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Gold, Oil & the Dollar: Correlation Breakdown Is Concerning Says Yamada

Over her multi-decade legendary career, technical analyst Louise Yamada has seen all kinds of markets and probably analyzed more than a million charts. For Macke to refer to her as a "national treasure" speaks volumes about the quality and value of her work. It is also precisely why I take notice when I hear Louise call anything "amazing."

"What's amazing is everybody talks about the correlation between dollar direction and commodities, but the dollar has done absolutely nothing, flat for months, yet gold went up and oil went down, so there was no correlation," says Yamada. This means "the dollar is starting to lose that correlation perhaps because the perception of the dollar as the reserve currency is starting to drift away."

As much as that supports Yamada's belief that the dollar is in structural decline, the weak dollar/weak oil phenomenon could also be an indictment of a weak economy. For further proof of that she points to interest rates which "had seen higher lows in 2010 and 2011 and now those lows are being breached."

For Yamada this suggests we could be looking at a more serious global slowdown than we think. "What's more disconcerting to me now is...evidence at the long end, where interest rates were starting to pick up, is now dissolving and that I think is problematic in the sense that it's telling us that there is more fear and concern out there."

Geez Louise, you're bumming me out. But if she is right, expect crude oil to "stay in a low trading range of $67 to $90" and gold to make its way towards $2000 an ounce.

"Gold is in a structural bull market. It has maintained its 2009 uptrend on every pull back that has taken place and now you've had a rather accelerated advance to $1800," says Yamada.

Perhaps to assuage Macke -who confessed to buying back into gold after selling it in a move only he could describe as having all "the discipline and restraint of Charlie Sheen at the Adult Video Awards"- Yamada says since 2009 we have seen a series of 20% gains followed by consolidation and "would use any weakness to continue to add to positions." She "absolutely loves gold!"

Add it all up and this Friend of Breakout says it encourages her to stay on the sidelines. "It suggests there's confusion, there's not a definitive trend, and if there's not a trend you shouldn't be playing."

Are you in or out of commodities? Let us know in the comment section below or via email: breakoutcrew@yahoo.com

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106 comments

  • Tony Toro  •  9 months ago
    GOT GOLD?
  • Sylvester McMonkey-McBean  •  9 months ago
    So...New Value...how you feeling about gold today? Oh, maybe your "billionaire" wasn't happy about you spending time on Yahoo instead of "managing his finances". LOL You've got the L sign on your forehead.
  • Sylvester McMonkey-McBean  •  9 months ago
    Jeff has GOT to be happy he moved back into gold! S&P down almost 4% while gold is climbing to yet another record high!

    You can't eat paper stocks!!! Stocks are only worth what people think they are worth. Paper has almost no intrinsic value. It doesn't even glitter. It blows away in the wind.

    Physical gold and silver!!! Forever!!!
  • JTM  •  9 months ago
    What happened to the gold bubble? It looks like the bubble is going to get bigger as long as the current legislators are in place...for at least another year. As long as the dollar loses value, gold will continue to go up, and inflation is showing no signs of slowing down. It has occurred to me many people talking about the gold bubble don't understand the technicals.
  • Dasafac Jack  •  9 months ago
    Watch for OPEC to peg the price of oil to gold instead of the dollar or any other currency.
    "Those who are foolish are not always fools."
    ...Dasafac Jack
    • LOL 9 months ago
      As unpredictabe as the dollar may seem to be at the current time, gold is more unpredictable. It would be a huge risk for OPEC to peg oil to gold so they will not do this. Oil has done just fine in terms of making money for OPEC for the past 11 years, why risk losing it....
  • didimauw  •  9 months ago
    if all I had were paper gold, I'd short it tomorrow. With Chavez demanding Venezuela's gold and saying he wants physical possession of it, gold prices are going to take off. Paper gold however is going to tank. Why? If Chavez gets his way, banks like JPM will lose ALL of the physical gold in their vaults. Call it a governmental bank run. Try to take possession of your paper gold tomorrow and see what happens. They sold what they had in physical storage a hundred times. Sort of like how they borrow money out but only have 5% of the loaned out available. You may see 1,850 or worse by close on Friday. Tomorrow is going to be a gold field day. Going to be interesting to see if the Central Banks that have been manipulating the price to remain below 1,800 (and barely succeeding) can keep it up as people the world over clamor for physical. Kitco is OUT of 1oz bars and starting to run short on other types of bullion. Coin shops might be buying old gold up, but they are also running out of bullion. Yep, going to be an interesting day tomorrow.
  • w  •  9 months ago
    Be careful with buying Gold. It is at a all time High. The dollar will always tell the true value of Gold, not the other way around. We may see $2200 an oz. of Gold, but it will be back to $800 as we correct this Major Economic issue. If the economy does not correct then your $50,000, $100,000 or $100,000,000 worth of Gold will not save you.
    The one's that will be hurt the most are the $5,000 to $50,000 Gold investor. Be Careful.
  • Honest John  •  9 months ago
    The most telling comment she made is the dollar is going away as reserve currency.That is enough to sell me on buying gold and silver.If reserve status goes away the dollar will be as worthless as the peso.
  • Jack Goldman  •  9 months ago
    $4,000 gold, $4,000 Dow by 2020. Massive defaults needed on baby boomer entitlements to right this ship of fools. Own what you use, commodities. Trouble ahead. Beware.
  • steve r  •  9 months ago
    Gold right now is being bought then delivered....demand=price. Silver is "played" in the commodities...no delivery. If silver was bought and delivered....the price would rise quickly
    Texas Hunt bros took silver from $4 to $50 merely by taking possession ...30 years ago.
    When bank A sells bank B 500,000 ounces and only on paper; nobody could argue with that volume...nobody until the London traders happily told their friends how the bankers were doing it and "killing" the market. Just one fat cat with a checkbook...and a vault ..and up..
  • Yahoo User 1  •  9 months ago
    People say it is impractical to carry a pocket of gold for everyday purchases. What if some group were to serve as a numerical depository for a person's purchased physical gold reserves (a gold bank). Then you would make payments for everyday purchases with a debit card that would transfer your gold assets just like you do with current banks and your dollar holdings. Sounds to me like a monetary system built on gold would be fairly easy to implement on a worldwide practical scale. Talk about a one world currency that would be hard for governments to regulate without police-like action...I don't know if the outcome would be good or bad for the world if this happened. Probably like everything else - there would be winners and losers, just different winners and losers perhaps.

    Do any of you know whether anyone has proposed this yet or not; i.e. someone in a position to make it happen?
    • George 9 months ago
      The Austrians: Jeff Rigenbauch, Robert Murphy, Thomas DiLorenzo; Vonmises.org.
    • Joe Black 9 months ago
      They have hotels in the U.A.E. with vending machines that dispense bars of gold. All of the resources in America and we have 1 in 5 kids living in poverty? Wake up.
    • Thinker 9 months ago
      The problem is that gold does not correlate with economic production. So if 100 cars were sold for 100 gold coins (assume the only supply of gold in the world), and then production of cars increased to 150, then the car maker would not be able to sell the 150 cars for 150 gold coins since there are only 100 gold coins in the world. Hence use of gold for financial transactions is not practical in the economy.
  • thedoc  •  9 months ago
    We've had years of economic disasters and natural disasters that affect our economy. I expect that to continue and an eventual inflationary period where currencies are pitted against each other and gold. Therefore long term bullish in gold, Swiss Franc and the like.
  • TheAdvocate  •  9 months ago
    An ounce of gold is an ounce of gold of constant value: therefore, it is the dollar (and other currencies) that decrease in value because of the increasing supply. The supply is constantly increasing because of politicians using their authority to borrow money from their people (increasing deficits); and then, monetize it through the banking system via fractional reserve banking.Ordinary people can fight back by using their fiat money to accumulate gold and silver, coins and bullion.
  • anarchist  •  9 months ago
    Yes. I am much more concerned about the lack of correlation between gold, $, and oil than I am about our $14.4T of debt, our $1.5T deficit, and the Islamic terrorist we have in the White House.
    • Yahoo User 1 9 months ago
      Dear Anarchist,

      With your statement above are you being sarcastic, honest, or both? I think all you mention above are dangerous issues facing Americans today.
    • anarchist 9 months ago
      Sarcasm. This woman is an idiot. What are the causes and what are the effects? I worry about causes, not effects.
  • Joe Black  •  9 months ago
    No sector is defensive when it comes to a slowing global economy. My healthcare stocks plunged 30% or more over the past few months, even when I bought under cash value.
  • InvisibleHand  •  9 months ago
    I agree 100% with the analysis, which is rare or never when reading most mindless YF articles. I echo the author's view on gold. I was in a few years ago, then got out at $1250 because the charts/growth seemed unsustainable. Recently I have bought back in because of the dollar woes and US deficit debauckle. There is no good news for US or dollars, so that is a recipe for at least $2500 per ounce gold.
  • steve r  •  9 months ago
    Jeff...I know you don't want to hear this...buy silver also. It will only take one rich guy buying to send it way up. Study resources and reserves; weigh against use...sort of like oil. How much is there?...will use go down? If the answer is finite and continued use....place a bet...its cheap
    • InvisibleHand 9 months ago
      silver to gold mutiples are not good. value of silver is no more than 1/40 of gold. 1700/40 = 41... so dont expect any profit from silver anytime soon.
  • Sam  •  9 months ago
    Now more two third of the demand for gold comes from investors....what does that say ?
    • Thinker 9 months ago
      Too much speculation.
    • InvisibleHand 9 months ago
      NO, gold has never been an industrial metal... do your homework, thats not a concern.
    • J 9 months ago
      2/3 of demand from investors, but only a small fraction of world population are investing in Gold. When more of the sheeple awake to the folly of fiat the resultant surge in new investors will push prices much higher, even as the percentage of demand from investors also increases.
  • Sam  •  9 months ago
    Gold and Oil are doing better than the dollar today, but when OEMs start producing hybrids in masses, dollar will be back and the other two will see DEPRESSION. Having a hybrid already, I don't need gold or oil to live. Natural gas or solar plants will all be needed to make plastics or lighten up homes. Oil and Gold both are overrated just as they were in 1970s.
  • Andy  •  9 months ago
    Value of US treasuries are up and gold is up. They are pretty stable though.

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