It didn't take much to bring beleaguered gold traders back from the brink. Jitters in Japan and fear over the Fed have stoked a reversal in gold that follows a seven month, 25% slump.
While the most widely traded metal is still only about $25 away from the two and a half year low it hit in April, Paul Schatz, president of Heritage Capital, thinks there's currently a lot more upside than downside in gold.
"This is probably only half or three-quarters of the way done," Schatz says in the attached video of the long-term rally in gold. In fact, in a recent note to clients he wrote, "I do not believe there is enough evidence at this time to conclude that the secular bull market in gold has ended."
What that means, Schatz predicts, is that "if you give gold 3-5% on the downside, I think your upside is probably 15%," which would push gold north of $1500 again. Not only does he think it is "way too early" to give up on gold given what's happening in Japan and Europe, Schatz thinks most investors have it wrong.
"I'm a very big believer in the masses being embarrassingly wrong at major turning points," Schatz writes to clients, adding that the skepticism about the metal's future has gotten ahead of itself.
"The sentiment right now in gold is worse, more negative from 'mom and pop,' or the average person, than it was when gold was $235 an ounce," he says. "This is the all-time most bearish sentiment ever in gold. You can't find any time where people were more negative on gold," says Schatz.
His contrarian advice is simple.
"If you give it a little room I think the next big move in gold is to the upside."
- Commodity Markets
- Paul Schatz