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Jeff Hirsch: Dow 38,820 or Bust!

Jeff Macke
Breakout

Jeff Hirsch, editor of the perennial must-read Stock Trader's Almanac, has written a new book, "Super Boom: Why the Dow Will Hit 38,820 and How You Can Profit From It."

Now, the market historians among you may be quick to file Hirsch's latest effort with bubble-era tomes predicting stocks' straight shot to the stratosphere.

You may want to check that cynicism at the door in this case. Here are some reasons why:

*Hirsch's father is the legendary Yale Hirsch, famous for a call to buy stocks in the late '70's. Yale caught a mere 20-year bull market, which took the Dow 1,447% higher. Jeff's spent a lifetime at the knee of the legend and is using much the same logic here.

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*Unlike the books of the '90's, Hirsch is making his prediction after an extended period of market sound and fury signifying no meaningful gains for over a decade. Making the case for meaningful gains in the face of global unrest and entirely justifiable investor skepticism is entirely different than selling books to day-trading housewives.

*Hirsch's work makes sense if you actually read it. It's not just me saying so -- renowned smart-guy cynics such as Dougie Kass and Barry Ritholz agreed strongly enough to endorse the book at length. The three of us aren't given to hyping that which we don't believe.

*Hirsch is offering a specific time line which, like that of his father before him, isn't a howling cry to "Buy Now or Miss the Rally!" In both the book and on set, Jeff was willing to stick his neck out and offer specifics. Right or wrong, I respect the guy's guts and his reasoning.

Agree or disagree, it's an interview worth watching. Below is Jeff's outlook in graph form. Take it in, watch the clip with Nesto and me, and, as always, let us know what you think. Send an email to breakoutcrew@yahoo.com.

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