Will the Economy Recover Regardless of Election Outcome?
Democrats are kicking off their national convention in Charlotte, North Carolina today, and with the Republican version in the rearview it's safe to say we have entered the very heart of election season. But does it even matter? Roger Altman, former U.S. deputy Treasury secretary, says that when it comes to the country's economy it may not. In an op-ed piece in today's Financial Times, Altman cites five factors that could result in an economic surge over the next four years. None of them directly depend on President Obama or Mitt Romney to lead the way.
Breakout welcomed Ed Mills, financial policy analyst at FBR Capital Markets, to offer his take. "Leadership absolutely does matter," he contends but adds that part of the reason President Obama wants another four years has to do with the "thought that Romney could possibly get credit for the policies that [Obama] put in place to get us to this point."
Mills points out that in his convention speech, Mitt Romney promised to add 12 million jobs in his first term. The Democrats would argue, he says, that 12 million jobs is exactly what you get if you stay the course with President Obama's policy.
"The core thesis of the Obama reelection," says Mills, "is that 'you might not like how things are today, but they are much better than when I took office, and just wait, if you stay this course…I will bring us through this.'" Democrats argue that if Mitt Romney is allowed to take credit, the spoils of economic recovery will largely go to "the 1%" instead of middle class Americans.
If economic recovery is a foregone conclusion, then the next question becomes whether or not the 2012 election leads to a slam-dunk in 2016 for the party in power. Mills points out that it is far too early for such handicapping, especially with the 2012 election still very much a "toss-up," but he admits that the thought of a President Mitt Romney succeeding on Obama policies has "re-ignited the intensity within [the President], and he is trying to ensure that he gets credit for this and trying to set it up for Democrats in 2016 as well."
Will the U.S. economy rebound regardless of who wins in November? Will the winning party have an easy road in 2016? Let us know on our Facebook page.
