Greece Out, Euro Up: Jon Najarian

J - Germany is the largest single holder of Greek debt, but some large US banks are holding credit default swap contracts on the Greek debt and will therefore be held accountable for losses incurred by the holders of Greek debt in the event of a default. Of course if this causes any large US bank to become insolvent, the US taxpayer will foot the cost of shoring up the bank. Bank executive bonuses are not expected to be affected in any event.

I'd like to know which European banks hold the most Greek debt as a percentage of total assets. This article acts like all is well once Greece is out of the EU, but there are going to be some foreign banks that take a nasty hit.

Shouldn't you say Greece will leave the eurozone, and not the EU? They are different.

Very few people knew about Lehman until the monday morning announcement.
Somebody.....other than us....knows the counterparty risk involved with Greece.
Nobody cares about Greece.
The EU has only one mandate....saving the Euro.
The Fed has only one mandate.....maintaining world reserve currency status.
Either of these two situations change......the entire system inplodes.

How will the Greece debt destruction which is inevitable.......reflect in the derivatives market....that is the only concern....evrything else is just to keep the media busy while we are waiting for the outcome.
So we just won't know until the first missed payment.....just guessing.
The EU and ECB and IMF are jsut avoiding Lehman weekend.....but it is coming without fail.
The greeks have no way to implement the conditions imposed byt the bailout.
It is so stupid.
"We know you can never pay......but we will loan you the money anyway if you let us tie you to the whipping post and give you 1000 lashes in a public display........and you will still owe us the money.......so we can lash you again if we feel like it......okay ??......do we have a deal ????"

I will say it again and again. As a Spaniard, and therefore European, it amazes me that I see no one single guess from Europe coming in and talking. Your view of the situation is completely different than how we see it here.

It just makes no sense that we would talk and talk and talk about the USA here in Europe, without bringing a single American to the conversation. I'm sure you wouldn't be happy.

Please, get some greeks, french, germans, spaniards... into that show. There are tons of excellent economics and traders on this side of the atlantic. It might surprise you to have a different point of view of things.

Won't a stronger Euro just kill Italian, French, Spanish export in an already weak recovery ?

How do I make money off of this?

So a tsunami of new printed Euros (yesterday another 700 billion added) should make the Euro stronger?

There is only one solution: "Kick the lazy socialists out"

To many independent countries, with different cultures and different economical needs.
Its only a question of time, the " Southern Countries" have to leave the Euro zone.

Good interview. Makes the Greek situation much clearer in my mind. Holidays in Greece are going to be good value soon then and olive oil. Makes me wonder what happens in the states if one state gets into debt. Do they get bailed out? Should they be allowed to leave the US? Obviously the difference with Europe is too many different governments. Until there is one EU government a single EU currency is not going to work.

No way they're going to let Greece out. Once Greece goes, it's only a matter of time before Spain, Portugal, Ireland and Italy does the same thing. Then the only ones left that uses the Euro is basically Germany and France. That'll defeats the whole point of having a Euro. Besides, if Greece thinks it's bad now, wait until they get out of the Euro and all the banks in Greece fail overnight and everyone's savings wiped out. They'll be the poorest country in Europe for decades. The least painful solution is to cut their spending to get their deficit under control.

This is the most absurd financial article I have ever read: Greece would never leave the Euro because it would cause an unstoppable flight of capital making the new currency fall to little real value, bringing uncontrollable inflation and economic dire. This event would also cause a psychological domino effect to the other PIIGS making the Euro fall, not rise, and will cause a loss of credibility in the currency and the EU as an institution.
Even I live in Europe I am slowly selling my Euros.

Kick the lazy socialists out...either the Greeks should do it or the EU will. As Marcus Aurelius once told his soldiers..."Stand erect or be made to stand erect"....

Sure, debase the currency. Only a monetarist would think of a solution like that.

Greece is really a preliminary to what is about to happen in the US. So let's enjoy the distraction while it lasts, and keep pretending it's not gonna happen here.

My question is why should Germany stay in the EU? You don't want to be the last one to leave this party, that's for sure.

What the heck do you mean when you say
"Hey, if Greece could give the world democracy, it seems the least the U.S. can do is show the Greeks how to print money and issue debt.
Greece, being a socialist country, is the farthest thing from a democracy!

Najarian is smoking crack if he thinks that Greece's exit from EU will be positive for the Euro - is it any wonder that he and Macke are buddies? If Greece is gone, this is the beginning of the end for EU. The rest of the PIIGS will follow, credit spreads will go through the roof and the whole idea of the common currency is then out the window.

Nevermind the fact that their exit will be preceded by an avalanche of sovereign debt haircuts - when was the last time a massive credit event like that was actually good for any currencies other than the yen, swiss frank and dollar???

I sure would like to pick up some of that Greek debt and get some of that interest.

The question I have is this - is the interest high and the debacle cherished so because the banks can slurp up this interest with impunity (in which case I would like like a TARP fund rounding errors worth for my personal war chest)

or

Is this the Bear Stearns gambit, suck everyone in and then declare it a disaster and give the Crown Jewels away for a "penny" on the dollar to the determined winner?

or

Is this the AIG tact where we load it up for failure and then get the government to guarantee the cash stream into the future? (the Greek people are onto this concept ... but their just whinners right?)

there are so many angles, so many options to screw the suckers, and most won't care as long as their not part of sucker croud .... so we can pretty much play this anyway they let us take it!!!

How can I get in on the take?!?!???!!!!

Excellent.... Jon Najarian has given me confidence once again. I know I can make money on the down-up dollar trade. The sequence of Dollar/Euro trades will be by far the best $ maker of this year.

I do not believe Jon knows where exactly the cards will lay with the EUR/USD just yet. Too early to take a position.

In four to six weeks Jeff Macke (or if Jon believes sooner or later) you need to bring him back so he can confidently say to take a short position in Dollar's (UUP/ long-UDNT)) and go long Euro's (FXE). ... just as he did on Fast Money that Friday of March 06th, calling the FAS 18 bagger out-of the-money March 7.50 option trade.

Threaten to sell off land and islands to Turkey and you will get some fast action on debt and restructuring. It would make a nice beachfront for Hamas also.