Every day is a good day to buy gold of late. It's an intoxicating state of affairs for those of us who already own the barbaric metal, which is exactly the problem. Being inordinately giddy over an investment, what Tony Montana called "getting high on your own supply", generally ends quite poorly.
The question isn't so much whether or not gold has worked. It has. The question is if it's too late to enter or if this is a prudent time to take some profits. With the fundamentals widely understood, Breakout turned to technical analyst Peter Lee of UBS to give us the picture from the view of a chart analyst. His opinion isn't likely to sober up the bulls.
"Gold is headed higher," Lee says. "Gold is a great call. We don't think it's speculative at these current levels." Discounting for inflation Lee sees the most precious of metals heading into the $2,000's.
His view gets slightly more bullish, at least for a trade. "Historically the last move up on a commodity based rally is a parabolic move." Are we entering that portion of the gold rally now? Hard to say. Gold has moved away from it's trendline and moving average but hasn't done anything resembling the spectacular spike silver made in April. Since gold's rally started, notes Lee, gold has repeatedly tested its uptrends and moving averages and held every time, leading to ever rising moves. Lee isn't betting against it happening again.
Touching on Silver, Lee sees it consolidating its multi-year move in a range from the mid-30's to low-40's. He says these are your levels to watch for a short-term trade. But the long term outlook is for a big move higher, that eventually sees silver prices climbing to $100/oz. For patient investors just buy it now as far as Peter Lee is concerned.
Lee's bottom line: Buy gold on dips, or just about any day. Don't bother making it complicated by trying to do so in non-dollar denominated currencies (e.g. buying gold in Euros as a bet that the Euro will drop faster than the dollar). Buy the SPDR Gold Shares etf (GLD) for the liquidity.
94 comments