security. We gave it away by allowing so much manufacturing infrastructure to disappear. More thought and planning should have gone on other than allowing multi-national corporations to make a fast buck by moving to low labor cost countries. Moving to low labor cost countries for quick profit was a ���no-brainer��� (didn���t take a Harvard MBA) once the barriers were removed. However, this is not good for the long term for the company making the move and especially for the U.S. economy.
    Many important components and materials are not being made or designed in the U.S. anymore. You can start with small electronic components, switches, etc that are used in so many places. There's no infrastructure (suppliers, relationships, design, productions, etc) in the U.S. as there once was. It takes along time to develop this infrastructure.
    One may argue that the U.S. has depended on free market capitalism and ���creative destruction��� of industries and products. Examples include horses to steam and internal combustion, gas light to electric light and mechanical adding machines to high speed computers. However, there may be hard limits to these changes and technological progress may be slowing and for the foreseeable future. If the current course continues the primary destruction may be the U.S. economy and way of life for the non-elite classes.
    • 4gotten 10 months ago
      You are so right. We basically gave away the engine (manufacturing, inventing, etc) that drove our economy. We went from being the world's producer to being the world's consumer.
    • Sergio 10 months ago
      Wrong and wrong, As an economy develops they let go lower value activities and embrace higher value activities thats why all that manufacturing business you just mentioned has gone abroad. An economy need 3 thing to be successful 1: use the resources available, in the case of the developing world cheap labour in our case skilled labour (knwoledge and technology), 2. take on high value activities emerging countries are taking on the industries that are not longer attractive for us but we are taking on better industries such as internet services and internet business models, nano technology, bio engineering etc which produce higher incomes for our nation. 3 adaptability to the new market conditions, emerging markets adapted to produce cheap goods with their abudance of cheap labour but we are adapating by producing the technology needed to do so and also by creating new technologies that will create new markets which are more profitable. It is easy for developing countries to dominate lower value manufacturing as they only need to copy existing technology which was created by us decades ago but its a completely different story to compete to us in high labour activities as they do not have the skilled labour, resources and technology to do so.
    • Flyer1 10 months ago
      Whatever.
      We have systemic unemployment due to severe wealth unbalance. How are we going to fix that? Unless we Unionize, we aren't. The unemployed need to look for work in another country. This is no longer the land of oppurtunity.
      Do not look for the Plutocatric/Capitalistic Government to come to the rescue either. They are too busy taking care of the Corporations. They are about to default on your Social Security and Medicare benefits. Who knows what next they will end, food stamps, education, and everything else when we enter third world mode.
  • BLOODY BEACH WATER  •  10 months ago
    545 People vs 300 Million People
    -By Charlie Reese
    Politicians are the only people in the world who create problems and then campaign against them.
    Have you ever wondered, if both the Democrats and the Republicans are against deficits, WHY do we have deficits?
    Have you ever wondered, if all the politicians are against inflation and high taxes, WHY do we have inflation and high taxes?
    You and I don't propose a federal budget. The President does.
    You and I don't have the Constitutional authority to vote on appropriations. The House of Representatives does.
    You and I don't write the tax code, Congress does.
    You and I don't set fiscal policy, Congress does.
    You and I don't control monetary policy, the Federal Reserve Bank does.
    One hundred senators, 435 congressmen, one President, and nine Supreme Court justices equates to 545 human beings out of the 300 million are directly, legally, morally, and individually responsible for the domestic problems that plague this country.
    I excluded the members of the Federal Reserve Board because that problem was created by the Congress. In 1913, Congress delegated its Constitutional duty to provide a sound currency to a federally chartered, but private, central bank.
    I excluded all the special interests and lobbyists for a sound reason. They have no legal authority. They have no ability to coerce a senator, a congressman, or a President to do one cotton-picking thing. I don't care if they offer a politician $1 million dollars in cash. The politician has the power to accept or reject it. No matter what the lobbyist promises, it is the legislator's responsibility to determine how he votes.
    Those 545 human beings spend much of their energy convincing you that what they did is not their fault. They cooperate in this common con regardless of party.
    What separates a politician from a normal human being is an excessive amount of gall. No normal human being would have the gall of a Speaker, who stood up and criticized the President for creating deficits. The President can only propose a budget. He cannot force the Congress to accept it.
    The Constitution, which is the supreme law of the land, gives sole responsibility to the House of Representatives for originating and approving appropriations and taxes. Who is the speaker of the House? John Boehner. He is the leader of the majority party. He and fellow House members, not the President, can approve any budget they want. If the President vetoes it, they can pass it over his veto if they agree to.
    It seems inconceivable to me that a nation of 300 million cannot replace 545 people who stand convicted -- by present facts -- of incompetence and irresponsibility. I can't think of a single domestic problem that is not traceable directly to those 545 people. When you fully grasp the plain truth that 545 people exercise the power of the federal government, then it must follow that what exists is what they want to exist.
    If the tax code is unfair, it's because they want it unfair.
    If the budget is in the red, it's because they want it in the red.
    If the Army & Marines are in Iraq and Afghanistan it's because they want them in Iraq and Afghanistan ...
    If they do not receive social security but are on an elite retirement plan not available to the people, it's because they want it that way.
    There are no insoluble government problems.
    Do not let these 545 people shift the blame to bureaucrats, whom they hire and whose jobs they can abolish; to lobbyists, whose gifts and advice they can reject; to regulators, to whom they give the power to regulate and from whom they can take this power. Above all, do not let them con you into the belief that there exists disembodied mystical forces like "the economy," "inflation," or "politics" that prevent them from doing what they take an oath to do.
    Those 545 people, and they alone, are responsible.
    They, and they alone, should be held accountable by the people who are their bosses.
  • Patriot Alice  •  10 months ago
    In the 70���s I was making about $10 an hour as a computer operator, with a family. Unionized employees at a ship building company in the USA were making $23+ an hour went on strike demanding more���.I remember thinking,���I wouldn���t go on strike if I were making $20+ an hour, I���d be grateful���..The ship building company shut down, and moved overseas���GET IT? 40 years later you still wondering why companies leave? I don���t blame them..

    The middle class, has wiped out the middle class by being too greedy.
    • John 10 months ago
      Well said. You are so right. Its a dog eat dog world, and the rest of the world is eating the US's lunch, and will continue to do so as long as the cost of producing in the US is not competitive. Do people really think they are "entitled" to earn more in the US for doing the same job as someone else will do for less??? Globalization and millions of new chinese workers entering the labor foce have simply displaced American jobs. Its that simple and it just happened to occur in OUR lifetime. What is most shocking to me is the PACE in which this transformation is occuring, and how our citizens and government are NOT seeing it, getting it, or making changes to adapt to it, or even fight it. There are going to be more and more people out of work. And when the government finally realizes it cant continue to spend money it doesnt have, soon governments payrolls will also fall, putting even more people out of work. Unless we adapt, the future is not looking very bright for the next generations of Americans.
    • Mike 10 months ago
      Yeah you look great saying that from atop your Japanese bike errrr,,uh soap box.
    • DAVE 10 months ago
      You're only half right. The bankers destroyed home values which for the middle class is their retirement savings, kids college fund, and emergency money. No need to be envious of those union pensions anymore, bad management and Wall Street wiped them out. The middle class is on the verge of being destroyed. If you were poor, that's what you still are today. If you are wealthy, you had a minor set back at the start of the recession but are now making money hand over fist again.
  • Donald Smith  •  10 months ago
    This guy knows what he's talking about. Two thumbs up.
    • RC 10 months ago
      Not really rocket science.
    • Macke 10 months ago
      There are those of us who don't think economics is a science at all. But explaining it. Is certainly an art. This guy's an artiste'.

      - macke
    • Donald Smith 10 months ago
      i and i have been following this guy for several years and he's been consistently right on as far as cycles. he's no better with black swans than anyone else, but all the real prophets get cruicified. i and i made the mistake of buying a little book he wrote, which didn't tell me anything. i and i wish he would come out with a serious book on cycles, but magicians don't tell their tricks of the trade.
  • imataxslave  •  10 months ago
    Wow. Someone that calls it like it is and explains a calculus concept in a pedestrian fashion...knowing things like "growth rate slowdown means profits grow but slower" puts certainty out there far easier than cheer leading profits through growth with no insight other than the standard verbiage used to sell their funds or policies...
  • Rock Solid Truth  •  10 months ago
    Harry Dent:
    Housing can't recover with the lowest prices and lowest interest in decades.....WHY?
    No buyers.
    Loss of purchasing power.
    Deflation
    Deleveraging
    Complete implosion of househoold wealth.
    AGING POPULATION.......SAVING.
    No Spending.
    Inflation can't take hold because there is no purchasing power.

    Yeah we have to pay the food and gas inflation....but that means sales elsewhere will decrease.
    During deflation in a zero sum game, the commodities bubble always pops and prices come down.

    The Cntrsal banks dealt with the liquidity issue and solved the bank run from that crisis.
    Now they have to deal with the solvency part of the cycle and prevent a bank run from that.

    Once the first series of bondholders get a nice haircut......the entire system will implode.

    There is no mass consumer spending to lift us out of the deflationary cycle.....so everyone's solvency.....countries, states, corporations, and individuals.......all of it is stuck in the deflationary cycle.

    Now if everyone just said the heck with saving, the heck with retiring, let's spend it all now, let it ride...... Las Vegas baby !!!!!.....we might see some growth....otherwise the only growth will be on paper.......and therefore the real time life support livelihood economy is destroyed in the process.
  • OlRailBird  •  10 months ago
    He's right. Recovery ain't happening, ever.

    Pump and dump is a cycle, too.

    Keep listening to these idiots, $23.7T was just a warm-up. Invest in lead bricks because usury kills.
  • CadburyH  •  10 months ago
    Good explanation. One of the brighter guests I've seen on Breakout. This guy gets it..
  • JL Henry  •  10 months ago
    I think he needs to address congress, the senate and the white house. What we really need right now is for the EPA to roll out more regulation. While we are at it, all Obama's federal regulators should institute broad and sweeping regulation so we can choke the last gasp out of the economy. And the best yet, let's not reach a deficit plan before August 2nd. Hello...
  • The Answer is 42  •  10 months ago
    We are at the tail end of two bad things. Outsourcing is reaching maximum (which means permanent unemployment for a lot of people in the US) and the Federal Deficit is now over the inflection point and is going catastrophic (i.e. exponential). I don't see a solution here. We see the iceberg but we can't steer away in time...
  • anarchist  •  10 months ago
    This guy must be Nostradamus's long lost protege. There can be no recovery until President Green Shoots is gone. Hunker down. It is going to be a tough 18 months.
  • crymeariver  •  10 months ago
    I saw this coming my last time back home in April! After the 99er's started coming off, i use the seat wait at restaurants. What took 1-1.5 hours wait for a table , many times i could walk up and be seated and many tables we empty. Going to get worse!
  • William M  •  10 months ago
    We had a 30 year party of credit bubble. Maybe 35, if you include the inflationary mid-70s. Hundreds of new government spending programs. Wars. Police actions abroad. Fueling the flames of both sides of Israel and Muslim.

    The chickens have come home to roost, and they will be home for decades before this mess improves.

    The painful cure is severe downsizing of government, including severe cuts in government spending year by year. A temporary increase in income taxes on everybody, including the 47% who currently do not pay based on their income. A flat 20% tax rate on all and 10% per year cuts in government spending. Then tackle the unfunded liabilities such as social security and medicare. It will take decades to cure.

    There won't be a growth economy for decades until the debt is taken care of and people can feel safe to marry, have kids, and stay in one community for decades.
  • A Yahoo! user  •  10 months ago
    "You don't want to slash spending and you don't want to raise taxes"????? Unless the US Treasury wants to revisit the debt ceiling in five months (assuming we get past this one) something has got to give. Its time to do exactly that. Eliminate tax breaks and loopholes to increase revenue without actually increasing the overall tax rate. Slash spending on animal psych experiments and other pork. Start investing in exploration of resources and technologies to expand the labour market.
  • fast mario  •  10 months ago
    Looks like instead of "Hope and Change", Obama has brought us "Agony and Despair"!
  • wiser  •  10 months ago
    Do you care about Greece? The world doesn't care about America or what you think you need!
  • Jollyroger  •  10 months ago
    So why are Obama's programs not working, he said that they were needed but they haven't done a thing except for putting the country deeper into debt. By the way he was talking a year ago you'd think there would be tons of jobs in "green" industries by now, especially since he gave them so much money. Now we are no better off, and have less money now and in the future.

    I guess one good thing is most of the union workers are still working and making good money, thanks to Obama spending tax dollars on paying them back for their votes.

    Maybe it's time the government, regardless of who controls it, get out of the economy. The free market works best with absolutely no government intervention.
  • Al V  •  10 months ago
    Personally, I think this is simply our Governments way of forcing us to become resigned to a totalitarian system as they have designed it. They are the ones allowing the destruction of our country, the invasion of our country, and they are doing nothing to stop it! I think it's past time for the LEGAL citizens to abolish this mockery of a Government and follow the Founding Father's wishes as put out in the Constitution and the Declaration of Independence. Anything less is suicide for our country.

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