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Gold & Silver: “False Breakdowns” Create Good Buying Opportunities

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Gold and even silver are looking good to J.C Parets, a market technician and founder of AllStarCharts.com, despite breaking widely viewed critical support levels late last year.

For those who were preoccupied with things like family and weren't paying attention, the precious metals have had a crazy trip since Christmas. The largest gold and silver ETF's, (GLD) and (SLV) respectively, hit 1-month lows on December 27th only to come screaming back in the first day of trading for 2012.

The sharp reversals look like a prime opportunity for traders to get long with defined risk. Parets notes "false moves create fast moves in the opposite direction."

Obviously we saw a rip-snorting bull rush in the metals yesterday but Parets says playing gold and silver long is the right play now, regardless of missing the lows of last week. Using gold levels as an example, the chartist sees $1,550 as "fixed lows" that stopped out gold holders last week. Those automatic sell orders tend to bite traders in the back side when a move proves illusory, giving a bid to metals and muting any sell-off.

"With proper risk management" Parets wants to buy silver and gold against the lows made December 27th. That gives holders a 5 - 10% downside risk with upside resistance much higher. Trading is all about risk versus reward and Parets likes his chances on the precious metals.

Parets makes a good case but markets are always subjective. We want to know what you think, let me know via Twitter @Jeffmacke or in the comment section below.

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58 comments

  • Scott  •  4 months ago
    Silver is something I can actually hand to my children one day.
    • BKG1949 4 months ago
      and they will thank you for it.
    • james B. 4 months ago
      Every cloud Has a SILVER lineing !
    • JHOWA 4 months ago
      yep , im a silver bug from the 80s...was handed it by my parents , use the recent rise to pay off bills as well as studentloans for my kids...now im building the nest for the grand kids among other investments.....
  • Ed  •  Eugene, Oregon  •  4 months ago
    Gold and Silver are manipulated (supressed) by the big banks like JPM.
    • Ed_B 4 months ago
      Yes, they are... and the US government is an active co-conspirator in this farce. It's all about protecting the US dollar from its own inherent value. The more of them that are printed, the less each one is actually worth. This is NOT a secret. None of this is a theory. It can be proved. Add to that, inflation is inevitable with fiat currencies and so, therefore, is the rising value of precious metals. If you have wealth and want to preserve its buying power, DO NOT save it in a bank as dollars. What would you rather have... $50,000 worth of gold or paper money from 1960?
    • JHOWA 4 months ago
      all correct...add in the stock market as well
  • ben  •  4 months ago
    I am interested in buying gold coins or silver not a big amount like 1/10th and ounce or 2/10ths but im not sure if its worth it after the taxes and everything.
    • Donald Smith 4 months ago
      It's not. u'll buy retail and sell wholesale plus the tax in some states as u say.
    • Scott 4 months ago
      Buy from a local reputable coin shop. The "we buy gold and silver" guys. Buy silver. Pay no more than $4 over spot for silver eagles, and $3 over spot for 10 oz bars. When inflation (and gold) take off, gold/silver will recorrect to 10:1 ratio. Just my opinion. Just get some while it's cheap. It may get cheaper end of month.
    • Scott 4 months ago
      Don, what taxes?
  • BKG1949  •  Montoursville, Pennsylvania  •  4 months ago
    I am a long time investor of physical gold and silver. For all of you who are also, at the risk of being political (I hate politics). Keep in mind Ron Paul would like to see the US go back to the gold standard on our currency. That may at a glance sound great, but in order to do that and to have enough bullion to back up the dollar the government would have to do what FDR did and basically confiscate your gold and make it illegal for citizens to own gold. Ford repealled that during his short presidency, but none the less the question needs asked, could it happen again? Food for thought.
    • AHT2853 4 months ago
      I know of people in the '30s who did not go along with FDR's stunt. Same thing will happen now if the gov't tries it again. If they don't know it's there, they can't take it.
    • gary 4 months ago
      Wouldnt it all depend on how much gold backed the dollar? It wouldnt be 1/1. Not even 10/1. not even 100/1 or1000/1. Maybe 10000/1 or100,000/1. Would they have to take ours so we wouldnt be rich?
    • Really! 4 months ago
      This is a moot point, as none of the other Redumlican candidates share Paul's interest in reviving the gold standard, and he has as much chance of becoming the nominee as does the shrub on my front lawn.
  • Psychedelico  •  4 months ago
    Deflation is impossible with a central bank whose sole existence is to print more money as needed so that debts can continue to be paid off with interest. I don't need to Google anything, Sam Paulin. M1 is not nearly as important as M2 and M3. Now that I can pay debt electronically, cash does not have to be in my hands for me to pay that debt off. Thusly, deflation is impossible, since even the Fed is going to have a tough time reining in money supply through raising interest rates, being that there is so much debt out there, raising rates is going to be a slow and tedious process that will only have the effect to eat up small amounts of extra cash people and businesses have available. You are wrong on Deflation, as it is a non-existent farce. If prices began crashing and spiraling downward, do you not think Bernanke would literally FLOOD the nation with cash? He'd open up the lending window to consumers if need be. Anything he had to do to stop it he would. This is why, with a central bank, inflation is INEVITABLE. This makes gold and silver's rise also INEVITABLE. Calling gold and silver mor plentiful then US dollars is the biggest joke I've ever heard. Lets ask China if they wouldn't trade their trillion plus US dollars for gold, even if they could somehow do it without crushing the remaining value of the dollar... I bet you wouldn't find anybody there claiming the dollar was more valuable then gold---nor more scarce.
    • ray 4 months ago
      Inflation is impossible with no wage growth. The existence of a central bank does not make inflation inevitable. Gold and silver crashed from the early 80's to 2000. The central bank was around that whole time.
    • Scott 4 months ago
      Fed wasn't printing then ray. Tool.
    • Mr. X 4 months ago
      Ray, inflation is very possible without wage growth. There a millions of people alive who can vouch for that as they have lived through it.
      The first effect of inflation will be the destruction of savings - not that big of a problem in the US, as most people have debt and not savings. The second effect is lowering of a standard of living and the raise of poverty.
  • Time4change  •  4 months ago
    Sooo, which is the false move, this one up or the last one down.
  • rl  •  Surfside, California  •  4 months ago
    If you bought gold in 2000 sell or hold. If you bought gold recently you are caught in the hype.

    Break even for gold producers is around 400 dollars but new mining discoveries and new technology are projected to bring that cost down to 230 in 2 years. So buy the hype so you can buy high and sell low.
  • waf  •  New York, New York  •  4 months ago
    Jeff's opinions have a shelf life of 24 hours. Physical gold is widely available, physical silver, not so much. The paper GLD and SLV, and Comex, will see declines as nobody trusts them.
  • Not Convinced  •  4 months ago
    The world used over 1 billion ounces of Silver last year and uses more every year. The world produced only 700 million ounces in that same time. In the last 100 years the industrial revolution has consumed( that means it is gone) the stockpile of Silver mined in the history of the world. The US alone had over 2 billion ounces strategic reserve at the end of WW II, that is all gone, every ounce. You can listen to the #$%$ or you can observe the fundamentals. Supply and demand show that not only are we at the beginning of an epic bull market for Silver but that if you are a young person you will live to see Silver become more valuable than Gold. Laugh now but the US Geological Survey states that Silver will be the first element on the periodic table to be depleted.It is already more rare than Gold in total ounces above ground. Remember that almost all Silver is produced as a by- product of mining other metals and that all off that metal is sold before it is produced and every ounce will be consumed. Thoughts from an Alaskan Gold Miner. ( I sell my Gold and BUY SILVER) Happy New Year keep stacking everybody you aint seen nothin yet!
  • jaykay  •  4 months ago
    year after year we continue to have the same arguments about the value of gold and year after year gold inexorably marches higher and higher. obviously, the more abundant the dollar is, the more expensive gold will be. short term price swings are meaningless. th
  • Popcorn said FU  •  4 months ago
    there's a difference between physical metals and paper, buy the real thing or you might get burned
  • The Road Warrior  •  Sparks, Nevada  •  4 months ago
    If you are trying to invest in gold and silver as though they were stocks (eg charts, moving averages, support levels, etc.), you're buying for the wrong reason.
  • Dennis  •  Fargo, North Dakota  •  4 months ago
    Deleveraging and deflation is here, but silver and gold is not in a bubble. Fiat currencies will rise and fall against each other, but ALL of them will continue to fall against the precious metals. However, the end-game is near, as history shows that the average life-span of a fiat currency is 40 years. Our federal reserve notes became fiat in 1971 when Nixon cut the remaining tie to gold. Adding 40 years to 1971 brings us to 2011. We are now on borrowed time....
  • Frank  •  Lanham, Maryland  •  4 months ago
    This is the beginning of the Golden Years for gold. Buy now while gold is still a bargain. It is about to skyrocket as the euro and dollar plummets--again. The banks are feverishly buying and holding on to gold. What does that tell you?
  • RobS  •  4 months ago
    That chart isn't bullish. Lower highs and lower lows isn't a bull signal. The buyers are entitled to load up -- and it might be part of a much longer up move, but the double top last summer into lower highs in November isn't bullish. If you are trading it long, have a stop or some puts ready.
  • Tim  •  Columbus, Ohio  •  4 months ago
    fixed low??? #$%$? gold is mostly paper.
  • Omega  •  4 months ago
    Should have discussed the Silver market's manipulation. Where is that report?
  • wet  •  Atlanta, Georgia  •  4 months ago
    No government will back a gold standard. Simply can't be done as that would take out the control of governments to manipulate the money supply; e.g. QE1 & 2.
  • joe  •  Irvine, California  •  4 months ago
    The interview should give his price target when to get in and when to get out.
    Otherwise, no help at all to the viewer.
    A dime a dozen...be more specific to track this dude's success/failure.
  • cinna23  •  Elmhurst, Illinois  •  4 months ago
    Unless you think hyperinflation is going to happen next year, Gold stinks. It's at it's high but Over over the last 30 years the price has increased 6 fold(a weak 6% yield over 30 years) and now its at an all time high. The question is when will it fall. Stocks are a better bet.
    Try to remember, Jeff--BUY LOW, SELL HIGH.

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