Americans are feeling for the first time like their generation will fare worse than the one before them, violating the upward mobility we feel is our birthright, at least in part because our economy is a depressing trainwreck, no matter how the economists label it. Unemployment is sky high and protesters have taken to the streets expressing their anger with the ineptitude in Washington, D.C. and corruption on Wall Street.
Reflecting the rage and cynicism, stocks sold off sharply earlier this year, then sat in a range for two months, before briefly hitting new lows. For the investors who haven't given up on stocks completely, sell-offs have met demand, triggering a rally just when no one thought one was possible.
If that sounds familiar it should. This is exactly what was going on in 1978 and '79, not to mention the Summer and Fall of 2011. Jeff Saut, chief investment strategist at Raymond James has been using the last years of the 70's as his analog for the current market for most of 2011. It's been a stunningly accurate road map and he sees no reason to ditch it just yet. Accordingly, Saut thinks the "selling climax" lows of last week -1075 on the S&P500 hit on October 4th- mark the bottom of the market for 2011 and probably for some time after that.
Beyond the ebb and flow of sentiment, Saut says the market will be driven by real improvements in the economy. His favorite "tell" for this view comes from the casual dining sector. As strange as it may sound, casual dining has "telegraphed every recession; at least in the last 41 years that (Saut) has been in the business." Foot traffic is strong, suggesting that the consumer is indulging, if only a little bit. To the dining data point Saut adds strength in Baltic freight and rail-car loadings as ample evidence for growth.
In addition Saut says the politicians currently in power are going to get run out of town in 2012. With them will go at least of a bit of what Saut, quoting Adam Smith, says is "the political corruption that prevents prosperity." Lawyers outnumber real human beings by 7 and 8 to 1 in the House and Senate respectively. Saut offers that almost any shift away from lawyers and career pols will be for the better, particularly if voters swap out the lawyers and in favor of business people from either the left or right.
Saut's not buying stocks like his hair's on fire, especially not with the widely followed McClellan Oscillator "as overbought as it's ever been" but he has been adding exposure on dips, a sharp departure from when he first went to cash last summer on the S&P500's break of 1320. With his book 25% in cash, if Saut errs it's going to be on the side of caution. But he's made his call: We've seen the lows, "generational lows" in some names, and it's time to start buying.
Is Saut too cautious, too brave, or just right? You know his thinking and you know how I'm seeing it. Now tell us how you're playing it in the comment section below.
38 comments