It's been a great month, but a bad year that's about to get worse.
That's the short version of the outlook from Elliott Wave International's chief market analyst Steve Hochberg, who thinks any b0unce in gold will prove to be short-lived.
"The one thing we can say is that gold's bear market is not over yet," he says in the attached video, confidently predicting the precious metal's continued demise.
"We're two years into (gold's) bear market," he explains. "I think gold is setting itself up for another leg down in this ongoing bear market to correct the prior rally we had from the 1999 low."
As he sees it, the extreme pessimism that took gold to nearly a three-year low in late June is not done yet, and admits that he would "not be surprised to see gold under $1,000 sometime in the next year or two."
Similarly, he says silver is also in a ''true bear market" and predicts that the past month of dollar weakness which has allowed commodities a bit of breathing room is, itself, about to reverse and ''rally significantly."
"I think in a deflationary environment, which is the background we think we are heading in to, the dollar should do well," he says. "The reason is because there's so much debt denominated in dollars and people need dollars to pay their debts."
- Commodity Markets