Jeff Hirsch: Dow 38,820 or Bust!

By the time the Dow hits 38,000, $38,000 will just about be enough to buy a latte at Starbucks...

im so so so so so so so confused... buy buy buy ...sell sell sell. invest the dow will take off.... the sky is falling the sky is falling.... who the hell are you going to believe.

I don't care to offer remarks about the author. I do feel however that he is overly optimistic after looking at only two cycles at which time our economy was in a super expansion mode. I disagree with Housewife Investor in her attempts to time the market. Not going to work. You'll become the sucker money with that scheme. Trust me... been there done it. Just keep dollar cost averaging in folks and ignore folks that claim sky high stock markets such as this author or the Harry Dent's of this world who think the sky is falling. The truth is always somewhere in the middle.

i'm seeing a flat line until 2020 then incredible growth...its a long time to wait

The Toronto Maple Leafs will win the Stanley Cup next year and the united states will have a balanced budget!!

more propaganda to get sideline investors into the market

This is idiocy. First off, there is ZERO relationship from a productivity/labor perspective between World Wars / Vietnam and "The War on Terror". Secondly, the current operations in the Middle East are 'forever wars'. Anyone who thinks that we are planning on exiting those operations has zero understanding of global energy issues. Thirdly, he bets on some new technological revolution -- without predicting what it will be or when it will happen. And yet, he miraculously feels comfortable putting a fixed number and timeframe on the Dow. .... Then the interview devolves into idiotic seasonal timing which has zero bearing on the overall longterm thesis of Dow 38,000. Sonny boy is trying to be like Papa. (He's tried before). It won't work. His understanding of macroeconomics is limited next to his belief in market cycles.

That is not exactly earth-shaking news!
An annual increase of about 5 1/2% will result in that!
That is actually BELOW historical increases

The only thing more irrational, unpredictable and illogical than short term market fluctuations are long term fluctuations. Super-long-term fluctuations are even less scrutable than short- and long-term fluctuations or trends. This is a fallacious, rear-view-mirror approach and is guaranteed to be wrong in either direction or magnitude or timing or all three, and if it isn't right on all three, it is worse than not helpful. That is because it will lead me to be bullheaded and hold onto my losing trades too long when they go against my predictions based on this projection. If it isn't reliable, it's worthless. The up side for this author is that if he's right, he's a genius. If he's wrong, nobody will remember by the time they can find out. He wins and sells a lot of books; just not to me.

I predict I'll see 40,000, if I can live long enough.

The Dow reached its 'peak' when all the non-investors got on board. The percent of investors went from 5 to 60 as the 'masses' discovered the stock market. This happened back between 1990 to 2000. Since then its bouncing around, as it should. Bernanke's freshly printed dollars has made the dow rise a bit, but it will soon fall back, as Bernanke is forced to stop printing.

Anybody giving a market forecast is clueless. But it can sure sell books.

I'm getting tired of big business and wall street's idea of 'money for nothing'. I wish America would embrace the idea of hard work, rolling up your shirt sleeves and earning our money. I know, I'm naive and idealistic. Still, I can dream.

Pure idiocy!! From a purchasing power perspecitve it doesn't matter whether the dow goes to 40,000 or 4,000 -- it is all about the amount of goods and services that you can purchase by owning one share of the dow (or whatever the investment in question is.) If we went into a steep deflation with the DOW at 4,000, but PE ratios at 40, then it stands to reason that commodity prices have fallen and one can buy many good and services by converting stocks into cash. If the dow goes to 40,000, but once ounce of gold also costs $40,000 and PE ratios are 5 or less, then you've lost purchasing power stupid!!!

Sure it goes up... but it looks like it will have a few dips first. Get a look at his graph at about Q3 2014 the dow is down around 7500 then. It is the ride from the end of 2012 to Q3 2014 that I am worried about. On his table the Dow drops from 14500 down to 7500 I take at 45% haircut not including the inflation impact, which is even greater that what we just went thru is 2008. Great news with Hyperinflation on the way... Looks like a Roubini "W" in effect. Who know's who to believe, maybe they are all right. Gawd I hope not.

Quack, quack, quack, quack.

last time people started talking about DOW 36K, markets crashed really hard. Clear sign of extreme optimism - really bad sign for markets.

Off course the DOW will be at 30 something, but who has the time to wait 20 years for that to happen... or more, what will that mean in terms of inflation?
I guess I prefer to stick to savings @ 2% for 20 years and whenever a rally, is there is any, start I can jump in the wagon

...and pigs can fly!

He forget to mention Dow index was dropping companies wich start underperform or bankrupt that way it's look like going only up long term