Just when you thought speculation surrounding Tuesday's Republican primary in Florida and Sunday's Superbowl couldn't be outdone, the financial scribes of the world are in a fever over a rumored S-1 filling.
"An S-1 filing?" you ask.
Exactly. Since when did we start caring about those so much? The answer becomes crystal clear in a single world: FACEBOOK.
The Wall Street Journal was first to report late last Friday that Facebook could file its initial paperwork as soon as this Wednesday. While this purported IPO registration may shed some light on the workings and financials of the world's most popular social media site, it will be far from definitive and could end up raising as many questions as it answers.
Until the big reveal, we're left to speculate how big Facebook's IPO might be ($75-$100 billion), on how much revenue it might post for this year, and what exchange and ticker symbol it might use. "FB" on the NYSE is the consensus now; note Ford won't bow to Facebook's implied greatness hand over its coveted 1-letter ticker.
"Everyone is getting all giddy," Macke says in the attached video clip, before urging calm and pointing out the far more utilitarian contents that are found in an S1 filing. "The public wants to know, how can I get these shares? This isn't going to tell you that, but will tell you what's going on inside."
Even if Facebook does file its S1 mid-week, history offers little guidance in terms of when we might expect an actual IPO, as market conditions could see it happening within a month or delays for over a year.
Regardless, there is reason to be interested in investing in a website that does business with "1/7th of the planet" as Macke puts it, but ultimately the case for or against buying shares should be based on whether they can develop new ways to monetize its massive, non-paying user base.
Legendary investor Jim Rogers is already on the record saying "no thanks" to Facebook, whereas bankers and 500 other accredited insiders are already in and are valuing their restricted shares at anywhere from $27 to $31.15 each.
"Facebook can't be 20-times sales forever," Macke points out. "They gotta figure out a way to monetize these eyeballs... without getting in my face."
What do you think? Is Facebook fever legitimate or are we watching a bubble form right before our eyes?
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